The Spartans will host #6 Penn State this Saturday, and Penn State is favored by 6 points, but don’t believe it: we have seen this movie before.
In fact just last season, Michigan State with a record of 3-2 was a decided Underdog when they visited #8 Penn State. For their part, Penn State had a record of 4-1 and while the Spartans trailed most of the game, nevertheless the Spartans scored a Touchdown with just 19 seconds remaining to post a victory.
It was classic Mark Dantonio, and classic James Franklin.
Mark Dantonio found a way to win, and James Franklin found a way to lose a pivotal game.
It’s notable, Mark Dantonio has won 4 of 5 meetings against James Franklin, or said another way, since becoming a Head Coach at Penn State in 2014, James Franklin has only beaten Mark Dantonio once and that was during the Spartans dreaded 2016 season.
From James Franklin’s point of view, he has lost to Mark Dantonio 4 times, including two games played at Penn State in 2014 & 2018, and two games played at Spartan Stadium in 2015 & 2017 respectively.
So, Mark Dantonio clearly has James Franklin’s number, and let’s be honest, James Franklin and Jim Harbaugh may be the two worst game managers in the Big Ten, neither seeming to have a professional grasp on situational schematics or clock management and those are problematic traits when trying to win close games in the Big Ten and Mark Dantonio has found a way to exploit both.
Let’s revisit the 2018 game:
The Spartans were decided Underdogs at #8 Penn State last season.
Prior to the game, the Spartan had a record of 3-2 including victories vs Utah State, Indiana and Central Michigan, yet suffered painful losses to Arizona State 13-16; and Northwestern 19-29. On the other hand, #8 Penn State had a record of 4-1 including a narrow 26-27 loss to Ohio State.
Penn State got off to a fast start and had a 14-7 lead at Halftime.
The Spartans tied the score 14-14 at the 6:10 mark of the 3rd Qtr and Penn State finally managed to kick a 20 Yard Field Goal at 9:21 of the 4th Qtr to take a 17-14 lead. Given the meager number of points scored into the 4th Qtr, a 3 point lead seemed nearly insurmountable.
After Penn State converted a 4th Qtr Field Goal to take a 17-14 lead, each team had two scoreless possessions, and then the Spartans received a Punt at their 24 Yard Line with only 1 min & 19 seconds remaining on the clock. And here is how it played out:
Brian Lewerke pass to Connor Heyward for 11 Yards
Brian Lewerke pass to Felton Davis…incomplete
Brian Lewerke pass to Laress Nelson for 21 Yards
Brian Lewerke pass to Felton Davis…incomplete
Brian Lewerke pass to Laress Nelson for 11 Yards
Brian Lewerke pass to Felton Davis…incomplete
Brian Lewerke pass to Connor Heyward for 8 Yards
Brian Lewerke pass to Felton Davis for 25 Yards…Touchdown!
The Spartans knew that Felton Davis had favorable matchups and it’s noteworthy that Lewerke targeted Felton Davis on 3 unsuccessful attempts on their final drive. Yet on the final play of the final drive, Lewerke finally connected with Davis in a matchup they knew was winnable. Davis pulled up short to gather Lewerke’s pass, and after gaining possession, Davis simply sprinted past the Defensive Back and into the End Zone for a Touchdown. The PAT was good and the Spartans took a commanding 21-17 lead with just 19 seconds remaining.
At the bottom line, Mark Dantonio and the Spartans put Penn State on their heels and marched 76 Yards in 8 plays to score a Touchdown with just 19 seconds remaining. James Franklin was dazed and confused.
And now we come to 2019 with a variation on the same theme whereby #6 Penn State is favored, and yet history is on the side of Mark Dantonio and the Spartans.
Spartans need not fear Penn State:
Penn State has a record of 7-0 yet they have padded their scores and stats by beating opponents such as Idaho, Buffalo, Maryland and Purdue: opponents with a cumulative record of 11-18.
On the other hand, Penn State’s notable victories have come against Iowa, Michigan and Pitt, yet Penn State was taken to the wire before eking out victories vs all three: Iowa 17-12; Michigan 28-21; and Pitt 17-10 but in the process, Penn State yielded an average of 311 Yards Passing and nearly 400 Yards of Total Offense, and that tells us Penn State’s Defense is exceedingly vulnerable.
And while Penn State has a record of 7-0, it’s hard to conceive that Penn State is Top 10 caliber team and ranked #6, but regardless, Mark Dantonio has James Franklin’s number.
A “Bye Week” to regroup:
It’s frequently said after an emotional game, “win or lose”, a team needs a week to regroup.
In the case of the Spartans, they got a much needed “Bye Week” to regroup after “back to back” emotional losses on the road at Ohio State and Wisconsin respectively. And part of regrouping is adjusting goals from title contender to spoiler. These young players had envisioned a Big Ten title and their dreams were dashed. Needless to say, it takes time to emotionally recover, and so the Spartans got a much needed “Bye Week” to regroup.
And now, after playing Ohio State and Wisconsin on the road, the most daunting part of the Spartans schedule is “in the rear view mirror”.
So it may seem like long odds, but the Spartans play 3 of their final 5 games at home and in addition, they will enjoy yet another “Bye Week” after Penn State, so with an abundance of rest, game prep, and with good luck, good fortune as well as regaining health from problematic injuries along their Offensive Line, a double digit season is still a possibility.
Meanwhile Penn State has played 3 emotionally draining games against Iowa, Michigan and Pitt, with 2 of those victories coming within the friendly confines of Beaver Stadium.
So Penn State may have used all the “emotional gas in their tank” and now they go on the road to play the Spartans who have “nothing to lose”, while Penn State will arguably be looking ahead to games on the road at unbeaten Minnesota as well as unbeaten Ohio State. By all measures, Penn State is exceedingly vulnerable and the Spartans are prepared to take advantage!
More importantly, Mark Dantonio always finds a way to beat James Franklin in the game of Chess.
