As we all know, Michigan barely survived 2 Overtimes to beat un-ranked Army 24-21 last Saturday, but Michigan got exposed as a Championship pretender, and I think it’s worth taking another look at Michigan’s flawed football operations and it starts with Jim Harbaugh.
Let’s go back to spring:
It started last Spring with Jim Harbaugh hiring his 3rd Offensive Coordinator and 3rd Passing Game Coordinator in less than 5 Years.
Harbaugh of course hired Josh Gattis a greenhorn Coordinator who had never called plays as an Offensive Coordinator before, but Harbaugh was desperate and Gattis was available. Yet, Gattis spoke in clever terms and described his system as “Speed in Space”. Of course, Gattis had never installed a system before. Nevertheless, Harbaugh was impressed and hired Gattis. The local media were mesmerized as well.
All through the Spring we heard about the prolific production of Michigan’s Offense (even though no one saw the Offense). “Unlimited potential” the coaches and players told the media. The media bought the story and everyone drank the Kool Aid. The media was more than eager to embrace the proposition that Michigan would win the Big Ten and go to the College Football Playoffs.
Sorry…Not So Fast.
Fast forward to last Saturday: unranked Army was on the schedule to play Michigan and the Cadets were installed as a 23 Point Underdog, and for good reason. West Point Cadets attend the Military Academy to become Military Officers first and foremost, football is a distant second.
Of course, the Army Cadets were supposed to cower with intimidation at the size and vastness of Michigan Stadium. The Cadets were also supposed to shrink at the sight of Michigan’s highly recruited players who are bigger, faster, stronger and loaded with a bounty of “4 & 5 Star” recruits.
Yet, on the second weekend of the College football season, Army’s small traveling squad took the field at Michigan Stadium, but they didn’t blink and they didn’t cower. In fact, on Michigan’s first Offensive series, while media types expected Michigan to march down the field and take total command of the football game, Army had other plans. Army yielded just 33 Yards to Michigan’s vaunted “Speed in Space” Offense on the first series, and to end the series Army “Sacked” Michigan’s Quarterback for a 12 Yard loss and in so doing, stripped the football: Army recovered.
So much for Army being intimidated…the Cadets were set to play a football game. Was Michigan?
At the end of the game, including two OT’s, Army held Michigan’s vaunted “Speed in Space” Offense to just 108 Yards Rushing (a meager 2.4 Yards per attempt). Army forced 4 Sack’s for minus 30 Yards (-30)…forced 4 fumbles (and recovered 3)…pressured 7 dropped passes, and Michigan was so discombobulated they committed 9 penalties. Michigan’s Offense was beaten at the Line of Scrimmage all afternoon.
Army’s Offense didn’t blink either.
Let’s make this clear: as it relates to Offense, Army is a one dimensional football team that embraces no inclination to pass the football. Army is a Run on first down team, a Run on second down team, a Run on third down team, and when they cross midfield, Army is a Run on fourth down team as well. Army’s Offense is not shrouded in Mystery!
And while there was no mystery regarding Army’s game plan, nevertheless Army rang the bell for 200 Yards Rushing and controlled the football for the better part of 32 minutes. For the afternoon, Army only attempted 5 passes, yet Michigan was unable to stop Army on the ground.
Michigan has superior athletes, but where was their “will to win”?
On paper Michigan had incredibly superior athletes to Army, and the recruiting stats tell that story.
Over the past 4 years, Harbaugh and Michigan have consistently recruited Top 10 Recruiting classes, made up in part of sixty (60) “4&5 Star” recruits. Meanwhile, Army doesn’t have a single “4 or 5 Star” player on their entire roster.
While Michigan consistently ranks in the Top 10 out of 129 D-1 Schools as it relates to recruiting, Army ranks at the bottom of 129 D-1 Schools inasmuch as their last 4 recruiting classes ranked #99-#117-#120 and #117 respectively.
On paper, Michigan should have worn down Army’s smaller, undersized and slower players by the middle of the 3rd Qtr. and thereafter cruised into the post game locker room with a 30 point victory or so, but when all was said and done, Army “beat up” Michigan at the point of attack, and forced two Overtimes, and narrowly lost 21-24.
In fact, Army had what Michigan didn’t have…smart, tactical coaching and a “will to win”. Army won the “street fight”. If you looked at body language among Michigan players, and/or facial expression of Michigan coaches, they were thanking their lucky stars to get a victory, because at the end of the day Army won the battle yet narrowly lost on the scoreboard.
Harbaugh is a flawed builder of football operations:
Let’s not forget, in less than 5 seasons, Harbaugh has churned through 13 Assistant Coaches, including 2 Defensive Coordinators, 3 Offensive Coordinators, 3 Passing Game Coordinators, Offensive Line coach…Defensive Line Coach…Linebacker Coach…and Defensive Backfield Coach. Did I forget anyone? Regardless, Harbaugh has overseen 130% Turnover among a staff of 10.
And among those 13 Coaching changes was the aforementioned Josh Gattis who was hired in January as Michigan’s newest Offensive Coordinator and Passing Game Coordinator. Gattis was charged with implementing an Offensive scheme that he cleverly refers to as “Speed in Space”. Nice novel descriptor isn’t it? But this is football whereby execution works, and novelty doesn’t work. As a reminder, Josh Gattis never called a single Offensive play until he arrived at Michigan.
Needless to say, the Big Ten is not a good place to get “on the job training”. With Josh Gattis as OC and Passing Game Coordinator, Michigan is a muddled, disorganized, discombobulated Offense ranked in the bottom 50 percentile of 129 D-1 Schools. Moreover, Michigan’s Offense is a befuddled blend between Harbaugh “Power Football” & Gattis “Speed in Space” scheme, essentially an Offense without an identity.
Players, play, and coaches, coach, but there has to be a coherent system and a coherent organization, and Harbaugh has built neither. Harbaugh not only doesn’t have a stable organization (13 coaching changes in less than 5 years), he is also grasping at straws with system changes. At any measure, thirteen coaching changes in less than 5 years underscores that Harbaugh doesn’t have a clue how to build an organization, and a lack of continuity undermines success at any level.
Proof is in the lack of execution.
After two games and while playing “Gattis-ball”, Michigan has fumbled 8 times (lost 5)…got Sacked 6 times for minus 49 Yards (-49) and committed 17 penalties. They may call Gattis system, “Speed in Space”, but on the football field, Michigan’s Offense is apprehensive and tentative and it takes an eternity to call a play!
Teams are supposed to improve between Week 1 and Week 2, but it is abundantly clear that Gattis has regressed. He is apparently unnerved at the reality of calling plays at game speed. Of course, calling Offensive plays at game speed is a whole lot different than drawing up plays on the white board in the spring, or calling plays in practice.
Michigan’s Quarterback situation is a muddled mess as well…
It’s worth noting, Harbaugh has deployed 5 different Quarterbacks in 5 seasons, and that’s OK if a team is winning Championships but Michigan isn’t. Moreover, not a single Quarterback recruited by Harbaugh has played an entire season. We were told Harbaugh was a Quarterback whisperer…but let’s be clear, that’s a sham. Harbaugh has relied upon Graduate Transfers in the past 5 seasons…more commonly known as deploying Quarterbacks developed by other coaches.
At any measure, after 8 years of coaching Power 5 Football (4 years at Stanford, and 4 Years at Michigan) Harbaugh has never won a Championship of any kind, not even a Division Title and Michigan paid $49 Million for Harbaugh: what were they expecting in return?
For 13 opposing teams in the Big Ten, they are saying to Michigan: “keep doing what you are doing”, yet University of Michigan and its athletic department must ask the question: “where is this Harbaugh experiment going?”
Was Michigan’s goal to win Championships with Harbaugh, or simply put a “nice” football team on the field that enables fans to visit campus and enjoy wine & cheese soirees at Tailgate functions, and thereby revel in counting all of Michigan’s National Titles won before 1950? (of course, Michigan has only won a single National Title in the past 69 years). Yet, if Michigan was seeking Championships, they got the wrong guy.
Harbaugh won’t get better with age, and in spite of pundit predictions, Harbaugh won’t win a Championship this year, or next, or next.
Harbaugh is 1-9 vs Ranked Opponents since 2015 (it won’t get better in 2019):
Harbaugh has a history of pounding the daylights out of inferior opponents, but Harbaugh is out of his element when he plays the best of big time coaches, in fact he has posted just 1 victory offset by 9 losses vs ranked opponents since 2015.
It is also well documented that Harbaugh has a history of making an abundance of game day coaching blunders! Army is an example. I warned about the threat of Army, and Harbaugh barely survived, but Michigan must still play 6 ranked opponents in 2019 none of whom will be merciful.
For starters, in two weeks, Michigan will visit Madison, Wisconsin to play #14 Wisconsin. If you are unaware, Wisconsin has beaten two opponents by a cumulative score of 110-0. Let’s repeat, 110-0, yielding ZERO points in two games: 49-0 vs South Florida…and 61-0 vs Central Michigan. In addition, Michigan must play #19 Iowa…#13 Penn State…#7 Notre Dame…#18 Michigan State…and #6 Ohio State in that order.
But, let’s take a look at Michigan’s most problematic Big Ten opponents including Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State, each of whom are ranked within the Top 20 in Total Defense, Rushing Defense and Scoring Defense, which means those Defenses will be most problematic for Michigan’s discombobulated, “Speed in Space” Offense to “find space”, move the football and/or score points.
Let’s take a look at those four Big Ten opponents listed by AP Ranking…Total Defense…and Rushing Defense amongst 129 D-1 schools:
- #14 Wisconsin: #1 Total Defense…#2 Rushing Defense
- #19 Iowa: #4 Total Defense…#17 Rushing Defense
- #18 Michigan State: #13 Total Defense…#1 Rushing Defense
- #6 Ohio State: #20 Total Defense…#11 Rushing Defense
At the bottom line:
Jim Harbaugh and Josh Gattis better hold on for dear life when they deploy “Speed in Space” against the aforementioned Big Ten Defenses, and Michigan fans better enjoy their Tailgate soirees during the fall because it is probably too painful for them to admit they paid $49 Million for a Championship pretender!
Spartans on Friday:
On Friday, we’ll set the table as the Spartans get ready to host #35 Arizona State.
