Mark Dantonio was abundantly aware of a troubling decline in the Rushing Offense since 2014 and so he rearranged his Offensive coaching staff.
In 2014, the Spartan Offense averaged a robust 235 Yards Rushing per game (#19 out of 129 D-1 schools…Top 15%) and the Spartans posted an impressive 11-2 season record including a 42-41 victory vs Baylor in the Cotton Bowl.
Yet, by 2018, the Spartan Offense averaged just 125 Yards Rushing per game (#114 out of 129 D-1 schools…bottom 12%) and the Spartans concluded the 2018 season with a dismal record of 7-6 including a 6-7 loss to Oregon in the Red Box Bowl. That’s an astounding decline of 110 Yards Rushing per game between 2014 and 2018.
And while the decline in Rushing Offense hasn’t been a straight line, it has been a general decline in Rushing productivity nevertheless. As mentioned, the Spartan Rushing Offense averaged a highly respectable 235 Yards Rushing in 2014, yet never exceeded 175 Yards Rushing thereafter, inasmuch as they fell to 151 Yards in 2015…averaged 173 Yards in 2016…168 Yards in 2017…and finally 125 Yards in 2018.
Rushing yardage is a “key” component to winning because it underscores an ability to control the Line of Scrimmage. Nevertheless the Offense as a whole must efficiently move the chains as well. In that regard, the Spartans converted 50% of 3rd Downs (2014)…49% (2015)…and 45% (2017) and that facilitated an impressive cumulative winning record of 33-7. Yet in 2016 and 2018, the Spartans Offense was not only unable to reach 175 Yard Rushing threshold, it was also unable to efficiently convert 3rd Downs, converting just 39% (2016) and 34% (2018) and the cumulative record in those two seasons was just 10 wins offset by 15 losses.
The correlation is clear: an inability to control the Line of Scrimmage means an inability to consistently run the football and/or convert 3rd Downs and that’s a losing combination and so the Offensive Coaching staff was rearranged.
An ominous start in 2019:
Now we come to 2019, but instead of improvement, the Spartan Offense posted arguably its worst start in decades.
The Offense posted a meager 108 Yards Rushing vs Tulsa (or just 68 Yards Rushing by Spartan Running Backs) and converted just 32% of 3rd Downs. As a friendly reminder, Tulsa fielded one of the worst Defenses in the land over the previous 4 seasons. In fact, Tulsa yielded an average of 233 Yards Rushing per game last season, including 241 Yards Rushing to Texas, and 312 Yards Rushing to Houston, and yet the Spartans managed just 108 Yards Rushing? Let that sink in.
Moreover, Tulsa’s 3 man front had the Spartan Offensive Line on its heels
The Spartans Offense committed 9 penalties for minus 69 Yards (-69), including 4 Offensive holding penalties (a result of getting beaten at the point of attack)…and 4 false starts (a result of getting beaten at the point of attack and trying to gain an advantage). The end result was momentum stopping penalties including a Touchdown nullified due to holding. In an curious statistic, penalty yardage assessed against the Offense exceeded yardage gained by Spartan Running Backs. Let that sink in too!
Instead of improvement since the Offensive staff was realigned, the Spartan Offense has regressed in dramatic fashion.
Of course, Mark Dantonio and the Spartan Coaching staff have the same stats I have, and so the Alarm bells should be ringing inside their headsets because not only has Offensive production been declining since 2014, but the anemic start to the 2019 season is shocking!.
At the bottom line:
Forget about a so called “new” offense, because Mark Dantonio’s DNA is ball control football, not showtime.
Mark Dantonio’s historic success has relied upon Ball Control which means controlling field position, managing the clock, relying upon an impenetrable Rushing Defense, effective punting to ensure optimum field position and mitigating momentum stopping penalties.
Yet, in 2019, Mark Dantonio’s biggest challenge is “fixing” the Offensive Line.
As we all know, a basic precept of football is “don’t beat yourself”…or said another way, let the other team beat themselves. In my opinion, the 2019 Offensive Line may not have an abundance of NFL talent, but they are more than competent. Yet, they are losing leverage at the point of attack which is usually due to poor technique and/or being out of position. Is that coaching? I’ll let you be the judge.
Offensive Line problems have been compounded by a lack discipline (9 penalties in the first game alone for minus 69 Yards). That’s a huge problem because that falls into the category of “beating oneself”. I won’t offer solutions, I’ll leave that to the coaches, because the Offensive Line is arguably one of the most difficult position groups to coach given the choreography required to ensure that 5 Linemen move as one.
The Offensive Coaching staff must find operational fixes…and Fast!
Given what we saw in the opening game, I don’t have high hopes the choreography along the Offensive Line can be totally fixed in the short term, so the goal of the Offense should be to achieve a minimum measure of efficiency by way of controlling the clock while mitigating penalties and turnovers and let the other units save the day.
The Spartans will arguably need to rely (as they have in the past) upon their Defense to minimize opponent scoring (20 points or less), efficient Punting to ensure optimum Field position, and Field Goal unit to put points on the scoreboard when the Offense stalls. All of that is doable.
So, the goal against Western Michigan, in my opinion, should be modest Offensive improvement, which I will cite as 150 Yards Rushing while converting at least 40% of 3rd Down opportunities. There is no sense dissecting Western Michigan or searching for Spartan advantages, because at the moment, the Spartans simply need to control what they can control and let the results take care of itself.
