Featured image: Spartan prospect: Baton Rouge (La.) Scotlandville defensive back Jah’Von Grigsby. (Photo: 247Sports)
With the 2020 college football season in limbo, the most important activity taking place in college football at this moment is recruiting players for the class of 2021.
Recruiting has always been the lifeblood of college football and in today’s world, recruiting services such as ESPN, Rivals, Scout, 24/7 (to name a few), make football recruiting not only everyday conversation but measurable, and as goes recruiting, so goes future success.
Of course, recruiting can’t predict future success on the field, but it’s a prime indicator, and amongst many examples, there is a reason that Alabama has finished #1 in recruiting 4 out of the past 5 years and thereby won two National Titles. So, the most important activity taking place in college football at the moment is recruiting the class of 2021 and for the Spartans first year coaching staff, this is their first measurable.
Let’s look back: as Coronavirus shutdown unfolded in early March, the Spartans appeared to be up to the challenge. At that time, the Spartan new Coaching staff was making headlines for their innovative “Virtual Recruiting” model, in other words recruiting players via “video conferencing” as opposed to “on campus recruiting”.
At that time, the Spartans were amongst a handful of teams with at least 10 verbal commitments (in fact they had 12): they were ranked #23 in the land and #7 Big Ten and those are solid, if not exceptional rankings. However, since that time the Spartans have swooned.
As of June 23, the Spartans 2021 recruiting class ranks #57 Nationally and #11 Big Ten and the number that stands out is #11 amongst just 14 Big Ten teams.
While other schools have methodically moved up the rankings during the virus shutdown, the Spartans have dropped…and dropped precipitously: on May 20 the Spartans dropped to #29 (#7 Big Ten); thereafter they dropped into the 30’s…and then the 40’s. On Sunday June 14, the Spartans crossed a dubious threshold and fell to #50; on Monday, June 15 they fell to #51; June 18 they fell to #53; June 20 they fell to #56 and on June 22, they fell to #57.
To put that into perspective, this is the Spartans lowest recruiting ranking in the past 20 years.
The recent recruiting swoon may be easily overlooked by casual observers, but to street smart, savvy recruits, they are abundantly aware of which schools are trending up, and which schools are trending down and it causes recruits to ask the question: “…what in the world is going on at Michigan State?”.
And in a practical sense, if the Spartans don’t correct course, they are in danger of falling out of the recruiting race before “on campus” recruiting is reinstated. Although “Letters of Intent” can’t be executed until December, nevertheless recruiting is already at the half way marker and the Spartans are headed in the wrong direction.
So, the Spartans need to get back into the recruiting race and let’s take a closer look.
Virus shutdown…a challenge for all schools:
The virus shutdown has been a challenge for all schools but the Spartans haven’t added a new prospect in nearly 2 months, and in fact they suffered a highly visible “decommitment” from a Miami Defensive Back, then they lost a highly regarded Offensive Lineman from Bothell, Washington (near Seattle).
Meanwhile schools such as Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Texas A&M and USC are flexing their recruiting muscle and thereby climbing the recruiting charts. Of course, we didn’t expect the Spartans to compete against those schools, at least not in the first year of the Spartans new coaching regime.
Yet, we did expect the Spartans to outpace bottom tier Big Ten teams such as Maryland and Rutgers, and we certainly expected the Spartans to outpace “Group of 5” schools such as Appalachian State, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Duke, SMU, Toledo, and Wake Forest, but sadly that is not the case.
Meanwhile Rutgers is prospering with a new coach and a new plan..
In fact, Rutgers is enjoying unprecedented recruiting success under first year head coach, Greg Schianno. Rutgers is currently ranked #19 in the country (#7 Big Ten) and Schiano’s impact is notable when we consider that last year Rutgers ranked #66 in the land and #13 Big Ten.
Most important, we need to consider how Schianno is rebuilding Rutgers recruiting.
During the Coronavirus shutdown, Schianno has conspicuously focused upon players that know Rutgers best; he has focused upon the talent rich market within New Jersey and its environs: 13 of 21 recruits (60%) come from a 250 mile radius of campus, otherwise known as the “backyard”. By comparison, the Spartans only have 5 players from their “backyard”.
There are problems recruiting beyond the “backyard”:
Gabe Nealy a highly regarded Miami Cornerback reneged on the Spartan offer after just 44 days: let’s call it “recruiting remorse”.
Then there was Koli Faaiu a highly regarded Offensive Lineman from the Seattle area who flirted with the Spartans but then chose Utah: in both cases, valuable recruiting time was lost. In business it is called “opportunity lost cost”, which means the time lost recruiting can never be recovered or said another way, “while pursuing one goal, another goal is lost”.
The problems recruiting beyond your sphere of influence are real for a new coaching staff. Where do you want to expend your recruiting energy? Florida or Ohio? Seattle or Detroit?
And now, Hampton Faye a Quarterback from Ft. Worth who committed to the Spartans on April 25 is being pursued by Ole Miss and their enigmatic first year head coach, Lane Kiffin. Most would agree, Lane Kiffin is an idiosyncratic lot nevertheless he has been a Head Coach in the NFL, and his resume includes head coaching gigs at Tennessee (SEC) and USC (Pac 12) as well.
We would also be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge that Kiffin was Offensive Coordinator at Alabama as a member of Nick Saban’s staff from 2014 to 2016 and that includes a National Championship in 2015, so those are impressive credentials when viewed by impressionable recruits. Will Hampton Faye stay committed to the Spartans? Time will tell.
The Spartans are also pursuing Jah’Von Grigsby, a Defensive Back from Baton Rouge, LA (pictured above).
But like Gabe Nealy and Koli Faaiu, Jah’Von Grigsby and Hampton Faye have been recruited from well beyond the 250 mile recruiting radius, and problematically those recruits have little familiarity with Michigan State or its new coaching staff. That’s an unstable scenario.
It is generally considered there are 2 important spheres of recruiting influence: a 250 Mile radius which is considered “the backyard” and the 500 mile radius which in the Spartans case is essentially the (original) “Big Ten (Midwest) footprint”, yet except for 4 recruits from Michigan and 1 from Ohio, the Spartans coaching staff have largely disregarded the “backyard” in favor of searching for recruits in other regions of the country.
Half the Spartans recruits (verbal commitments if you will) hail from 1000 miles or more, and it is a fact the further a recruit is from home, the greater the chance they will decommit.
It’s also curious that Ohio has been disregarded as a recruiting ground by the Spartans new staff, and let’s remember, the Spartans have arguably had more success in the past 10 years recruiting the fertile State of Ohio than any school other than Ohio State.
By any measure, the Spartans can’t afford another “highly publicized” recruiting defection and recruiting the “backyard” is the most reliable place to seek talent for a first year coaching staff.
What is the baseline?
If a team hopes to compete for Conference Championships and seek an invitation to the College Football Playoffs, then they must “consistently” finish within the Top 25 of National Recruiting and that includes the Spartans.
Why Top 25?
The Top 25 is the bare minimum, because it takes into account the 5 best teams in each of the Power 5 conferences such as ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and PAC 12 yet that’s a minimum baseline. It’s a reasonable argument, if a school is unable to consistently finish within the Top 25 in national recruiting then let’s be realistic, there is virtually “zero” chance of winning a Conference Championship and by definition that means “zero” chance of winning a College Football Championship.
And if a program is “serious” about playing on the Big Stage, then Top 10 recruiting is the prescription.
In that case, where are the Spartan?
The Spartans haven’t finished within the Top 25 since 2016 and needless to say, Championships are conspicuously missing since that time. Moreover, the Dantonio model of finding “hidden gems” or finding “under the radar” unranked players in “unknown places” such as Darqueze Dennard, Jack Conklin and Le’Veon Bell has been rendered extinct in 2020 by way of highly sophisticated recruiting services such as ESPN, Rivals and Scout (and that’s just a few) because their coverage is 100% of all High School starters, and their rankings are based upon analytics and metrics.
Moreover, as it relates to video highlights, then YouTube, Facebook and Twitter bring the performance of “unknown” recruits right into the coaches video room. After all, those services weren’t well oiled machines when Mark Dantonio took the reins at Michigan State in 2006, but they are now, so the unknowns of the past are “unknown no more” and every school is competing for the best of the best.
So, to compete for championships, every program needs to rely upon their sphere of recruiting influence because the days of bringing in a recruiting class ranked in the 30’s or 40’s with the plan of “coaching ‘em up” and winning a championship” are gone!
Of course, we can assume once “on campus recruiting” is reinstated the Spartans will pick up the pace, but so will 56 other schools that currently rank ahead of the Spartans.
So, what will be the focus once “on campus recruiting” is reinstated?
At the bottom line (stick with the fundamentals and recruit the backyard):
The Spartans can’t officially sign 2021 recruits until December, but the clock is ticking and the Spartans need to get back into the recruiting race before it’s too late.
After all, 2021 recruits are the first measurable for this first year coaching staff, and players signed in December will determine success over the next 4 or 5 years.
Of course, there is nothing nuanced as it relates to recruiting the “backyard” (250 mile radius) and every coaching staff is abundantly aware of that, especially a new coaching staff. Yet, there is an urgent need for the Spartans new coaching staff to establish a recruiting foundation, a recruiting base, a recruiting pipeline and the best way to establish a base is by recruiting the “backyard”.
Sadly, Spartan recruiting has trended down since 2016, finishing in the Top 25 just once, and of course Championships are conspicuously missing since 2015. So the Spartans new coaching staff need to reverse that trend, and recruiting the “backyard” is the place to start, because those are the players that know Michigan State best, and those are the players who are least likely to decommit and most likely to go full term.
There will always be time for the new coaching staff to expand their recruiting horizon, but the 250 mile recruiting radius should be the foundation and never overlooked. Let’s be honest, this coaching staff is relatively unknown across the national recruiting landscape.
Moreover, potential recruits within a “250 mile radius” arguably have more familiarity with Michigan State than most coaches on the Spartans new coaching staff with the exception of Mike Tressel and Ron Burton: Tressel of course has been on staff for nearly 15 years while Burton has been on staff nearly a decade.
On the other hand, other coaches come from a variety of programs from all over the country in just the past 5 years including Colorado, Florida State, Georgia, Kansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Minnesota, North Carolina and Purdue, so staff continuity isn’t a strong suit. In fact, we could say the Spartans coaching staff is currently going through orientation on Michigan State campus.
So, it would make sense for the new coaching staff to err on the side of “recruiting the friendly confines of the backyard” which includes virtually all of Michigan as well as the northern half of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. After all, those are the players that are presold on Michigan State. And let’s remember, that includes Columbus, Detroit, Indianapolis and Chicago all of which are renowned as fertile recruiting grounds.
On the national scene, some schools have “recruiting swag” such as Alabama, Clemson, LSU and Ohio State all of which can recruit talent from nearly anywhere in the country because each have won a College Football Title in the last few years, and in the parlance of today’s recruits, those schools and their coaching staffs have “Championship cred”.
Meanwhile, within the Big Ten, coaching staffs at Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State and Wisconsin have Big Ten Division Championships and consequently they have earned their own measure of championship respect and can compete for the odd recruit in the far regions of the country.
Yet, the Spartans new coaching staff can’t flaunt Championships, so they have an uphill battle when competing for recruits against Championship coaching staffs, and the Spartans #57 recruiting ranking reflects that challenge.
The 2021 recruiting class is the first measurable of the Spartans new coaching staff, and they need to get back into the race, and that won’t be an easy because they have put themselves in a hole at #57. To put it into perspective by switching sports, I am honored that a number of former Spartan track stars read my Blog, including a few who have been elected to the Hall of Fame, and I think they would all agree, starting a final kick for the finish from 57th place is not the ideal spot to win a race.
Let’s hope the Spartans new coaching staff gets back into the recruiting race and the best place to start is by harvesting the backyard!
And going forward, as a stakeholder, it’s time the Spartans establish a plan to consistently harvest Top 10 recruiting classes which they haven’t done since the 50’s & 60’s. The last Top 10 recruiting class was 2000 and that occurred due to recruiting momentum generated by Nick Saban. With all the resources at Michigan State it is unthinkable there has only been one Top 10 recruiting class in the past 20 years! That must change.
Yet, like most Spartans, I would be satisfied with Top 25 class in 2021 and build from there!
So, the new coaching staff was hired to take Spartan Football to new heights, but to rise to the top, they need to start by proving they can recruit a Top 25 class in year 1.
Footnote: as of June 26, the Spartans rank #58 in recruiting when measured against D-1 Schools nationally, but rank #12 when measured against 14 Big Ten teams.
Thank you for reading.
