Spartans have respect, but they don’t fear the Buckeyes

The odds makers have installed the Buckeyes as 20 point favorites, but that won’t strike fear in the heart of Mark Dantonio or the Spartan players.

Let’s start with a few facts: Ohio State Quarterback, Justin Fields is a phenom, and the Buckeyes Offense is explosive averaging 535 Yards of Total Offense including 280 Yards Rushing, complemented by 52 Points per game.

Statistically, the Buckeyes Offense and Defense are ranked within the Top 10 when measured against 129 Division 1 Schools, meanwhile their Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense rank even higher, ranked #3 and #4 respectively.

All of that seems daunting right? But do the Spartans measure up? Yes, they do!

For their part, the Spartans Defense is amongst the best in the land and rank #7 overall yielding just 228 Yards per game, while the Spartans Rushing Defense ranks an impressive #4, yielding a meager 55 Yards per game. And we all know that Rushing Defense is a critical stat because it measures a team’s ability to control the Line of Scrimmage.

On the other hand, the Spartans Offense was revamped during the offseason, and when we check the stats, interestingly Brian Lewerke’s yardage production is outpacing Justin Fields 269 to 254 yards per game, and in terms of Yardage per reception, Lewerke is averaging 12.7 Yards per completion, just a bit short of Fields who is averaging 13.4 Yards per completion.

Yet when we eliminate stats compiled vs lower tier nonconference opponents, such as Florida Atlantic and Miami Ohio in the case of Ohio State, or Tulsa and Western Michigan in case of the Spartans, and thereby focus upon stats produced versus Big Ten competition, then Lewerke is outpacing Fields. Take a look:

  • Total Passing yardage: Lewerke 528 Yards…Fields 426 Yards
  • Passing Yards per game: Lewerke 264 Yards…Fields 213 Yards
  • Yards per completion: Lewerke 14.7 Yards per completion…Fields 13.3 Yards per completion
  • Passing Touchdowns per game: Lewerke, 3 TD’s per game…Fields, 3 TD’s per game
  • Interceptions: Lewerke, Zero…Fields, Zero

Of course, in Big Ten competition, the Spartans have played and beaten Northwestern and Indiana, while Ohio State has played and beaten Indiana and Nebraska. So, both teams have played and beaten one common opponent from the Big Ten East, which is Indiana, and both teams have played and beaten an opponent from the Big Ten West: the Spartans having played Northwestern, while Ohio State has played Nebraska.

When we measure the respective Defenses against Big Ten teams which have played at least 2 Big Ten games, you would have to split hairs to find a meaningful statistical advantage. Let’s take a look:

  • Rush Defense: Spartans rank #2 and yield an average of 104 Yards per game…Buckeyes rank #3 and yield an average of 113 Yards per game.
  • Total Defense: Buckeyes rank #2 and yield an average of 244 Yards per game…Spartans rank #4 and yield an average of 310 Yards per game
  • Scoring Defense: Buckeyes rank #1 and yield an average of 8.5 Points per game…Spartans rank #4 and yield an average of 20.5 Points per game

Statistically, both Defenses are amongst the best in the Big Ten.

Of course, the Buckeyes have demolished two Big Ten opponents so they have yet to be tested in close games, yet the Spartans have been tested in “Crunch” time in 3 tight games, and that is an advantage in its own regard.

It is generally agreed that teams learn the most, and improve the most as a result of playing in tight games as opposed to cruising through Blowouts. In that context, the Spartans suffered a painful 10-7, 3 point loss to #20 Arizona State, then played a tight first half against Northwestern before prevailing 31-14, and of course last week the Spartans played an extremely tight game vs Indiana that went down to the final two minutes before the Spartans posted a 40-31 victory.

So, have the Spartans improved enough to beat the Buckeyes in the Shoe? And, how will the Buckeyes respond in a crunch time?

Spartan Coaching continuity is an advantage:

I’m going to make an assumption the game between the Spartans and Buckeyes will be close, and in close games, coaching continuity has an advantage against a first year coaching staff.

For what it’s worth, the Spartan Coaching staff have an average tenure on Mark Dantonio’s staff exceeding 8 years, including 4 coaches who have been with Mark Dantonio since his coaching days at Cincinnati, more than a decade ago. So the Spartans decision making metrics are well defined and well rehearsed as it relates to execution in “Crunch” time: not perfect of course, but consistent and efficient. Everyone remembers game winning execution in plays called “Rocket”, “Mousetrap” and “Little Giants”, so coaching familiarity and coaching continuity are meaningful assets.

In turn, I think everyone would agree the Ohio State coaching staff have great credentials and resumes, yet it’s mostly an all new staff with limited familiarity. In fact, there are 5 first year coaches on a staff of 10, so one half of the Buckeye assistant coaches are in their first year. And of course the Buckeyes Head Coach is in his first year as well as it relates to leading, directing, organizing and guiding a team in critical “Crunch time”.

Of course, all of the Buckeye assistant coaches are highly skilled with impressive resumes, yet how efficiently will they execute in “Crunch Time”? Sooner or later, every coaching staff has to make tough calls with the game on the line. Have the metrics been set, and how efficiently will they execute? They will need to earn their stripes in battle and not in the media, so we are about to find out.

Here is a case study, and I give you Greg Mattison, the Buckeye’s current Defensive Coordinator.

Mattison is 69 years old. He has a long resume and he has been on coaching staffs at Notre Dame and Michigan to name a few, and now he is in his first year as a Defensive Coordinator on the Buckeye Coaching Staff. Nevertheless, Mattison has a less than distinguished record when it comes to playing the Spartans and here is a Case Study of just one losing experience.

On October 17, 2015, the #7 Spartans visited Ann Arbor to play #12 Michigan in Jim Harbaugh’s inaugural campaign. Mattison was on Jim Harbaugh’s staff.

Late in the game, Michigan led 23-21 with just seconds remaining on the clock. Nevertheless, the Spartans Defense forced Michigan to punt. It was a dire situation and Mark Dantonio and his staff had “nothing to lose”. Dantonio was going to rush 11 men with a singular purpose: to Block the Punt and score a game winning Touchdown. Mark Dantonio had no other option, and he didn’t deploy a return man. The intent was clear. It was either block the punt and score a Touchdown or go home!

So the Spartans lined up 11 men, and in a coaching blunder that only a first year coaching staff would make, Michigan deployed 2 Gunners/Tacklers to tackle an invisible return man. Of course the Spartans did not deploy a return man, yet Michigan deployed 2 Gunners to tackle an invisible return man regardless. Moreover, since Michigan deployed 2 useless Gunners, they thereby had to block 11 men with just 8. Not exactly good numbers and so it was a given the Spartans would get to the punter. Attempting to block 11 with 8 was only good deployment in the minds of Harbaugh and his first year coaching staff.

Of course the ball was snapped and at that point 11 “Thundering” Spartans rushed an Australian Punter whose experience in Aussie Rules Football left him unprepared for such an event, and with the sight of 11 “Thundering” Spartans getting closer and closer, the punter was distracted, (geeked if you will) he mishandled the snap, the football was free, and Jalen Watts-Jackson gathered the football for the Spartans, and he was quickly surrounded by a convoy of Spartan teammates and escorted into the End Zone for a game winning Touchdown. Game over. Final Score, Spartans 27…Michigan 23.

And that Ladies and Gentlemen is why Coaching continuity and Crunch time decisions are so critical, because the fog of battle is unforgiving. A coaching staff must be prepared for every single contingency, and today, Greg Mattison is employed by the Buckeyes yet he was one of Michigan’s coaches who stood by and watched Michigan deploy two Gunners to tackle an invisible return man.

We have no idea how this game will play out, but there will be critical plays to be called in Crunch time and it will be a measure of which coaching staff is best prepared. I give the advantage to Spartans Coaching continuity.

28 Spartan players seek to leave their legacy at the legendary Horseshoe:

The Spartans have 28 players on their roster who were born and bred in Ohio.

Moreover, the majority of those Ohio bred players were never offered a scholarship by the Buckeyes, nor have they ever beaten the Buckeyes. So every Ohio bred player will be coming home with a major “Chip” on their proverbial shoulders to prove the Buckeyes were wrong.

That’s a powerful motivator…and another powerful motivator is being disregarded and disrespected by the Buckeyes. In fact, I heard Robert Smith, the former Buckeye, Running Back declare just this week on the Big Ten Network that the Spartans are not in the category of being considered a rival to Ohio State.

Well, that’s just the type of verbosity that will inspire 28 Ohio bred Spartan players as well as a collection of Spartans who have been recruited from all around the country to prove the so called experts wrong.

At the bottom line:

The odds makers have installed the Buckeyes as 20 point favorites…don’t believe it.

I have great respect for the Buckeyes, but for the most part they have cruised through Blowouts, and players like Justin Fields as well as the Buckeye Coaching staff have yet to be tested in Crunch time, and today the Spartans will provide that test.

The stats and numbers tell me this game is even and the game will come down to Crunch time, so which team will be best prepared to execute in Crunch time? We’re about to see.

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