The Spartan Spring Game is Saturday, April 15, and it marks the official start of the 2023 season but more importantly it marks a season of reckoning for Mel Tucker.
I want to be respectful, but after 3 years at Michigan State, Mel Tucker hasn’t exactly distinguished himself as a championship caliber head football coach.
In fact, Mel Tucker’s cumulative Big Ten record is just 12 wins offset by 13 losses, or an uninspiring 48% W/L record.
That puts Mel Tucker in dubious company along with Muddy Waters, Bobby Williams, and John L Smith as Spartan coaches who failed to distinguish themselves in Big Ten competition, and immediately below is the W/L percentage for each of those coaches in Big Ten competition after their first 3 seasons:
- Muddy Waters (31%)
- Bobby Williams (42%)
- John L. Smith (46%)
- Mel Tucker (48%)
After 3 years, each coach failed to achieve a 50% W/L record in Big Ten competition and that’s a pretty low bar!
Yet, let’s remember, upon arriving at Michigan State, Mel Tucker spoke boldly about “changing the culture” which was curious because he made it sound like he inherited some type of renegade program with problems both on and off the field and therefore he had to undertake some type of heroic effort to “change the culture”.
But that was simply not true!
Not only did Mel Tucker not inherit a renegade program, rather he inherited a fundamentally solid program that achieved 3 Top 10 finishes in 2013, 2014 and 2015, and in the 3 seasons immediately preceding Mel Tucker taking the reins (2017, 2018 and 2019), Dantonio posted a 16-11 Big Ten record (59%) and won 2 Bowl games.
Even though Mel Tucker declared to “change the culture” nevertheless it didn’t go according to plan because he commenced his first season with 1 win and 3 losses, including horrendous double digit losses to Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana whereby the Spartans were outscored 111-34 or a 77-point losing differential.
Yet, after that 1-3 start, Mel Tucker made another bold declaration by hurling this salvo toward his players: “This is compete to play, compete to stay”.
We assumed the dismal start was a seminal moment of frustration for Mel Tucker and therefore he was prepared to implement a dynamic plan to motivate his players and correct course.
Of course, we were told Mel Tucker had all the tools. We were told he was a stellar evaluator of talent, a stellar recruiter, a gifted developer of talent in the weight room and on the field, a gifted play caller and a strategic game manager, so it made sense for fans to expect a dynamic turnaround.
Yet, after making his bold statement about “…compete to play…compete to stay”, Mel Tucker concluded the season with just one victory and 2 losses while getting outscored 111-65.
In total, Mel Tucker and the Spartans were outscored 222 to 99 in 2020, a 123 point deficit and not exactly a celebratory start to his Michigan State career.
Of course, 2020 was just a one-year sample but the bigger sample is even more problematic. Over the past 3 seasons in Big Ten competition, Mel Tucker’s teams have averaged a meager 22 points while yielding 31 points, or a negative 9-point differential.
Nevertheless, a lot of folks believe Mel Tucker needs time, but how much time?
Let’s remember after 3 years, Mel Tucker only has one winning season and it would be wrong if we didn’t include Mel Tucker’s losing campaign at Colorado in 2019 whereby he posted a 3-6 losing record in PAC 12 competition.
So, all in, Mel Tucker’s 4-year conference record (PAC 12 and Big Ten) is a miserable 15-19 (44%) with just one winning season and one bowl victory.
And from a statistical perspective, since 2019 Mel Tucker’s teams have only averaged 24 points per game in conference competition, while yielding 30 points per game and you don’t have to be a football analyst to conclude that’s a losing proposition.
At the bottom line: can Mel Tucker compete and win in the Big Ten?
Let’s remember, after 3 years at Michigan State, Mel Tucker has compiled an uninspiring 12-13 Big Ten record…certainly unbecoming for a Head Football Coach who is earning more than $9 Mn per year.
So, we have to ask the question: can Mel Tucker consistently compete and win against Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State?
After all, if the Spartans are unable to win the Big Ten East, then winning a Big Ten and National Title is completely out of the question, yet how long should fans wait?
I don’t know what type of management conversations Alan Haller is having with Mel Tucker, but benchmarks and guidelines need to be talking points and and let’s hope a Big Ten title is a focal point of their conversations.
And if Alan Haller is drawing a road map to a Big Ten East Title then he needs to establish “minimum” benchmarks in Big Ten competition over the next 5 years, and in my view, here are the “year by year” incremental steps on the road map:
- 5-4
- 6-3
- 7-2
- 8-1
- 9-0
If Mel Tucker achieved those benchmarks it would demonstrate dramatic improvement compared to the dismal 48% W/L record over his first 3 years.
Even a 7-2 record is unlikely to win a Big Ten East title, especially given that over the past 5 years the Big Ten East Champion has never lost more than 1 game in Big Ten competition and immediately below are the last 5 Big East Champions and their respective Big Ten records:
- 2022, Michigan…9-0
- 2021, Michigan…8-1
- 2020, Ohio State…5-0 (COVID year)
- 2019, Ohio State…9-0
- 2018, Ohio State…8-1
Like most management goals, it frequently looks easy on paper, but achieving those goals is another matter.
In fact, I would argue the Spartans will be extraordinarily hard pressed to even post a 5-4 record this season given only Indiana and Rutgers amongst the Spartans 9 Big Ten opponents in 2023 posted worse Big Ten records than the Spartans last year.
Let’s remember, Rutgers, which finished dead last in Big Ten East last season with a 1-8 record, rang the bell for 224 Yards Rushing last season vs the Spartans at more than 5 Yards per attempt and narrowly lost at Spartan Stadium 27-21.
Meanwhile Indiana posted a dismal 2-7 Big Ten record last year yet rang the bell for a robust 257 Yards Rushing against the Spartans at nearly 6 Yards per attempt and thereby humiliated the Spartans in Spartan Stadium 39-31 in double OT last season.
In those two November games at Spartan Stadium, the Spartans porous Defense yielded nearly 500 Yards Rushing to two of the worst Offensive teams in the Big Ten.
Moreover, it’s unclear how the Spartans intend to fix their patchwork, porous Defense that yielded an average of nearly 420 Yards per game in Big Ten competition last season.
In summary, it’s hard to find bright spots.
Offensively, amongst Big Ten East teams only Indiana and Rutgers finished worse than the Spartans last season, while Defensively only Indiana was worse than the Spartans last season.
And it isn’t exactly like the Spartans bolstered their roster with a bounty of Championship caliber talent.
In fact, the Spartans are so thin on the Depth Chart that the Spring Game won’t be a Spring Game at all, rather it will be a Spring Practice because there simply isn’t enough Depth to organize two competitive teams.
So, will Mel Tucker meet or exceed the “benchmarks” on the road to a Big Ten Championship that I prescribed above, starting with a 5-4 record this season?
We will watch and see what unfolds…and hopefully there will be a profound turnaround, because under the guidance of Mel Tucker Spartan Football has gone from exhilarating to uninspiring and Spartan fans deserve better!
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Thank you for reading.
