Mark Dantonio proclaimed on his weekly radio show: “We still have the possibility of winning 10 football games…”.

Fair enough…of course it’s possible, but what is the probability?

While the Spartans have played the most difficult part of their schedule this season including games against #17 Arizona State; #6 Wisconsin and #4 Ohio State, the Spartans still have 5 regular season games remaining, including #7 Penn State and #16 Michigan and so we have to balance Mark Dantonio’s optimism with reality.

All 5 remaining games are winnable of course, but running the table and winning a Bowl game to achieve 10 wins with a team whose spirit is shaken, and with an unreliable Offense, makes a 10 win season low probability in my view.

Of course, the Spartans attempted a makeover of their Offense after last season, but have we seen improvement from 2018 to 2019? First, let’s look back at the dismal stats posted in 2018 that prompted a change, and here they are: 125 Yards Rushing…217 Yards Passing…and just 19 Points per game, all of which were historic lows.

So, using 2018 as a benchmark, let’s see if there has been improvement between 2018 and 2019 in 3 critical Offensive Statistics:

• Rushing Offense: 117 Yards per game in 2019,  compared to 125 Yards per game in 2018 = (-8 Yards per game)
• Passing Offense: 240 Yards per game in 2019, compared to 217 Yards per game in 2018 = +23 Yards per game
• Scoring Offense: 24 Points per game in 2019, compared to 19 Points per game 2018 = +5 Points per game

Statistically, when measured against 129 Division 1 Schools, there has been no measurable improvement from 2018 to 2019. And when we mix in 23 dropped passes in 2019, it is nearly impossible to achieve any measure of Offensive consistency. Indeed, after 7 games in 2019, the Spartans have posted a record of 4-3 overall, and 2-2 Big Ten, the exact same record as 2018 after 7 games…so it appears the Spartans Offense is caught in “spin cycle”…and status quo for a floundering Offense is an ominous sign.

But to put the Spartans dismal Offensive production into national perspective, lets measure the Spartans Offense vs Oklahoma which has the #1 Offense in the land in 2019:

• Rushing Offense: Spartans 117 Yards per game compared to Oklahoma averaging 286 Yards per game (+169 Yards per game in favor of Oklahoma)
• Passing Offense: Spartans 240 Yards per game compared to Oklahoma averaging 335 Yards per game (+ 95 Yards per game in favor of Oklahoma)
• Scoring Offense: Spartans 24 Points per game compared to Oklahoma averaging 50 Points per game (+ 26 Points per game in favor of Oklahoma)

If the goal is winning the Big Ten and competing for National Titles, then the Offensive stats posted by Oklahoma help identify just how far the Spartans Offense is from competing at the highest level.

The Spring Game told us what we needed to know:

Here is what I wrote after the Spring Game:

As for progress…if we were searching for Offensive improvement, the Spring Game raised more questions than it answered.

After 40 minutes of football whereby the Spartan Offense played the Spartan Defense in a controlled scrimmage, and whereby the Offense possessed the football for 40 minutes (considerably more than a regular season game), the Offense posted just 26 points which is hardly an improvement from 2018 whereby they averaged just 18.7 Points per game.

Granted it was a Spring Game, and granted there were nuances in clock management, but by all measures the Spring Game was not a shining moment for the Spartans Offense given they only posted 108 Yards Rushing, which fell below their “woeful” average of 125 Yards Rushing in 2018 that ranked #114 in the land. Moreover the Offense committed 4 turnovers including two fumbles and two Interceptions.

Of course, a major problem in recent years has been inconsistent run blocking, and if we were looking for improvement along the Offensive Line, we didn’t see it, inasmuch as 5 different Running Backs got chances to “carry the mail” in the Spring Game, yet 5 Running Backs combined for just 108 Yards Rushing, and not a single Running Back averaged more than 3.3 Yards per attempt…and 3.3 Yards per attempt won’t “move the chains”.

Nevertheless, Brad Salem and Jim Bollman have been given the “keys” to the Spartans Offense, and that means they have the opportunity to reshape the Offense…yet looking at recent history, that’s a tall ladder to climb.

At the bottom line:

Mark Dantonio is a smart tactician.

He took over a dysfunctional football program, and since taking the reins Mark Dantonio has posted a record of 110-51 overall, 66-34 Big Ten, 5 Bowl victories, 3 Big Ten Titles, and a trip to the College Football Playoff, so Mark Dantonio is a man of conviction and man with a “can do” attitude…but sadly after a 5 year decline in Offensive production, he needs to rethink his Offensive strategy…status quo isn’t working!