Are you familiar with BCR?
Those initials stand for “Blue Chip Ratio”, and BCR is the ratio of 4&5 Star players recruited by a football team compared to 2&3 Star players.
And are you familiar with Bud Elliott?
Bud Elliott is a nationally recognized writer for “24/7 Sports” and 24/7 and its Recruiting Composite is “the authority” as it relates to college recruiting. So, if a college football coach tells you he doesn’t care about 24/7 or their recruiting rankings, then check his pulse because every coach, and every AD (at least every championship coach and every championship AD) have 24/7 on their “quick links”.
At any measure, Bud Elliott just published a Blue Chip Ratio report that is “statistical” music to my ears. In brief, Bud Elliott argues that if a team is not on the “north side” of 50% as it relates to recruiting 4&5 Star players vs 2 & 3 Star players over 4 consecutive recruiting cycles, then their chances of competing for a National Championship are nil and void.
Elliott makes the point that 4 consistent recruiting cycles are “key” to building a championship contender, or said another way, one great recruiting cycle offset by 2 or 3 substandard recruiting cycles won’t translate to championships, so there must be recruiting consistency over time to win championships.
With that as a backdrop, let’s take a look at 16 teams Bud Elliott believes have a chance to compete for a National Title in 2021, because each has compiled a cumulative Blue Chip Ratio of 50% or better over the past 4 recruiting campaigns (2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021).
2021 BCR data as published by Bud Elliott:
For the most part, there are no surprises within the preceding chart because it represents every National Championship team since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014, but let’s put the percentages into perspective.
For example, Alabama which posted CFP National Championships after the 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020 regular seasons, has compiled an astounding BCR of 84% over the previous 4 recruiting campaigns. If we look closer, Alabama recruited 27 players in 2021, of which an eye glazing 23 of their recruits were ranked 4 or 5 Stars (or 84% BCR). What is the translation? 3-Star players are unlikely to “make the grade” at Alabama.
Meanwhile Clemson which posted CFP National Championships after the 2015 and 2017 regular seasons, compiled a BCR of 67% over the past 4 recruiting campaigns. However, looking closer, Clemson recruited 19 players in 2021 of which 17 were 4 or 5 Stars (or 89% BCR).
LSU which posted a CFP National Championship after the 2019 regular season, has compiled a BCR of 66% over the past 4 recruiting campaigns, yet if we look closer, LSU recruited 23 players in 2021 of which 18 were 4 or 5 Star players (or 78% BCR).
So, the Blue Chip Ratio is a viable predictor of on field success.
Are you curious about the Spartans BCR?
Over the past 4 recruiting campaigns, the Spartans have recruited 82 players of which only six (6) were 4 or 5 Star players and that rendered a BCR of 7%.
So, let’s compare the “Blue Chip Ratio” of Alabama, Clemson, LSU and Michigan State over the past 4 recruiting campaigns in Bullet Point format:
- Alabama 84%
- Clemson 67%
- LSU 66%
- Michigan State 7%
Let’s look closer at the Spartans last 4 recruiting cycles:
- In 2021, the Spartans recruited 19 players including one (1) 4 Star player (or 0.05% BCR)
- In 2020, the Spartans recruited 22 players but did not recruit a single 4 or 5 Star player and you don’t need me to compute that percentage.
- In 2019, the Spartans recruited 19 players including two (2) 4-Star players (or 0.10% BCR)
- In 2018, the Spartans recruited 22 players including three (3) 4-Star players (or 0.13% BCR)
In summary, the Spartans “Blue Chip Ratio” over the past 4 recruiting cycles is a miserable 7% so it’s no surprise the fortunes of Spartan football have been flagging because there is a dearth of Playmakers/Game Changers: in total, just six (6) 4-Star players and zero 5-Star players have been added to the roster over the past 4 recruiting cycles!
Of course, due to the fact Mel Tucker was hired in February 2020 (essentially the onset of COVID 19), he has limited accountability for an unremarkable 2021 recruiting class that earned a dismal Blue Chip Ratio of 0.05%. Yet, Mel Tucker has full accountability for losing 27 players via the Transfer Portal since last November. In turn, Mel Tucker acquired 18 players via the Transfer Portal including just two (2) 4-Star players, one D-II player, one D-III player and a preferred Walk-On, so Mel Tucker dabbling in the Transfer Portal in 2021 has rendered a dismal Blue Chip Ratio of 0.11%.
So, what did Mel Tucker gain thru the Transfer Portal? Essentially, Mel Tucker shuffled the deck. In fact, he swapped 27 players who enjoyed campus familiarity for 18 players who need a campus map to find Spartan Stadium.
In addition, we need to be mindful that Mel Tucker was Head Football Coach at Colorado in 2019 whereby he recruited 26 players but he only landed one (1) 4-Star player (0.04% BCR). And as it relates to 2022 recruiting cycle which is currently in progress, Mel Tucker has only garnered verbal commitments from 6 players, yet zero 4 or 5 Star players (0.00% BCR).
So, for all of Mel Tucker’s dictate about “changing the culture” at Michigan State, and “getting our kind of guys”, I ask what is he achieving, because he has had virtually zero success recruiting Blue Chip players and that fact is underscored by his substandard Blue Chip Ratio.
At the bottom line:
Bud Elliott is an unbiased, national writer whose Blue Chip Ratio reporting is intended to identify the schools which are “winning” the recruiting battles from the schools which are getting left behind, and his short list of schools that are getting left behind include (but not limited to) Baylor, Michigan State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, TCU and Utah, and Elliott specifically addresses those schools in his article.
I know some readers think that I am “unfair” to Mel Tucker, but my allegiance is to Michigan State University and a pursuit of National Championships which have been conspicuously missing since 1965 and 1966. So, I am beholden to analyzing the facts, and the facts tell me Spartan football needs to reset its compass and correct course, and that means the accountability dial is pointed directly at Mel Tucker and Bill Beekman.
Let’s keep in mind, if recruiting rankings were available during the 1950’s & 1960’s, whereby Michigan State won or shared 6 national titles in 15 years, then I would argue the Spartans BCR at the time would have landed somewhere between 75% and 80% (championship caliber by any measure). Mel Tucker needs to dust off the Spartan Football history books and replicate the recruiting culture of Biggie Munn and Duffy Daugherty.
At any measure, I have included a link to Bud Elliott’s article below.
It should be noted, Bud Elliott makes a valid point that exceeding 50% BCR is no guarantee of winning Championships (and Jim Harbaugh and Michigan are prime examples). If a school achieves a BCR above 50% it simply gets that school into the championship conversation, yet Elliott conversely points out that to fall short of 50% BCR is a guarantee of “not competing for championships at all”. Sadly, the Spartans aren’t in the conversation.
Let us also point out, there is a flawed premise that suggests Mel Tucker can “coach up” a cadre of 3 Star players and compete for Big Ten and National Championships, but that’s fool’s gold. In two years as a Head Football Coach, Mel Tucker has yet to post a winning season, in fact he has posted an cumulative upside/down record of 7-12, so Mel Tucker’s first order of business is proving to Spartan stakeholders that he has the wherewithal to post a winning season.
So I argue, Spartan fans and stakeholders must decide if they want “participation trophies” or Championships?
If Spartan stakeholders want to compete for Championships, then they need to “let their voices be heard” and let the Head Football Coach and AD understand that a roster built around 3 Stars, D-II and D-III players doesn’t pass championship muster, and that means the Head Football Coach and AD need to step up their recruiting game.
Keep in mind, the Spartans lost 40 players from last season including 27 via Transfer Portal, 3 to the NFL and at least 10 due to normal attrition. In return, the Spartans have acquired 37 players (18 via the Transfer Portal and 19 via conventional recruiting). The turnover of nearly 80 players in less than 6 months, with virtually zero Blue Chip recruits added to the roster, is deemed by most analysts to be “a recipe” for disaster.
I hope you find Bud Elliott’s article to be informative. It’s a bit technical in parts, but his main point is clear: If a team is unable to recruit at least 50% Blue Chip players over a 4 year recruiting cycle, then participation trophies are imminent and Championship Titles will simply be a fleeting fantasy.
The onus falls upon Mel Tucker and Bill Beekman: can they correct course?
Thank you for reading!
