Today is a big day for the Spartans, not because a victory is uncertain, but because the Spartans will be seeking positive measurables vs a very solid MAC team.
The Spartans will arguably post a victory vs Western Michigan and that will be due in part because the Spartans deploy 3 Championship caliber units including their Defense, Punting and Field Goal units and each is contributing at an Elite level.
At issue: will the Spartans Offense start to contribute at a Championship level as well? Today is the day for the Offense to demonstrate they are at least capable of contributing in part to the Spartans championship aspirations.
Western Michigan has a solid program with gifted athletes, and they play at a high level in the MAC, a conference I consider to be just a half step below the Big Ten, yet the Spartans are favored by 16 points or so. For a Ball Control team like the Spartans, a 16 or 17 point margin is about right.
While WMU beat Monmouth last Saturday 48-13, we need to take a look at Monmouth. For the record, Monmouth is a tiny school located in West Long Branch, New Jersey with a student body of slightly more than 6000 students. Monmouth ply their trade in the Big South Conference of the Football Championship Series (FCS).
Monmouth posted a record of 8-3 last season with victories vs schools such as Hampton, Lafayette, and Presbyterian, while posting losses to schools such as Eastern Michigan and Princeton.
Give WMU credit for grabbing a victory, but Monmouth was essentially a preseason scrimmage for the Broncos. Nevertheless, WMU Defense yielded 194 Yards Passing and 128 Yards Rushing to tiny Monmouth. I cite those stats because as we all know, the Spartans posted just 108 Yards Rushing vs Tulsa, including just 68 Yards Rushing by Spartan Running Backs. So, it would be fair to say the Spartans need to post a minimum of 150 Yards Rushing vs Western Michigan to exceed the yardage posted by tiny Monmouth, as well as a statement that the Spartan Offense has made at least minor “fixes” to their Offense.
All is not bad with the Spartans Offense, and it’s worth noting while the Offense struggled with consistency vs Tulsa, nevertheless the Offense posted Zero Turnovers, while the Defense got 3 takeaways, including an Interception and two Fumbles for +3 Turnover Margin. By any measure, Zero Turnovers and +3 Turnover Margin goes a long way toward winning football games at any level.
We can expect the Spartan Defense to continue their Championship ways and yield less than 100 Yards Rushing…less than 200 Yards Passing…and yield less than 20 Points. I trust the Punting unit will continue to preserve Field Position with an average of 45 Yards plus per punt, while the Field Goal unit should arguably convert 100% of FG attempts within a 40 Yard range.
What measurables should we expect from the Spartan Offense?
Here are some minimums to track…
Offense:
- 200 Yards Passing
- 150 Yards Rushing
- Zero Turnovers
If the Spartans achieve those modest minimums, then they will put another victory in the can and get ready for Arizona State.
Michigan alert:
Michigan will host Army today, and the team from AA will arguably have their proverbial hands full with the highly disciplined and superbly conditioned Cadets.
Last season, Army posted a record of 11-2, and narrowly lost to #4 Oklahoma 21-28 OT in spite of rolling up and “eye glazing” 339 Yards Rushing vs the Sooners. Army also walloped Houston 70-14 to close the season in the Armed Forces Bowl. So, anyone who thinks Army is a novelty is sadly mistaken.
Army averaged nearly 320 Yards Rushing per game last season (#2 amongst 129 D-1 Schools), and they return virtually 100% of their players.
In terms of Offensive efficiency, Army converted 57% of 3rd Down opportunities, and 86% of 4th Down opportunities both of which ranked #1 amongst 129 D-1 Schools. And don’t think that 4th Down conversions are a novelty for Army either: Army considers 4th Down just another down and another opportunity to move the chains. Last season, Army attempted 36, 4th Down opportunities and converted 31, including 4 of 5 vs #4 Oklahoma.
And if you are wondering about Army’s Defense, well they ranked #8 in the land last season, yielding just 295 Yards per game, inclusive of 189 Yards Passing and a meager 107 Yards Passing. For measurables, Army yielded just 355 Yards to Oklahoma last season, and Oklahoma lead the county as the #1 Offense in the land, posting an average of 570 Yards per game. So, Army held Oklahoma to more than 200 Yards below their season average of 570 Yards per game. That was no accident.
Wait until Michigan’s “speed in space” Offense tries to find space against the highly disciplined Cadets.
Army is real…and I can assure you than Michigan will be dazed and perplexed by Army’s triple Option Offense, and also perplexed by Army’s relentless pursuit and superb conditioning. Michigan’s only advantage will be home field Depth whereby they can deploy 70-ish players and hope to wear down the Cadets
