When I say defied the odds, I mean there is simply no template or reference point for a team to turn over nearly 50 players and yet win 11 games including a 31-21 Bowl victory vs Pitt, complemented by a Top 10 finish, and yet the Spartans did that some way, somehow.
Let’s remember, the Spartans lost 27 players via the Transfer Portal shortly after the 2020 season, and then acquired 18 players prior to spring practice from schools and conferences across the country.
It was essentially a 40% Roster Turnover and based upon conventional principles of organizational structure and the importance of roster continuity and stability it was highly unlikely the Spartans would even win a handful of games, yet week to week, the Spartans defied the odds and posted victory after victory.
On Sep 18 the Spartans beat #24 Miami on the road…a week later the Spartans beat Nebraska in OT…on October 30 the Spartans beat #6 Michigan …on Nov 27 the Spartans beat Penn State in a snow storm…and finally the Spartans closed the season by beating #12 Pitt 31-21 in the Peach Bowl.
Along the way, the Spartans were opportunistic and took advantage of opponents mistakes, outscoring Miami 21-3 in the 4th Qtr…outscoring Michigan 15-3 in the 4th Qtr…and outscoring Pitt 21-0 in the 4th Qtr.
So, give Mel Tucker credit because he defied the odds, but there is still a huge amount of work to do to prove the success of 2021 is sustainable.
Can Mel Tucker take the next step and win a Championship in 2022?
If Championships are the goal (and let’s hope that’s the case) then Mel Tucker has two major problems to fix: the Pass Defense and Rushing Offense.
So, let’s start with the Spartans “porous” Pass Defense.
While the Spartans won 11 games, the Pass Defense dodged an aerial assault all season. The Pass-D finished “dead last” amongst 130 D-1 Schools and “dead last” in the Big Ten yielding an average of 325 Yards Passing per game. In that context, it is simply amazing the Spartans were able to win 11 games.
If we look closer, the Pass Defense yielded a staggering 1,879 Yards in just 4 games, or an average of 470 Passing Yards against Michigan…Ohio State…Purdue…and Western Kentucky. In fact, in one stunning afternoon, the Pass Defense yielded 536 Yards and 3 Passing TD’s to Purdue resulting in a 40-29 loss and that took the Spartans out of the hunt for a Big Ten East title.
So what is the problem with the Pass Defense?
Is the problem due to coaching…or is it due to scheme, assignment and coverage…is the problem due to player personnel…or is the problem due to a combination of everything cited?
Some fans want to simply place all the blame on player personnel citing lack of talent, inexperience and injury, but I see it differently: I see a broken unit with glaring lapses in scheme, coverage and adjustments, and besides, when do we hold coaches such as Tavares Tillman and Harlon Barnett accountable for at least developing a functional secondary?
Let’s be honest, the secondary doesn’t have the “occasional lapse in coverage”…it is unequivocally the worst in the country!
It’s notable that Cornerbacks Coach, Tavares Tillman has departed to take a job at Georgia Tech. So, was Tillman encouraged to depart? And what about Harlon Barnett? Barnett oversees the entire Defensive Secondary, but what is his future at Michigan State?
Of course Barnett is a former Spartan player with NFL pedigree but as a coach in Mark Dantonio’s scheme, he got ample support from Ron Burton and Mike Tressel who coached the “Front 7”.
In Dantonio’s scheme, the “Front 7” put enormous pressure on opposing QB’s and that helped disrupt opposing Pass Offenses.
Of course, Mark Dantonio was the Defensive architect, yet we have to ask, without Dantonio’s support is Barnett up to the task of guiding the Defensive Secondary because his game day performance in the past two years is raising “red flags”? And let’s be clear, Barnett didn’t exactly distinguish himself during his 2 year stint as Defensive Coordinator at Florida State.
Regardless, Mel Tucker has some tough decisions to make because what the Pass Defense is doing now, isn’t working!
And Mel Tucker needs to fix the Rushing Offense as well:
The Rushing Offense was greatly improved in 2021, but it’s still not Championship caliber.
The Rushing Offense averaged a respectable 176 Yards and ranked #54 in the land when measured against 130 D-1 Schools and that was a great improvement compared to 2020 when the Rushing Offense averaged just 92 Yards and ranked a dreadful #122.
And to what do we credit the improvement of the Rushing Offense?
Of course, the Offensive Line improved somewhat, but most of the credit goes to Kenneth Walker III who carried the torch.
KWIII performed above and beyond the call of duty. When KWIII was in the game, the Rushing Offense was generally able to keep opposing Defenses “off balance” trying to defend the run and/or pass. Of course, we all remember the first play of 2021 when KWIII opened the game against Northwestern with a 75 Yard Touchdown blast and subsequently posted 264 Yards rushing for the game
For the season, KWIII posted 1,636 net Yards, the most Rushing yardage of any Power 5 Running Back and he did it by posting the most Yards After Contact (YAC) of any running back in the country. Of course, YAC is not a “badge of honor” for the Offensive Line because it means KWIII was creating his own running lanes in the absence of dominant run blocking.
So, while there was great improvement in the Rushing Offense, it was basically the KWIII show, but KWIII is gone now. So, how do we measure the magnitude of losing KWIII?
When KWIII sat out the Peach Bowl, 5 different ball carriers (including QB and Tight End) managed just 56 Yards net rushing on 36 attempts or just 1.6 Yards per attempt.
And if we break it down further, we discover a bleaker picture inasmuch as 3 Running Back’s including Simmons, Collins and Joiner, posted just 45 Yards Rushing and Zero Rushing TD’s.
Meanwhile, Payton Thorne got precious little protection from his Offensive Line and suffered 30 Yards in “Tackles for Loss”.
Clearly, line blocking was problematic and there were no running lanes, so the Rushing Offense was unable to move the chains and that presents a dismal picture for 2022 unless Mel Tucker implements “fixes”…and fast.
MT must find more than a replacement for KWIII, rather he needs to retool his Offensive Line and Run Game, and that means the spotlight shines upon Chris Kapilovic who holds multiple job titles including “O-Line Coach,…Run Game Coordinator…and Assistant Head Football Coach”,
Is Chris Kapilovic up to the task of building a Championship caliber Rushing Offense?
Let’s hope so!
At the bottom line: Mel Tucker won’t find all the answers in the Transfer Portal
Spartan fans are numb to the fact that Spartan Football hasn’t won or shared a National Title since 1966 (more than half a century ago).
And since 1966, the Spartans have only finished in the Top 5 twice and that was 2013 and 2014 respectively.
In 2013, the Spartans compiled a record of 13-1, beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl and finished #3; and then 2014 the Spartans posted an 11-2 record, beat Baylor in the Cotton Bowl and finished #5.
There were a few other Top 10 finishes along the way as well, including Mark Dantonio finishing #6 in 2015; Nick Saban finishing #7 in 1999; and George Perles finishing #8 in 1987.
Of course this season, Mel Tucker will arguably earn a #10 finish at worst, but let’s count it up: six (6) Top 10 finishes in 55 years, but let’s be honest, there is no niche in the Trophy Case for “Top 10 finishes”.
And for a school such as Michigan State that won/or shared 6 National Titles in 15 years from 1951 to 1966 (6 National titles in just 15 years) it underscores that six Top 10 finishes, or just two Top 5 finishes in a half century is simply not good enough.
Can Mel Tucker find the players he needs to reach the promised land in the Transfer Portal?
There are many who think the Transfer Portal is “a secret weapon” or a “target rich recruiting tool” but I see it differently.
Of course, MT had the good fortune of finding Kenneth Walker III, the Wake Forest Running Back in the Transfer Portal but that was tantamount to winning the lottery.
After all, what was the probability of KWIII having a 1600 Yard, Heisman Trophy break out season after a modest career at WF whereby he compiled just 579 net Yards rushing in 2019, and an identical 579 net Yards rushing in 2020 as well?
KWIII was not exactly a “can’t miss” prospect, rather he was a “diamond in the rough”, yet to his credit, MT polished KWIII into a Heisman Trophy candidate.
But what about the other 17 players acquired via the Transfer Portal…9 of whom failed to earn a start?
Remember Anthony Russo the QB from Temple who failed to distinguish himself? How about Harold Joiner the Running Back from Auburn who failed to earn a start? And how about Itayvion Brown the LB from Minnesota who only appeared in 6 games without a start?
From another perspective, not a single player acquired via the Transfer Portal (other than KWIII) started every regular season game.
There were some good players acquired via the Transfer Portal, serviceable players…but other than KWIII, there were no game changers and no difference makers. Perhaps we could give a nod to Chester Kimbrough or Ronald Williams each of whom got 10 starts as D-Backs, but you won’t find their names as All America candidates.
So, KWIII is gone, the Pass Defense is broken and the Spartans need help on their Offensive Line, but what is the likelihood of solving those problems via the Transfer Portal?
The Transfer Portal is simply a recruiting tool, it has value but there is no magic because the Transfer Portal is just one tool that requires the same scouting deftness as recruiting high schools players.
Will MT strike it rich by finding All America candidates in the Transfer Portal and in turn build a National Champion? That plan would be unprecedented, but Mel Tucker needs to find a way.
After all, it’s been 55 years and a National Championship is long overdue.
Let’s hope MT finds a way and strikes it rich!
Thank you for reading.
