The late Dennis Green once famously said: “they are who we thought they were” when referring to an NFL opponent, and that idiom applies to Michigan as well, but for different reasons.
In this case, Michigan is who we thought they were…and that means Championship pretenders!
Each year, and without invitation, we are forced to drink Harbaugh “Kool Aid” through a high pressure firehose nozzle turned on by beat writers and analysts eager to anoint Michigan as Big Ten Champions, That exercise is tantamount to waterboarding. Nevertheless each year I push back saying “Michigan is not Championship caliber”, and predictably each year Michigan falls, sometimes sooner than later, but Jim Harbaugh is consistent, he never wins the season.
This season it only took 3 games for the wheels to come off Harbaugh’s Championship cart.
After having a bye week to rest, focus and prepare to play Wisconsin, Michigan’s “Speed in Space” Offense got dragged all around Camp Randall Stadium and lost 35-14. It wasn’t just a loss, it was a humiliating beat down on National TV. Wisconsin methodically built a 35-0 lead before taking their collective feet off the accelerator thereby yielding two late Touchdowns to post a 35-14 victory in a game that was never in question.
Harbaugh’s highly publicized “Speed in Space” Offense posted just 40 Yards Rushing…while Michigan’s vaunted Defense yielded an “eye glazing” 487 Yards to Wisconsin, and yielded a “whopping” 359 Yards Rushing.
Not only was Michigan never in the football game, but their players contemplated “what if” after Michigan Running Back, Ben Mason fumbled near the goal line in the 1st Qtr. Michigan players were implying that if Ben Mason hadn’t fumbled in the 1st Qtr, that Michigan would have won the game? Imagine that? Imagine players commenting in a postgame news conference upon a play that occurred in the 1st Qtr, when after all there was more than 45 minutes of football to play? Shameful…but again, this is a Jim Harbaugh team!
Nevertheless, I guess you could say, by the time Ben Mason fumbled midway through the 1st Qtr, Michigan was already a beaten team.
Now comes Iowa, and if Wisconsin is #1 in the Big Ten West, then Iowa is #1A in the Big Ten West and we already know what kind of beating Wisconsin put on Michigan.
For their part, Iowa will visit Michigan this Saturday and this will be another referendum to gauge the efficacy (or lack thereof) of Harbaugh’s newest gimmick, an Offense which is curiously referred to as “Speed in Space”. But “Speed in Space” seems to be a contradiction in term, because when we check the stats, Michigan should retitle their Offense with a more appropriate reference such as “Lost in Space”.
The woeful stats compiled by Michigan’s “Speed in Space” Offense have gotten coaches fired in the past:
It’s notable that Michigan’s woeful stats were compiled in part at the hands of two non-Power 5 opponents. In fact, it took two Overtimes for Michigan to barely beat Army 24-21 at home, and so Michigan can thank their lucky stars that their current record is 3-1 instead of 2-2.
Nevertheless, the following Offensive stats compiled by Michigan rank in the bottom 30 percentile when measured against 129 Division 1 Schools:
- #94 Rushing Offense (130 YPG)
- #95 Red Zone Scoring (78%)
- #105 Completion Pct (57%)
- #109 Turnover Margin (-1.00)
- #110 Turnovers Lost (10)
- #125 Fumbles Lost (7)
Just wait until Harbaugh’s “Speed in Space”, turnover Machine tries to find “Space” against Iowa which deploys one of the best Defenses in the land.
Iowa’s Scoring Defense is ranked #3, yielding a meager 8.5 Points per game. And in the bigger picture, Iowa’s Total Defense is ranked #5 in the country yielding just 251 Yards per game while Iowa Rushing Defense is ranked #10, yielding just 77 Yards Rushing per game.
Michigan “Speed in Space” Offense is in for another painful afternoon trying to execute their Offense vs Iowa.
Michigan Defense considered Championship caliber, until they play a Champion:
Under Jim Harbaugh’s leadership Michigan has lost to Florida, Florida State, Iowa, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, South Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin.
Of course Harbaugh has incurred multiple losses to Michigan State and Ohio State, and every year we hear that Michigan has a Championship caliber Defense, that is until Michigan plays a Championship caliber Offense, and then the Wheels come off.
And now Harbaugh will try to beat Kirk Ferentz for the first time.
For their part, Iowa’s Offense isn’t dynamic, but they play nearly error free football. Simply stated, Iowa doesn’t beat themselves, and that’s something unknown to Michigan under Harbaugh. Iowa is averaging 464 Yards of Total Offense, and rank within the Top 5 in 3 “key” Offensive stats: #1 Red Zone Offense…#2 Fewest Penalties…#4 Fewest Penalty Yards.
Yet, Michigan is favored? (don’t believe it):
Michigan is currently ranked #19, but in their annual fall from Championship contention, Michigan fell an unprecedented 13 spots after just 3 games, from #7 to #20, yet after Michigan beat beleaguered Rutgers, Michigan climbed back to #19.
On the other hand, Iowa is ranked #13, and even though Iowa is ranked 6 spots higher than Michigan, according to Las Vegas odds makers, Michigan is favored by 3.5 points? But don’t believe the point spread because Las Vegas is simply enticing bettors to bet.
Michigan started as a 7 point favorite on Sunday, then dropped to 4.5 point favorite by Tuesday, and now 3 days before the game, Michigan is just a 3.5 point favorite. I’m not a betting man, but the bettors with big money don’t believe Michigan can beat Iowa, and those big time bettors are forcing the point spread down, and this game is likely to go off line if it continues to drop.
Moreover, Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz knows how to beat Michigan. Kirk Ferentz is 1-0 vs Jim Harbaugh and 4-1 vs Michigan since 2010. So Kirk Ferentz has a winning record vs Michigan’s three most recent coaches including Rich Rod, Brady Hoke and Jim Harbaugh.
And, to tie a bow around this missive, it’s always worthwhile reviewing Harbaugh’s shameful resume:
- 1-9 vs Top10 ranked teams
- 0-7 as Underdog
- 0 Division Titles
- 0 Big Ten Titles
- 0 trips to Football’s Final Four
And after 8 years coaching Power 5 football, 4 years at Stanford and 4 years at Michigan, Harbaugh has never won a championship of any kind, not even a Division title.
At the bottom line, Michigan partisans better enjoy the pregame Homecoming Tailgate replete with wine & cheese, because there won’t be anything to celebrate when the stadium clock ticks to Zero.
We’ll take a close look at the Spartans on Friday:
Friday, we’ll look at the Spartans chances of beating the #4 Buckeyes at the “Shoe” in Columbus, and needless to say, beating the Buckeyes will be a tall task…but it’s doable.
The Buckeyes are highly regarded and rightfully so; after all they are amongst the best teams in the country…Elite, if you will…but the Spartans are underappreciated by being ranked #25, and Spartan Defense is underappreciated as well. Regardless, the Spartans #25 ranking is far too low given the Spartans single 3 point loss to #20 Arizona State.
We’ll take a closer look on Friday.
