Michigan wins the preseason, but never wins the season!

Photo by Alex Mertz on Unsplash

Each year, starry eyed pundits anoint Jim Harbaugh with a preseason Championship, and yet each year Jim Harbaugh falls short!

Let’s take a brief look at Harbaugh’s 4 year tenure at Michigan.

  • 2015: amidst an abundance of hype leading into Harbaugh’s inaugural season, Harbaugh was supposed to bring NFL savvy to Michigan Football but then he lost the first game at Utah, then lost at home to the Spartans due to flawed game management, and then got pummeled at home by Ohio State 42-13, finished #4 Big Ten, and everyone said: wait until next year.
  • 2016: Harbaugh lost 3 of his final 5 games and finished #3 Big Ten.
  • 2017: Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports boldly and unequivocally predicted Jim Harbaugh would win a Championship in his third year, yet Harbaugh lost his final 3 games and finished 8-5 and finished #6 Big Ten. No Championship.
  • 2018: Harbaugh’s Defense was supposed to be the best of his tenure, but he lost the first game of the season to Notre Dame by yielding 14 points in the first 8 minutes thereby sealing a loss, then yielded 62 points to Ohio State in the final game of regular season, and finally yielded 41 points to Florida in the Peach Bowl essentially yielding 103 points in the final two games and at the bottom line, Harbaugh failed to win a Big Ten Championship and failed to get invited to Footballs Final Four..

A consistent theme for Harbaugh is failing to win Big games, which means he has failed to win rivalry games and his teams have clearly faded at the end of each season. Harbaugh is 1-3 in Bowl games and 2-6 vs Michigan State & Ohio State. In addition, Harbaugh is 1-5 on the road vs ranked opponents and 1-9 vs Top 10 teams. 

Moreover, in 8 years coaching Power 5 football (4 years at Stanford and 4 years at Michigan) Harbaugh has yet to win a Championship of any kind, so with respect to the pundits, excuse us if there is a grand measure of skepticism and overriding cynicism that Harbaugh can somehow catch lightning in the bottle in 2019 and win a Big Ten Championship.

The question is why will 2019 be different…because Michigan hasn’t won a Big Ten title since 2004?

Now it’s “speed in space”?:

For all of the hype that Harbaugh would bring NFL credentials and offensive savvy to Michigan football, that promise has been an illusion.

For the most part Harbaugh’s offensive schemes have been unremarkable.

Harbaugh certainly hasn’t recruited and developed a Quarterback, he’s mostly relied on transfers and grad transfers. Jake Ruddock came from Iowa, John O’Korn came from Houston and Shea Patterson came from Ole Miss. Yet in spite of Harbaugh consistently falling short of expectations, Phil Steele a nationally recognized football analyst (amongst others) predicts Michigan will go unbeaten, finish 12-0, win the Big Ten and get invited to Football’s Final Four.

But really?

Clearly the pundits haven’t paid attention to history.

Those same analyst tell us Shea Patterson will lead Michigan to the promised land. They also tells us Josh Gattis will work magic as Michigan’s newest Offensive Coordinator by deploying an offensive scheme that relies upon “speed in space”.

Curiously the analysts fail to point out that Shea Paterson was only the 8th most productive Quarterback in Big Ten games last season (the bottom 50th percentile). Moreover, it would be fair to say that Harbaugh didn’t trust Patterson to stretch the field by throwing vertically last season, because Harbaugh only allocated 40% of his Offense to pass plays, and most of those were thrown underneath. Patterson threw just 238 passes last season and only Wisconsin and Maryland threw less.

Inside the Red Zone, Patterson was unremarkable. He only engineered 25 touchdowns in 44 attempts (57%) and was forced to kick 15 Field Goals, the most FG attempts inside the Red Zone of any team in the Big Ten. So, if Patterson is supposed to lead Michigan to the promised land, then why is Patterson suspect inside the Red Zone?

Meanwhile Josh Gattis is bringing “speed in space” to Michigan’s offense, but when you peel back the onion, Gattis has never called plays as an Offensive Coordinator. Gattis has only been a college football coach since 2011. He spent 1 year as GA at North Carolina, and then he coached Wide Receivers at Western Michigan, Vanderbilt and Penn State from 2011 to 2017.

At the bottom line, Gattis has only spent a single season (ONE YEAR) as an Offensive Coordinator, and in reality Gattis was Co-Offensive Coordinator at Alabama last season, and while partisan pundits will try to tell you that Josh Gattis was a “key” component to Alabama success last season, by all accounts Mike Locksley, who is the newly appointed Head Coach at Maryland called the plays at Alabama, and if Nick Saban didn’t like the call, he overruled Locksley: for his part, Josh Gattis was not in the “play calling” paradigm.

Yet pundits marvel at Gattis preaching “speed in space” as if he created the term, but C’mon? Every Offensive Coordinator worth his salt tries to get his fastest players in the open field, but that is easier said than done when playing against Championship caliber Defenses. Let’s see how Josh Gattis does in his first season calling plays and playing Offensive Chess vs some of the best Defensive minds in the business such as Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State?

Whos’ coaching whom?

Within virtually every Championship program, coaching continuity is prized because continuity equals consistency, and consistency equals efficiency, and efficiency equals success, yet at Michigan the players need a program to keep track of coaching “hires and fires” because organizational continuity is not Jim Harbaugh’s best attribute either.

Harbaugh has changed 13 assistant coaches in less than 5 years including 3 Offensive Coordinators, 2 Defensive Coordinators, 2 Passing Game Coordinators, 2 Running Game Coordinators and 2 Offensive Line coaches. Of course, it’s worth noting, there are just 10 coaches on staff, so Harbaugh has exceeded 100% turnover in less than 5 years. And of course, there are no Championships.

In 2019 alone, Harbaugh will start with 4 new Assistant Coaches, including a new Offensive Coordinator, Passing Game Coordinator, Defensive Line Coach and Defensive Backfield Coach, so excuse me…but Championship teams aren’t built upon wholesale coaching turnover.

And that brings us to Michigan’s vaunted Defense

Michigan’s vaunted Defense never seals the deal:

Prognosticators remind us that Michigan will lose 7 starters from their vaunted Defense that ranked #2 in 2018, including Devein Bush, Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich, top NFL draft picks all, yet analyst tell us Michigan’s Defense will be just fine?

Yet if Michigan’s vaunted Defense loaded with NFL talent couldn’t seal a Championship in 2018, then why should we expect #2’s & #3’s on the Depth Chart to seal the deal?

Michigan’s Defense cratered against Notre Dame last season, yielding a Touchdown in the first minute and 25 seconds, yielded 14 points in the first 8 minutes, and the game was essentially lost before the end of the 1st Qtr. Then Michigan’s vaunted Defense yielded an ”eye glazing” 62 points to Ohio State and 41 points to Florida (103 points total) in the final two games thereby closing the season with two consecutive beatdowns.

Yet looking closer, Michigan’s Defense yielded 38 points in the 2nd Half alone to Ohio State, and then yielded 28 points in the 2nd Half to Florida, that means Michigan’s vaunted Defense yielded an “eye glazing” 66 points in the 2nd Half of their final two games: 66 Points! That’s not a Championship caliber Defense.

It’s also noteworthy, in Big Ten competition, Michigan ranked dead last in Red Zone Defense, allowing opposing Offenses to score on 18 of 19 (95%) opportunities inside their 20 Yard Line.

So, if Michigan’s Defense was unable to pave the way to a Championship last season with all the talent on their roster, it’s a fair assumption that Michigan’s Defense is incapable of leading Michigan to a Big Ten Championship this season.

At the bottom line:

Michigan will start this season with 4 new assistant coaches, a new Offensive Coordinator who has never called Offensive plays in Power 5 football, a “front runner” Defense that fades in the heat of battle, and a Quarterback who has proven to be erratic trying to score in the Red Zone…and that’s the team analyst are predicting will win a Big Ten Championship?

Let’s look at the numbers again: Harbaugh is 1-3 in Bowl games and 2-6 vs Michigan State & Ohio State. In addition, Harbaugh is 1-5 on the road vs ranked opponents and 1-9 vs Top 10 teams.

By every measure, Jim Harbaugh is at this ceiling!

So, at what point do pundits and so called analysts come to the realization that Michigan’s experiment of spending $49 Million and making Jim Harbaugh one of the Top 5 highest paid coaches in the land, essentially attempting to “buy a championship” was (and is) a failed experiment? In the last 4 years alone, Michigan Football has recruited amongst the highest rated recruits in the country, and produced as many NFL players as any collegiate team in the country and yet Jim Harbaugh has “nothing” to show for it, not even a Division title.

By comparison, Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst was hired in 2015, the same as Jim Harbaugh, yet Paul Chryst has a better overall record, better Big Ten record including two Big Ten West titles, 4 victories and no losses in Bowl games, and yet he is paid half of Jim Harbaugh.

If Michigan hadn’t been intoxicated with the “Michigan Man” myth, they could have gotten the same results (or better) for half the price.

So, instead of a Big Ten title and an invitation to Football’s Final Four in 2019, Michigan will hold on for dear life against every Big Ten team except Illinois, Rutgers and Maryland, and when history is written about the 2019 season, Mark Dantonio will post yet another victory in Ann Arbor vs Jim Harbaugh…and it will be the Spartans, Penn State and Ohio State who compete for the Big Ten East, not Michigan!

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1 thought on “Michigan wins the preseason, but never wins the season!

  1. Right on, Dayne!

    I’ve always thought that Jim was overrated, brought in to placate the big donors and the Walmart Wolverine fan base. He has consistently under-delivered, especially for the money he’s being paid.

    Thank you for your always insightful analysis!

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