Note: this is another in a series of articles trying to assess Mel Tucker’s coaching tenure. In this edition, we take an in depth look at the first game of 2023 and ask the question: what did we learn? I hope you find it informative.
After an unsteady start including a narrow 10-7 Halftime lead, the Spartans regained a bit of equilibrium then scored 21 unanswered points in the 2nd half and posted a 31-7 victory.
A win is a win, but what did we learn?
- Is the Offense more efficient?
- Is the Defense more dominant?
- Is there improvement controlling the Line of Scrimmage?
CMU retrospective:
At game time, the point spread dropped to 13.5 points and we could argue that was a veritable indictment of Spartan Football.
It’s important to remember, CMU posted a dismal 4-8 record last season including 3 victories vs losing teams.
Moreover, CMU earned a dismal preseason ranking somewhere between #110 and #119 when measured against 133 FBS schools and that means CMU was ranked in the bottom 17th percentile of the FBS.
Of course, the Spartans posted a 31-7 victory but at the end of the night, we didn’t see a lot of positives. In fact, we didn’t see any more positives from the opening victory vs CMU than we did from the 35-13 victory vs WMU in the first game last season.
In fact, a statistical comparison tells us the “Stats” compiled against CMU and WMU were eerily similar.
Let’s remember, last season, WMU posted a 4-4 record (#6 MAC overall), while CMU posted a 3-5 record (#9 MAC overall) which means the opening game opponents in both years were remarkably similar so they become the best “apples to apples” comparison we have.
Of course, comparative scores and stats are not definitive, nevertheless they are prime indicators, so I thought it worth taking a comparative look.
Comparative Stats:
Final Score: 35-13 vs WMU…31-7 vs CMU.
- Total Offense: 430 Yds vs WMU…406 Yds vs CMU
- Rush Offense: 197 Yds vs WMU…127 Yds vs CMU
- Pass Offense: 233 Yds vs WMU…279 Yds vs CMU
- 3rd Down Conv: 6-18 (33%) vs WMU…5-13 (38%) vs CMU
- Total Defense: Yield 334 Yds vs WMU…Yield 219 Yards vs CMU.
- Rush Defense: Yield 141 Yds vs WMU…Yield 123 Yds vs CMU.
- Pass Defense: Yield 193 Yds vs WMU…Yield 96 Yards vs CMU.
- 3rd Down Conv: 3-10 (30%) vs WMU…3-15 (20%) vs CMU.
- Penalties: 2 (-30 yards) vs WMU…8 (-66 yards) vs CMU.
- Time of Poss: 37:22 vs WMU…25:34 vs CMU
What are the takeaways?
It’s virtually impossible to find a discernible “year over year” improvement either Offensively or Defensively…so in and of itself, that’s not good.
Let’s remember, WMU finished last season ranked #116 in the land, while CMU commenced this season ranked between #110 and #119, so the comparative scores and stats are relevant even if not definitive.
We should also remember, the Spartan Offense impressively rolled up 430 Yards vs WMU last season and Scored 35 points yet went on to lose 7 games thereafter.
So, compiling 406 Yards and 31 Points vs CMU is not a time for post-game celebration, rather the comparative stats send a message there is a lot of work needed to prevent another 7-loss season.
In fact, I will make this declarative statement, if Mel Tucker, Jay Johnson, and Chris Kapilovic are unable to “fix” their Rush Offense prior to Big Ten season then plenty of problems await.
I would also argue, Spartan fans are numb to just how far the Rush Offense has declined.
After all, the Rush Offense averaged just 95 YPG in Big Ten competition last season, which means it ranked #12 amongst 14 Big Ten teams, or #110 when measured against 130 FBS schools.
Breaking it down vs CMU:
Everyone was celebrating Nathan Carter for his 31 Yard run to open the game (fair enough), but then the drive stalled.
Thereafter, Carter compiled just 82 yards on 17 attempts for 4.8 Yards per. He also got stopped twice on 4th & 1, so his 31 Yard opening run was nice, but his 82 Yard production thereafter was nothing more than journeyman’s caliber and we can definitively declare; Nathan Carter is not the second coming of Kenneth Walker III.
In addition, Jalen Berger compiled 24 Yards Rushing including a 12-yard run, but thereafter he only gained 12 Yards on 7 attempts or just 1.71 Yards per.
And overall, the Spartans had 7 drives that totaled just 30 yards.
Those stats might suffice in a game against CMU, but they won’t fly in Big Ten competition. After all, there is no Badge of Honor eking out 127 Yards Rushing vs CMU or executing 7 drives for 30 yards.
To compete for a Big Ten championship a team must average at least 170 Yards Rushing to get into the championship conversation.
In Big Ten competition last season Michigan averaged 246 Yards Rushing…Ohio State 196…and Penn State 171…even Minnesota averaged 187 yards yet finished #4 Big Ten West.
So, compiling 127 Yards Rushing vs CMU from the MAC, a team ranked #110 or worse depending upon the preseason poll, is a strong indicator the Spartan Rush Offense isn’t fixed, and it also means Mel Tucker and his staff have a long, long way to go to reach competitive Big Ten standards.
Let’s also remember, the Spartan Rush Offense posted 197 Yards Rushing vs WMU last season and then posted 260 Yards Rushing the following week vs Akron, and everyone celebrated a two game Rushing average of nearly 230 yards.
Then the wheels came off.
The Rush Offense demonstrated it was not ready for “prime time” when it compiled just 42 Yards Rushing vs Washington in week 3, and that portended bad things to come, because the Rush Offense averaged just 95 Yards per game in Big Ten competition.
So, the feeble Rushing stats vs CMU, as well as 7 drives for just 30 yards, are warning indicators and demonstrate once again that Chris Kapilovic (O-Line Coach and Run Game Coordinator) along with Jay Johnson (O-Coordinator) are simply over their head.
And it also underscores that Mel Tucker’s staff operate arguably the most unimaginative Offense on the Planet, and, if the Rush Offense isn’t fixed by the time Washington comes to town, then we are likely to see a replay of 2022 disaster.
Outrageous lack of Discipline:
Discipline and consistency are “keys” to success, yet four years into the Mel Tucker experiment, his team demonstrated an outrageous lack of discipline.
The worst thing that can occur in sport is beating oneself.
Yet, in the game vs CMU, the Spartans were flagged 8 times resulting in 66 yards in penalties yet most egregious of all, they committed 4 personal fouls including 3 Facemask penalties and 1 unsportsmanlike penalty.
What are we coaching Mel? How long have you been doing this?
At the bottom line: (the season starts when Washington comes to town):
CMU and Richmond deserve respect, yet they serve as nothing more than exhibition warmups so the season doesn’t start until the Spartans commence playing Power 5 opponents.
And, Washington is the first of 10.
Let’s remember, Spartan fans were enthusiastically optimistic after starting 2-0 vs WMU and Akron last season, but then the Spartans played University of Washington and got a shocking wake up call.
The Huskies posted nearly 400 Yards Passing and rang the bell for 39 points and beat the Spartans 39-28 yet the scoring differential could have been worse.
The Huskies held the Spartan Offense to just 42 Rush Yards and we learned in a single afternoon that Mel Tucker’s team was not ready for Prime Time.
In fact, the Spartans demonstrated they were incapable of Rushing the football with efficiency and incapable of defending the pass (thank you Mel Tucker and Harlon Barnett).
The humiliation served up by Washington prompted Mel Tucker to declare, and I won’t edit his words. Mel said emphatically: “I’m a horseshit football coach right now”.
MT probably thought he was defusing the situation as a “one off” anomaly, and the critics would give him a break, but then MT went on to lose 6 more games, so the Washington loss was an omen of bad things to come, and no one challenged Mel Tucker’s self deprecating statement that he was a “Horseshit Coach”.
Now comes Washington 2.0 with an ever more improved team in 2023.
Washington finished 11-2 last season, including a 39-28 beat down of the Spartans.
This season Washington commenced the season ranked #10 and beat the daylights out of Boise State 56-19 last Saturday including the fact UW scored 21 points in the 4th Qtr.
Washington QB, Michael Penix completed 74% of his passes for 490 Yards at more than 15 Yards per completion including 6 Touchdowns.
Of course, Washington was ranked #10 preseason yet proved they are worthy of being ranked higher.
On the other hand, the Spartans were ranked #50 or worse before the season and they didn’t do anything to disprove that dismal ranking.
In fact, after the first game, the Spartans dismal preseason ranking was confirmed given the fact they are currently ranked #58 while on the other hand, non elite football powers including Troy #52…Air Force #51…and UTSA #31 all have better rankings.
So, the Washington game will be Mel Tucker’s chance to redeem himself. If he beats Washington at Spartan Stadium, he can thereby change the mind of his critics especially if he goes on to post a winning record in the Big Ten, say, 5-4 or better.
If on the other hand, Washington methodically dismantles the Spartans and Michael Penix passes for nearly 400 yards as he did last season (or nearly 500 yards as he did against Boise State) then the script that “Mel Tucker can’t coach” will go into hard cover print.
So, show us what you got Mel because Spartan fans are waiting to see a positive return on their $95 Mn investment. After all, Spartan fans want to know if you got what it takes to win a Championship, or if you are sticking to your list of excuses?
The future lies in your hands.
Thank you for reading.
Dayne Thomas
Will2Win.blog
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