It depends upon how you look at it.
While Brad Salem is the Spartans “new” Offensive Coordinator, on the other hand he isn’t new to Spartan football inasmuch as he has been on Mark Dantonio’s staff since 2011. So the playbook will essentially be the same, the plays and playbook jargon will essentially be the same and there will be continuity among coaches and players.
What is likely to change will be Offensive tendencies: the customary huddle will be interspersed with occasional no huddle…and there will be alternating change of tempo between Shotgun…Pistol…and/or direct snap under center. Yet I will argue, every single play that will be called on Friday night is currently within the Spartans playbook, so the nuance will be “what plays will be called…and when?”. Will Salem’s Offense look and feel fresh? Will the players respond with enthusiasm? Will the players respond instinctively instead of mechanically?
Most importantly, will the “new” offense move the chains with efficiency? In that context, it can be quantified.
At the end of the night we should be able to measure a minimum of 200 Yards Rushing…200 Yards Passing…accompanied by 30 Points on the scoreboard and thereby complemented by a positive Turnover Margin.
Let’s make this clear, 400 Yards per game is not heroic. In fact, 400 Yards would rank in the bottom 50 percentile of 129 Division 1 teams in 2018, yet 400 Yards and 30 points would be nearly 60 Yards and 12 points more per game than the Spartans averaged last season. Interestingly, the Spartans haven’t averaged more than 400 Yards per game since 2014. So, while 400 Yards is not heroic production nevertheless it is a meaningful measurement for the first game of the season. I declare 400 Yards is mandatory, and a minimum!
What underscores the importance of posting 400 Yards is the fact the Spartans will be hosting Tulsa a team that deploys one of the worst Defenses in all of Division 1 football, so it is critical that the Spartans “exert their will” and execute plays at Salem’s beckoned call. What does that mean? It means running and moving the chains even if Tulsa loads the “Box”. It means passing and moving the chains even if Tulsa denies the passing lanes. There are games when an team has to take what the Defense “gives”…but there are games when a team has to exert their “Will” and take what they want, when they want, and this Friday, the Spartan Offense must “exert their will” and take what they want.
Tulsa has struggled to earn respect under Philp Montgomery:
Tulsa is a private university founded in 1894 with a tiny student body that totals less than 4500. The “Golden Hurricane” ply their trade in the American Athletic Conference along with other non “Power 5” schools such as UConn, East Carolina, Memphis, Southern Methodist, Temple and Tulane to name a few.
Amidst that backdrop of opponents, Tulsa has floundered for the past 4 years under Head Coach, Philip Montgomery. It’s noteworthy that Montgomery earned his stripes as the Offensive Coordinator and Quarterback Coach in the prolific Baylor Offenses during Head Coach Art Briles tenure from 2008 to 2014, but Tulsa hasn’t come close to the success of Baylor inasmuch as Tulsa has posted just 21 victories offset by 29 losses over the past 4 years, including just one winning season, and 1 Bowl victory.
Moreover, in two of the previous 4 years, Tulsa’s Defense has been deplorable, yielding an “eye glazing” average of 537 Yards in 2015 (# 125), and 529 Yards in 2017 (#127) out of 129 Division 1 schools.
Tulsa demonstrated a modest improvement last season, yet yielded an average of 408 Yards per game which ranked #76 in the land (bottom 50 percentile of 129 Division 1 schools), and while that was a modest improvement compared to 2015 and 2017, nevertheless Tulsa posted just 3 wins and 9 losses while yielding an average of 30 Points per game.
So, in most opening games, coach Dantonio might say by action and deed, “we want to do enough to post a win and get ready for the next game”, but this isn’t any opponent, or any game, or any year. It is less than one year since the Spartans Offense ranked amongst the worst in the land and amongst the worst in the Spartan’s storied football history, so it is imperative that the Spartan Offense exert their will against one of the worst Defenses in the country on Friday night.
Expecting the Spartans to achieve 200 Yards Rushing…200 Yards Passing…and 30 Points vs Tulsa is a measurement that Brad Salem’s “new” Offense must achieve…I think they will…yet anything less will be MAJOR reason for concern, and you can look for my post game comments on Saturday, but I can’t leave without some Michigan commentary.
Michigan’s 15 year Championship hunt continues!
Michigan hasn’t won an outright Big Ten Championship since 2003 and last weekend, on Fox Sports, Urban Meyer was asked “Is this Michigan’s year?
To which Urban Meyer replied succinctly: “Year for what?”
Year for what, indeed. Meyer’s comment didn’t need translation! Michigan has only beaten Ohio State 3 times since 2000, or said another way, since 2000, Ohio State has posted 16 wins and just 3 losses vs Michigan, including the fact Harbaugh is 0-4 vs Urban Meyer. So, just like Urban Meyer, we have to ask, “where’s the threat?”. Clearly, Urban Meyer isn’t drinking the Harbaugh Kool Aid being served by the media through a firehose and neither should anyone else.
The numbers tell the story.
With history as our guide, we are abundantly aware that Jim Harbaugh is 1-9 overall vs ranked opponents, including 1-5 on the road vs ranked opponents, and this year alone, Harbaugh will play 6 ranked opponents, 2 on the road and 4 at home. How ominous is that?
It’s also noteworthy, Michigan will play unranked Army in the 2nd game of the season, and it should be noted Army posted a formidable record of 11-2 in 2018, while one of Army’s losses came at the hands of #4 Oklahoma, 28-21 in OT, yet in that loss, Army rolled up an eye glazing 339 Yards Rushing. And of course Army closed the season by beating down Houston, 70-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl and virtually all of Army’s starters return for 2019. So anyone who overlooks Army and thinks Michigan will post an automatic victory vs the Black Knights of the Hudson, doesn’t know “this” Army team.
At any measure, for all of the hype that Harbaugh would bring NFL credentials and offensive savvy to Michigan football, that promise has been an unmitigated illusion. For the most part Harbaugh’s offensive schemes have been dismal and unremarkable and let’s be honest, on the sideline, Harbaugh looks dazed and out of touch. At any measure, no coach does less with Top 10 recruiting talent.
After an attrition of 13 assistant coaches over the past 4 years, including the loss of two Defensive Coaches to the aforementioned Ohio State Buckeyes last Spring, and then deploying 3 new Assistant Coaches in 2019, Harbaugh looks less like a coach and more like the host of “Wheel of Fortune”.
Nevertheless, some pundits predict Michigan will win the Big Ten yet I suggest those pundits are delusional. This year Michigan will deploy Shea Patterson again as their Quarterback, and while partisan pundits are celebrating Patterson’s skills, it should be noted that Patterson was only the 8th most productive QB in the Big Ten in 2018 (bottom 50 percentile) and after 3 years of football, Patterson has never won a championship of any kind. Moreover, Patterson will be deployed in an Offensive scheme in 2019 that is being stitched together by Josh Gattis an inexperienced coach with just 8 years of coaching experience who is embarking upon his first season as a solo Offensive Coordinator, and by the way, Gattis has never called a single play in college football. That’s not a recipe for success, that’s a formula for heartburn.
Michigan will assuredly beat Middle Tennessee State which finished with a record of 8-6 in 2018, and MTSU isn’t expected to finish any higher than middle of the pack in Conference USA in 2019. So, expect Michigan to run up the score on MTSU, but that’s not a “Badge of Honor”. Here is a tip for Michigan: forego the postgame celebration and get ready for Army, because I will assure you the highly conditioned and impeccably disciplined Cadets of West Point will be more than ready for the Harbaugh Circus!
At the bottom line:
The Spartans opening game vs Tulsa will be a fortuitous opportunity for the revamped Spartan Offense to rediscover its passing efficiency, and the Spartan Rushing Offense should be able to achieve a classic Michigan State ground pounding rhythm. Meanwhile the Spartan Defense in 2019 could very well set the tone to establish itself amongst the great Spartan Defenses of all time, and possibly align themselves with the legendary Spartan Defense of 1965 that held Michigan, Notre Dame and Ohio State to negative Rushing Yardage.
