Michigan State Spartans have become the darlings of the college football world:

Mel Tucker

Last Saturday, in stunning fashion, 7-0 Michigan State rang the bell and beat 7-0 Michigan 37-33 at Spartan Stadium, and now the Spartans are 8-0 and ranked #6 in the Coaches Poll, #5 in the AP Poll, and ranked a remarkable #3 in the College Football Playoff Poll.

Who would have thought?

In fact, in terms of the College Football Playoff rankings, the Spartans are ranked ahead of “Blue Bloods” such as #5 Ohio State; #7 Michigan; #8 Oklahoma; and #10 Notre Dame. In addition, the Spartans are also ranked ahead of “new bloods” including #6 Cincinnati and #9 Wake Forest.

Now, as we commence November, the month when champions earn their stripes, the Spartans are 8-0 and every single pundit and Sports Talk Radio host in the land is talking about the Spartans.

Of course, the fact the Spartan Offense has evolved from one of the most dysfunctional in the land in 2020, to one of the most dynamic in 2021 is totally amazing.

In fact, the transition from amongst the worst to one of the best defies the laws of Organizational architecture whereby organizational continuity (roster stability) begets consistency, and consistency begets success.

Let’s remember, the Spartans lost an unprecedented 27 players via the Transfer Portal after last season, then added 20 virtually unknown players via the same Transfer Portal (players known only through game film and Youtube) and in addition, most of those players didn’t even step onto the Michigan State campus until early Spring.

Yet in spite of unprecedented roster turnover, the Spartans have become a cohesive team and game by game they have demonstrated incredible execution and team chemistry.

Like most championship teams, the Spartans are discovering unscripted ways to win, and that’s the mark of a champion. Last Saturday’s 4th Qtr point explosion is a “key” example. The Spartans outscored Michigan 15-3 in the 4th Qtr, which more than compensated for the 10-0 deficit they faced at the end of the 1st Qtr.

Moreover, in the final 19 minutes, the Spartans outscored Michigan 23-3, and it’s notable the Spartans put together 3 extraordinary scoring drives in the final 19 minutes, and here is an overview:

  • 3:58, 3rd Qtr: 8 plays…75 Yards, including a 1 Yard TD by Kenneth Walker III, followed by an athletic pass reception by Tre Mosley for a two point conversion.
  • 12:29, 4th Qtr: 9 plays…86 Yards including a 58 Yard TD run by Kenneth Walker III, followed by an aerobatic pass reception by Jayden Reed for another two point conversion.
  • 5:08, 4th Qtr: 6 plays…41 Yards including a 23 Yard TD run by Kenneth Walker III, followed by a PAT

For the day, Walker rushed for 197 Yards on 23 attempts for an average of 8.57 Yards per attempt including 5 Touchdowns, and Walker never got stopped for a loss!

 

Kenneth Walker III is a bona fide Heisman candidate:

After just 8 games and with 4 games remaining, Kenneth Walker III has rushed for nearly 1200 Yards at nearly 7 Yards per attempt, or nearly 150 Yards per game.

And with 4 regular season games remaining, Walker is well on his way to finishing the season as the leading rusher amongst Power 5 running backs!

 

Spartans take down Michigan:

I wrote prior to the Michigan game that if the Spartans could hold Michigan to less than 200 Yards Rushing, then the odds swung heavily in favor of the Spartans.

After all, Michigan was a ground pounding machine prior to the matchup, averaging more than 250 Yards Rushing per game. So seemingly, if the Spartan could slow down Michigan’s Rushing Offense and thereby force Michigan to throw “off schedule” then it would portend good things for the Spartans.

This is what I wrote on Oct 28:

“…if the Spartan Rushing Defense can hold Michigan to 200 Yards Rushing or less (which is a viable possibility) and if Michigan has to rely upon their Passing Offense to save the day, then the odds swing heavily in favor of the Spartans”.

Of course the Spartans held Michigan to just 146 Yards Rushing, which was 100 yards or 20% below their Rushing average, so the Spartan Rushing Defense exceeded expectations, but who would have thought the Spartans would yield 406 Yards Passing to Michigan and still win?

Let’s remember, prior to the game, Michigan’s Pass Offense was averaging a dismal 190 Yards Passing per game and ranked #104 in the land when measured against 130 D-1 Schools.

So Michigan was not considered an ominous Passing threat, and so it seemed reasonable to contemplate that if the Spartans could slow down Michigan’s Rushing Offense and force Michigan to throw off schedule, then the odds would swing heavily in favor of the Spartans.

And yet Michigan’s normally “unremarkable” Pass Offense, scorched the Spartans Pass Defense for 406 Yards, including a 93 Yard Passing Touchdown to Andrel Anthony just 4 minutes after the opening kickoff. Think about that? The Spartans yielded 406 Yards Passing to Michigan which is more than double Michigan’s average per game!

Now, after 8 games, and after yielding 388 Yards Passing to Miami…488 Yards Passing to Western Kentucky…as well as yielding 406 Yards Passing to Michigan, the Spartans Pass Defense is now ranked a woeful #127 in the land, yielding a “mind numbing” average of 300 Yards Passing per game and only 3 schools in the country rank worse, but moreover the Spartans Pass Defense is “the worst” amongst Power 5 schools.

What does all of that mean?

In brief, the Spartans Pass Defense is in bad company because they are just one of four D-1 schools yielding more than 300 Yards Passing per game, and it should be no surprise the other schools all have losing records.

It also means the Spartans have dodged the bullet so far.

By all measures, yielding an average of 300 Yards Passing per game is a dangerous game to play, and the Spartans need to find some “fixes” prior to their last 4 games vs Purdue, Maryland, Ohio State and Penn State. Those schools will test every aspect of Harlon Barnett’s Passing Defense, and that means Harlon Barnett needs to do some late night homework to prepare for the last 4 games!

 

At the bottom line…a reality check awaits at Purdue:

After 8 games, Purdue has compiled a record of 5-3 overall and 3-2 Big Ten, with signature victories at home vs Oregon State, as well as impressive road victories at Iowa and at Nebraska.

And for all of Purdue’s foibles and inconsistencies, nevertheless their Pass Offense is ranked #16 in the land, averaging more than 300 Yards per game and the Boilermakers convert more than 40% of their 3rd Down opportunities. Of course, we know how much trouble the Spartan Pass Defense had with Miami, Western Kentucky and most notably got hammered by Michigan’s less than dynamic Passing attack.

And now the Spartans face Purdue which has a bona fide, championship caliber Passing Offense.

Purdue gets respect for their Defense as well.

Purdue’s Rushing Defense is functional and yields a tick less than 140 Yards per game, while overall Purdue yields a total of just 313 Yards per game (ranked #17 in the land).

Purdue is also stingy on the scoreboard, yielding just 17 Points per game (ranked #10 in the land).

So Purdue should not be considered a “walk in the park” rather Purdue is a formidable opponent.

Let’s remember, Purdue didn’t earn the name “Spoilermakers” without good reason…including the fact Purdue has “spoiled” many an afternoon for the Spartans over the years.

On paper the Spartans are favored to win by about 3 points, but CAUTION is the operative word.

If the Spartans can avoid a letdown and hang a “W” at West Lafayette, they will achieve a 9-0 record, and you have to go back decades to find a better start.

We’ll see…

Thank you for reading.

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