This Saturday #8 Michigan State will host #6 Michigan and this will be the fourth time that Michigan and Michigan State have met as unbeaten teams, but this will be the first time the schools will play after compiling robust 7-0 records.
The other matchups as unbeaten teams include 1999 and 2010 when both teams were 5-0, as well as 2005 when both were 4-0: the Spartans prevailed in 1999 and 2010, while Michigan prevailed in 2005.
Now comes 2021 and both Michigan and Michigan State boast unbeaten 7-0 records, and this will be the first time the two schools face each other as Top 10 teams since 1964. In fact in 1964, #4 Michigan beat #9 Michigan State 17-10. However, in 1961, #2 MSU beat #6 Michigan 28-0; in 1957, #2 MSU beat #5 Michigan 35-6; and in 1956, #2 MSU beat #4 Michigan 9-0. So, the Spartans have historical success in these Top 10 matchups.
In spite of all the games that have been played since the series commenced in 1898 including the lop sided win total in favor of Michigan, nevertheless ever since Mike Hart disparagingly referred to the Spartans as “little Brothers” the Spartans have won 9 of the past 13 meetings, while Jim Harbaugh is a middling 3-3 in the series.
So now the stage is set for an intriguing late October matchup of Top 10 teams that no one expected after last season.
Last season shook the foundation:
Let’s remember, last year Michigan State finished the season with a 2-5 record underscored by its worst Rushing Offense in history.
Michigan, on the other hand, finished 2-4 last season with a Defense that yielded an average of 35 Points per game including a crushing 49-11 defeat to Wisconsin whereby Wisconsin relentlessly pounded Michigan’s Rushing Defense for 341 Yards. Fortunately, Michigan escaped playing Ohio State last season or their season record would have arguably been worse.
Now comes 2021 and both Michigan and Michigan State boast unbeaten 7-0 records, and each team is improved in all phases.
This season, Michigan’s Offense is averaging a robust 250 Yards Rushing and 38 Points per game, while their Defense is yielding just 14 Points per game. On the other hand, the Spartans are averaging a very balanced 200 Yards Rushing, 250 Yards Passing and 34 Points per game, while on Defense the Spartans are yielding slightly less than 19 points per game.
Three common opponents:
Michigan and Michigan State have played 3 common opponents including Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern.
And while both schools compiled victories vs those common opponents, nevertheless trying to compare the statistical value of those wins is an unreliable indicator at best. Yet, for what it’s worth, the Spartans beat those common opponents by a cumulative score of 92-54 (38 point margin) while Michigan compiled a cumulative score of 85-49 (36 point margin). Without splitting hairs, Michigan and Michigan State virtually achieved the same result in victories vs common opponents, so not much is learned.
In other “key” statistical categories (I sometimes refer to as prime statistical indicators) including 3rd Down Conversions, Red Zone Scoring efficiency, Turnover Margin, Sack’s and Sack’s Allowed, it’s hard to find a definitive edge for either team.
In terms of highs and lows, the Spartans rank #5 in the land in terms of Team Sack’s with 3.7 per game, yet rank a dismal #107 in terms of 3rd Down efficiency by converting just 35% of their chances. Meanwhile, Michigan ranks #2 in the land in terms of Sack’s Allowed per game, allowing just 0.43 (zero point 43), yet rank #70 in the land in terms of Team Sack’s posting just 2.14 per game.
What does all of that mean? It means neither team is dominating the football landscape, yet neither team is beating themselves.
At the bottom line (Michigan is 4 point favorite, but Spartans are finding ways to win):
Let’s remember, the Spartans have won 2 of the last 4 meetings, and 9 of the last 13.
The Spartans have also won 3 of the last 4 meetings when both teams were ranked in the Top 10 stretching back to 1956, but frankly those Top 10 contests from 1956 to 1964 may be interesting, yet its ancient history and doesn’t carry a lot of meaning.
As we look at recent history, we should note that Jim Harbaugh was supposed to be a Quarterback guru, a Quarterback whisperer if you like, but since he took the reins at Michigan in 2015, Michigan’s Pass Offense has been remarkably, unremarkable.
In fact, this season, Michigan’s Pass Offense is ranked 104th in the land (when measured against 130 D-1 Schools), averaging just 190 Yards per game. Of course, that is enough Passing Yardage when Michigan is pounding out 300 Yards or more Rushing as they did against Western Michigan, Washington and Northern Illinois for example, but how will Michigan handle the pressure this weekend when Michigan State “loads the box” and forces Michigan to throw off schedule?
Michigan’s game vs Rutgers is somewhat informative.
For example, Michigan attempted 39 running plays vs Rutgers but only gained 112 Yards Rushing at less than 3 Yards per Rushing attempt, and Michigan’s Passing Offense had problems as well, only gaining 163 Yards while failing to score a Passing Touchdown.
In fact, Michigan was held scoreless in the 2nd Half vs Rutgers and held on for dear life to eke out a 20-13 victory, but Michigan may not be so fortunate against the Spartans..
By all measures, Michigan’s challenge will be considerably more daunting when they face the Spartans on the road at Spartan Stadium. While the Spartans Rushing Defense is not considered dominant, on the other hand it is “stingy”, yielding an average of just 120 Yards Rushing per game, and if the Spartan Rushing Defense can hold Michigan to 200 Yards Rushing or less (which is a viable possibility) and if Michigan has to rely upon their Passing Offense to save the day, then the odds swing heavily in favor of the Spartans.
Of course football games are still played on the football pitch, and we know the Spartans are finding unscripted ways to win: are the Spartans transitioning from pretenders to contenders?
We’ll get another indicator this Saturday in a matchup of Top 10 teams that no one expected after last season…
Thank you for reading.
