Spartan football defied the odds and posted an impressive 11-2 record last season, but can they improve in 2022?
Spartan fans say yes, but pundits aren’t so sure.
In fact, most pundits predict the Spartans will finish #4 or lower in the Big Ten East with anticipated losses to Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and possibly Wisconsin and/or Maryland.
Nevertheless, football games are still played on the football field and not on the sports page, so those predictions are mere speculation and conjecture.
Yet, one could argue those predictions take into account some cold, hard facts, including but not limited to the loss of Kenneth Walker III, the premier Running Back of 2021. In that regard, replacing Walker including 1600 Yards and 18 TD’s won’t easily be solved thru the Transfer Portal.
There are also an abundance of question marks along the Offensive Line which has been inconsistent and unstable since 2014, a season when the Rush Offense ranked a respectable #19 (top 15th percentile). Thereafter, its best mark was a middling #53 preceded by three consecutive years ranked #114…#113…and #122 (the bottom 15th percentile) which is downright deplorable.
But the biggest problem of all is the Spartans “incredibly porous” Pass Defense. After all, it’s no secret, the Spartans Pass Defense was “the worst” in the land last season when measured against 130 D-1 schools, and with that as a foundation, it contributed to the Spartans being ranked the worst overall Defense in the Big Ten as well…and there is nothing in those rankings that Spartan fans can feel good about.
And how bad was the Spartans Pass Defense?
The Pass Defense yielded an astounding 325 YPG, or 150 YPG more than Wisconsin the #1 Pass Defense in the Big Ten. The Pass Defense also yielded 27 Passing TDs compared to just 9 for Wisconsin. So, the Pass Defense was unspeakably bad and not up to traditional Spartan Defensive standards.
Of course, there was one more troublesome metric: the Spartans Pass Defense virtually collapsed at the end of last season yielding nearly 1700 Yards in the final 4 regular season games. Of course, the Spartans lost two of those 4 games and were eliminated from Big Ten title contention. A “No Fly Zone”, it was not!
Needless to say, that’s not a great transition into 2022.
And while the Spartans finished with an impressive 11-2 record in 2021, nevertheless there were 10 other teams in the land whose Pass Defenses yielded 270 Yards or more per game and those schools all lost between 4 & 10 games.
So, pundits think the Spartans were fortunate to only lose 2 games last season given the inefficiency of its Pass Defense and it stands to reason, if the Pass Defense isn’t fixed this season, then the Spartans will be exceedingly vulnerable at the hands of the best passing teams in the Big Ten including but not limited to #1 Ohio State; #3 Maryland; #4 Penn State and #7 Michigan.
The caution flag is flying and WMU will be a major litmus test.
Mel Tucker delivers “tough love” message to Players and Coaches:
For those who think I have been unfairly critical of the Spartans Pass Defense then it’s worth noting that Mel Tucker is even more critical.
When asked at Big Ten Media Days if the Spartans Pass Defense will improve this year, Mel Tucker said somewhat sarcastically: “I hope so…it can’t get any worse”.
And when Mel Tucker described the overriding problems of the Spartans Pass Defense to his Football team, he said this:
“I said ‘listen, we were last in the country…dead-ass last…that’s going to change…it’s going to change with the guys in this room and the coaches…that’s how it’s going to change.” (unquote)
Clearly, Mel Tucker recognizes the problem and he’s not happy. He also recognizes the problem is more nuanced than simply adding a couple speedy Cornerbacks to his 4-2-5 Defensive alignment.
MT sees it as a systemic problem and consequently he is pointing his finger at bad play calling and blown assignments, in other words, he is pointing his finger at current players and coaches, the same players and coaches who will take the field this season.
So, players and coaches are getting fair warning from their Head Coach…
But MT is also taking accountability because he has appointed himself Cornerback Coach.
Of course, it’s common for Head Coaches to assume the role of Quarterback Coach, or Offensive Coordinator, or even Defensive Coordinators, but it is rather uncommon for a Head Coach to take a “hands on” role as Cornerback coach, yet that is what MT has chosen to do.
Clearly, MT isn’t hiding and he is not running, instead he has accepted “hands on” accountability for fixing the biggest problem on his football team!
But can he stop the bleeding?
WMU will challenge the Spartans Pass Defense from the opening Offensive play:
Of course, Western Michigan will come to Spartan Stadium intending to exploit the Spartans “porous” Pass Defense.
After all, WMU have a cadre of athletes and a library of Spartan video from last season to build their game plan, so assuredly they will test the Spartans Pass Defense from the opening offensive play.
It’s worth noting, WMU ranked an impressive #16 in Pass Efficiency last season when measured against 130 D-1 Schools.
They completed 64% their passing attempts and averaged 253.7 YPG at 14.15 yards per completion. All in, they scored 23 Passing Touchdowns and yielded just 6 Interceptions…or 3.8 Touchdowns to 1 Interception…and that’s efficient!
If you want a contextual comparison regarding the athleticism, speed, and efficiency of WMU Pass Offense, then interestingly, look no further than the Spartans Pass Offense to provide a meaningful comparison.
Let’s remember, Spartan fans were extremely pleased last season with the passing production of Payton Thorne, Jayden Reed, Tre Mosley, and company, and rightfully so, so here are a few comparative metrics…
Last season the Spartan Pass Offense ranked #41 in Pass Efficiency when measured against 130 D-1 Schools.
The Spartans completed 61% of its passing attempts and averaged 253.6 YPG at 13.57 Yards per completion. All in, they scored 27 Touchdowns and yielded 10 Interceptions.
As a rule, I don’t depict stats in decimals because it’s a bit like “splitting hairs”, yet I chose decimals for this comparison because it illustrates that finding an advantage between Western Michigan Pass Offense and Michigan State Pass Offense is a bit like “splitting hairs”.
Yet, it is notable that WMU ranked a “tick” better than the Spartans in 4 key categories, including:
- Pass Efficiency (#16 to #41);
- Completion Pct (64% to 61%);
- Yards per completion (14.15 to 13.57);
- Touchdowns to Interceptions (3.8 to 1 vs 2.7 to 1).
By all measures, WMU compiled some formidable Passing stats last season and they will be prepared to test the Spartans Pass Defense all day long.
Of course, WMU compiled its stats in the MAC, but It would be a huge mistake to disrespect or underestimate the coaching and athleticism of teams in the MAC.
So, WMU will be a formidable opening game test for the Spartans “porous” Pass Defense, but the question becomes: has the Spartans Pass Defense improved?
WMU will test that hypothetical question commencing on the opening Offensive play.
Jeff Thorne will make WMU Offense even better in 2022!
I trust you are aware that WMU hired Jeff Thorne last February to become its Offensive Coordinator.
Jeff Thorne of course is the father of Spartan Quarterback, Payton Thorne and son of John Thorne, the legendary coach from Wheaton Warrenville South HS and North Central College.
For his part, Jeff Throne had a distinguished career as player and coach. He was a 4-year starting QB at Eastern Illinois and commenced his coaching career in 1994. Then in 2015, Jeff Thorne took the reins from his father to become Head Football Coach at Division III, North Central College.
At North Central, Thorne compiled an auspicious record of 66-10 (87%), including 4 CCIW conference championships complemented by five (5) Top 10, Division III finishes in just 7 years.
He also compiled a 12-4 record in Division III playoff games including a National Championship in 2019, so Jeff Thorne’s coaching credentials are impeccable and WMU made an auspicious coaching acquisition.
Of course, WMU is hoping Jeff Thorne will guide its offense to championship heights and that’s a fair assumption given the fact that Thorne will inherit an already efficient Offense that ranked #12 in the land in 2021, including #17 Rushing & #16 Pass Efficiency.
So, it will be an intriguing game of chess between Jeff Thorne’s Passing Offense and Mel Tucker’s Pass Defense.
At the bottom line: Who wins the chess match?
It will be an intriguing story because the game pits a highly credentialed Offensive Coach (Jeff Thorne) vs a highly experienced Defensive Coach (Mel Tucker), but who wins the chess match?
The Spartans are favored by 19 points, but in the bigger picture the game will be a referendum regarding the coaching expertise of Jeff Thorne vs Mel Tucker.
If the Spartans Pass Defense is fixed to the point whereby it shuts down WMU, then it may signal Mel Tucker has worked a measure of magic and it will be considered an omen of good things to come including the possibility of competing for a Big Ten title this season.
If on the other hand, the Pass Defense is unable to shut down WMU and enables WMU to match or exceed its Passing averages from last season (in other words, completing 64% of its passes for 250 yards or more) then it would be a fair assumption that not much is fixed.
If that’s the case, it also means the Spartans Pass Defense is highly unlikely to stop the best Passing Offenses in the Big Ten this season including Ohio State, Maryland, Penn State and Michigan and that means the championship niche in the trophy case will remain vacant for another year.
Let’s hope Mel Tucker has worked a “measure of magic” and fixed his problematic Pass Defense, and let’s also hope the Spartans get a rousing, dominant victory to kick off the season with championship dreams alive and well.
Thank you for reading and I always welcome your comments and opinions
