A win is a win…but warning signals abound

No football team ever needs to make excuses for winning a football game, but when a team is analyzing post game film and charting “fundamentals” then Michigan State is looking at multiple problems and disturbing trend lines.

Let’s start with Rushing the football.

Remember last year when the Spartans posted their worst Rushing Offense in history with an average of just 91 Yards per game? Well, Saturday night the Cinderella Rushing story of 2021 was exposed and the Rushing Offense is not as pretty as originally portrayed.

The Spartans Rushing Offense posted just 71 Yards Rushing at just 2.4 Yards per attempt, and that’s 255 Yards less than their opening game at Northwestern.

In fact, the Spartans Rushing Offense has declined measurably each week as it has gone from robust to dismal. Let’s take a look at the Spartans Rushing swoon over the past 4 games:

  • Northwestern 326
  • Youngstown State 272
  • Miami 193
  • Nebraska 71

.What’s the takeaway?

Opponents have dissected the Spartans on film, broken down tendencies, and adjusted accordingly each week.

In the first game against Northwestern, Kenneth Walker III made headlines by bouncing outside on the first play, getting to the edge and racing down the sideline for a Touchdown. In fact, Walker pounded out 264 Yards Rushing vs Northwestern including 4 TD’s mostly by getting to the edge.

And Walker successfully replicated a variation of that running technique vs Youngstown State and Miami.

But Saturday night, Nebraska’s Defense forced Walker inside and consequently Walker finished the game with just 61 Yards Rushing and zero TD’s.

But the Offensive problems are bigger then Kenneth Walker III.

Prior to Nebraska, the Spartan Offense was averaging 520 Yards and 264 Yards Rushing, but Nebraska turned the Spartans Offense to custard, and here is a summary:

  • 71 Yards Rushing at just 2.4 Yards per attempt
  • 254 Yards of Total Offense
  • Offense was outgained 442 to 254
  • Offense posted just 5 Yards of Total Offense in 2nd Half…and just 1 Yard in the 4th Qtr
  • The Spartans converted just 1 of 10, 3rd Down attempts

Those stats are reminiscent of 2020 and we know the dismal Offensive production of 2020 won’t play well in Big Ten competition.

 

At the bottom line (the Big Ten schedule gets more ominous from week to week):

In two weeks the Spartans travel to Rutgers, yet the perennial “Big Ten doormat” from Piscataway, NJ is now amongst the most imposing Defensive teams in the Big Ten, and Rutgers can thank Head Coach, Greg Schiano for its Defensive resurgence.

When measured against 130 D-1 Schools, Rutgers Defense is ranked #8 Scoring (yielding just 13.5 Points per game to be exact)…and #11 Total Defense (yielding just 263 Yards per game).

Measured within the Big Ten, Rutgers Defense ranks #1 Pass D…#2 Total D…and #3 Points per game!

It’s worth noting, prior to playing Rutgers, Michigan was boasting a Rushing Offense that averaged 350 Yards per game, and 47 Points per game. And yet Rutgers yielded just 112 Yards Rushing to Michigan and held Michigan scoreless in the 2nd Half.

Of course, Michigan held on for dear life to win 20-13, yet for a team favored by 3 Touchdown’s, in my view the game was a technical loss for Jim Harbaugh and Michigan.

The Spartans victory was also a Technical loss in my view. While the Spartans outscored Nebraska on the scoreboard, nevertheless the Spartans suffered a technical loss statistically, and let us be honest, Special Team heroics won’t bailout the Spartans from week to week during the Big Ten season.

In closing, beat writers have been complimenting the Spartan Defense for beating Nebraska, but I have a hard time celebrating a Defense that yielded 440 Yards of Total Offense.

The Spartans got a win…but they have a huge number of problems to fix (again), and the primary focus goes back to fixing the Offensive Line.

So, I hope Mel Tucker and his staff enjoyed Saturday night, but I also hope they are back to work on Sunday, because they have a lot of work to do across all 3 phases of football.

 

Thank you for reading.

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