Spartans have a chance to restore a measure of respect

As we enter rivalry week of the Michigan vs Michigan State game, the Spartans are in a two-way tie for 5th place in Big Ten East with a 1-3 Big Ten record.

Let’s remember, that means 5th place in a 7-team division so the Spartans are currently tied with Rutgers for 5th place B1G East while only Indiana is worse with a 1-4 record.

It also means the Spartans are in a 5-way tie for 9th place in the composite Big Ten standings with Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers all of which have 1-3 Big Ten records while Indiana ranks last amongst 14 teams.

Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum Michigan has a 7-0 record overall and 4-0 Big Ten, which means they are tied with Ohio State for #1 Big Ten East and #1 Big Ten overall.

Let’s take a look at some hard facts heading into the game with Michigan!

 

Just 5 games remain:

The Spartans have 5 Big Ten games remaining and with good luck and good fortune, the Spartans could restore a measure of dignity by posting a winning record.

Yet, this is Big Ten (Big Boy) Football and that means everything is earned between the white lines.

The reality is, if the Spartans hope to post a winning record, they must win 4 of 5 remaining games and based upon everything we have seen so far, prospects of posting a winning record are virtually non existent.

Regardless, the Spartans could restore some dignity if they beat #4 Michigan but the direction of those two programs couldn’t be any more different.

Michigan’s compass is pointed due north with an unblemished 7-0 record (4-0 Big Ten) and ranked #4 in the land, while the Spartans overall record is 3-4 (1-3 Big Ten) ranked # 74 in the land and its compass heading is unknown.

According to latest odds, Michigan is an incredible 22.5-point favorite and to be candid, that’s a conservative point spread because on paper, the statistics tell us the Spartans don’t have a chance.

 

Striking difference in fundamentals:

For all of Jim Harbaugh’s quirks and idiosyncrasies, Michigan is an incredibly well coached football team and operating at high efficiency.

When measured against 130 D-1/FBS Schools, Michigan ranks Top 10 in “key” Offensive categories such as: Scoring Offense #6…Rush Offense #8…and Time of Possession #8.

Michigan also ranks Top 5 in “key” Defensive categories such as Scoring Defense #3…Rush Defense #5…and Total Defense #5.

By striking contrast, the Spartans rank 100 or worse (bottom 25th percentile when measured against 130 D-1/FBS Schools) in Rush Offense #116…Total Offense #104…Red Zone Offense #102…3rd Down Defense #105…Total Defense # 104…Pass Defense #111…and Time of Possession #107.

According to the preceding statistical measurements, to say Spartan Football is lacking discipline, fundamentals and proper coaching would be an grand Understatement.

 

Common opponent and comparative stats:

Both Michigan and Michigan State played Maryland as a common opponent and if we look at comparative stats, we get a salient sense of strengths and weaknesses.

It’s worth noting, Maryland has compiled a respectable record of 6-2 overall and 3-2 Big Ten. Of course, Michigan beat Maryland 34-27 while the Spartans lost to Maryland 13-27.

In its 13-point victory, Michigan was extremely balanced, posting 220 yards passing, and 243 yards rushing at more than 6 yards per attempt In total, Michigan compiled 463 Yards of Total Offense while yielding just 397 Yards..

On the other hand, in the Spartans 14-point loss at Maryland, the Spartans compiled a meager 321 Yards of Total Offense while yielding 489 Yards, or a differential of minus 168 Yards (-168).

Of course, it starts up front and given the Spartans were unable to control the Line of Scrimmage, the Spartans eked out just 100 Yards net rushing.

And when we look at stats against Big Ten competition, Michigan is averaging 33 points per game while yielding 17 points or a margin of 16 points (+16).

Meanwhile, when measured against Big Ten competition, the Spartans are averaging a paltry 19 points per game but yielding 35 points, or a double-digit deficit of minus 16 points (-16)…and by all definitions, that defines losing.

 

Final tune up:

Of course, October 22 was a bye week for both Michigan and Michigan State, yet their games preceding the bye are instructive.

Michigan hosted #13 Penn State while the Spartans hosted unranked Wisconsin.

Michigan and Penn State were both unbeaten and ranked in Top 10 when they played on Oct 15, yet, at the end of the day, Michigan pounded Penn State into submission 41-17.

Michigan compiled more than 550 Yards of Total Offense, including 421 Yards of Rushing Offense at nearly 8.0 Yards per attempt, and in that game, Michigan proved to a national audience they belong in the National Championship conversation.

Meanwhile, the Spartans hosted Wisconsin, but Wisconsin was mired in confusion given the fact they fired their head coach the first week of October after a 34-10 beat down to Illinois thereby falling to a 2-3 record.

Consequently Wisconsin travelled to Michigan State led by an interim head coach.

And while the Spartans managed to post a 34-28 double OT victory against a discombobulated team from Wisconsin, the Spartans were hardly efficient and there was nothing heroic about their victory: the Spartans eked out a mere 99 Yards Rushing while committing 9 penalties for minus 103 yards (-103).

Think about that? The Spartans were penalized 103 Yards, yet only gained 99 Yards Rushing, in other words the Spartans were assessed more penalty yards than yards gained rushing the football. A shocking statistic!

The scoreboard told us the Spartans posted a victory, but the “eye test” told us the Spartans are a struggling team in search of an identity, more discipline and better coaching.

 

At the bottom line (where are the fixes, and where is the hope?)

If the Spartans win at Ann Arbor, then they will restore a measure of dignity to the Football program, and we might also be able to look at Mel Tucker in a favorable light.

But if the Spartans lose, or worse, if the Spartans get hammered in Ann Arbor, and keep in mind, the odds makers predict a 23-point loss (minimum), then we must look at Mel Tucker in the light of reality as perhaps another Spartan coach who lacks Championship credentials.

Some folks think I am harsh or unfair to Mel Tucker but let me make this clear, my allegiance is to Michigan State University, which means I owe no allegiance to the Head Coach du jour unless that coach brings honor to the university.

For what it’s worth, everyone extended a warm welcome to Frank “Muddy” Waters and gave him an opportunity to prove himself. Similar respect was extended to Bobby Williams and John L. Smith as well, until they proved on the football field they didn’t have championship credentials.

Of course, the same warm welcome has been extended to Mel Tucker, yet so far he has put forth a sketchy resume.

After all, when we see an inconsistent football team underscored by deplorable statistical rankings, in other words rankings amongst the worst of 130 D-1/FBS schools (100 or worse) and underscored by undisciplined penalties, including “Unsportsmanlike Conduct” …Unnecessary Roughness…Targeting…and/or bone headed “false starts and illegal motion”…and let’s not forget bone headed coaching decisions compounded by shockingly bad clock mismanagement…then it’s a fair assumption the coaching staff lacks the football wherewithal to win with consistency…and that means in my assessment, lack the wherewithal to represent Michigan State University with honor.

Let’s be honest, if the Spartans lose at #4 Michigan, followed by road losses at #17 Illinois, and #13 Penn State, then the Spartans will post another losing season (5-7 best or 3-9 worst).

In that case, it would be the 2nd losing season in Mel Tucker’s brief 3-year tenure and his 3rd losing campaign in 4 years as a head coach.

That narrative easily lends itself to the likelihood that Mel Tucker fortuitously “caught lightning in a bottle” last season.

And let’s make this point, if Mel Tucker is awaiting the “second coming” of Kenneth Walker III (KWIII) to post the next winning season, then it will be a long, long wait for Mel Tucker and for Spartan fans everywhere.

There are those who say you can throw records and stats out the window in a rivalry game, but that would be a huge mistake.

Historically, the team that rushes for most yardage wins this game, and this season Michigan is averaging a robust 250 Yards Rushing per game against Big Ten opponents while the Spartans are averaging just 61 Yards, or a differential of 189 yards.

Think about that?

Michigan is averaging 189 Yards more per game rushing the football than the Spartans and that statistical discrepancy belongs to Mel Tucker, Jay Johnson (O-Coordinator) and Chris Kapilovic (O-Line Coach and Running Game Coordinator), so throw out the Rushing stats are your own risk.

But let’s ask this questions: do you have confidence this coaching staff can correct course and restore honor to Michigan State Football?

After all, the Spartans must win 4 of 5 remaining games to post a winning record, and barring a miracle, that won’t happen. That means it will be Mel Tucker’s 2nd losing campaign in 3 years at Michigan State, or Mel Tucker’s 3rd losing season in 4 years as a head coach, how long are fans expected to wait for a championship contender?

There is popular belief that everything will correct course when Mel Tucker gets “his recruits” but how many recruits do you think will stay committed to Mel Tucker if Spartan Football posts its second losing season in 3 years?

And how willing are you to give Mel Tucker more time if he gets pounded into submission at Michigan in front of a prime time audience?

I’m just asking…

Thank you for reading, and I always welcome your comments and opinions.

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