No coach on Michigan State’s newly formed coaching staff has a bigger job than Chris Kapilovic.
Of course, Chris Kapilovic was hired by Mel Tucker to be Michigan State’s Offensive Line Coach and “Run Game Coordinator”, and that means Chris Kapilovic will have the biggest and most challenging job of anyone on staff: the stats tell the painful story of what is needed,
After all, Michigan State Football has been plagued by dismal Offensive production over the past 5 years, dropping from Championship caliber #11 in 2014…yet in successive seasons dropping to #73 in 2015…#75 in 2016…then to #91 in 2017…to #116 in 2018…and rebounding slightly to #95 in 2019 (assuming we can call that a rebound).
But most problematically, the Spartans Rushing Offense declined to absolutely abysmal levels, dropping from Championship caliber 235 Yards in 2014…then 151 Yards in 2015…173 Yards in 2016…168 Yards in 2017…125 Yards in 2018…and 127 Yards in 2019, and in that context, the Spartans Rushing Offense earned dubious national rankings of #114 in 2018 and #113 in 2019 (and that’s the bottom 15 percentile of 130 D-1 Schools).
The decline in Rushing Yardage from 235 Yards per game in 2014, to just 127 Yards per game in 2019 notes a decline from elite to dismal, and Rushing yardage declined by more than 100 Yards per game.
From another perspective, when measured in 9 games against Big Ten competition, the Spartans Rushing Offense ranked #12 (out of 14) in 2019…and ranked “dead last” in 2018. Frankly, it’s hard to conceive the Spartans posted 7 wins in each of the last two seasons while deploying one of the most dysfunctional Rushing Offenses in the land.
Now comes Chris Kapilovic to fix the running game:
Chris Kapilovic is 51 and he has coached football since 2001.
Kapilovic was born in Clevelend, Ohio and found his way to Missouri State (formerly Southwest Missouri State) where he was an Offensive Lineman in 1989 and 1990. During his time as a player, Missouri State posted a record of 12-1 in 1989 to win the Gateway Conference Championship, and then compiled a record of 8-3 in 1990 to become co-Champions. The Gateway Conference is now known as the Missouri Valley Football Conference.
As a highlight, Missouri State competed in the Football Championship Series (FCS) playoffs in both 1989 and 1990 (formerly known as NCAA 1AA Football Championship); they lost in the Quarterfinals in 1989 to Stephen F. Austin, and then lost to Idaho in the first round in 1990. Yet, Kapilovic had Championship experience as an Offensive Lineman.
Then Kapilovic started coaching football in 2001 just shy of his 33rd Birthday, so seemingly Kapilovic embarked upon another career between 1990 and 2001 before he commenced coaching football.
Nevertheless, once Kapilovic commenced his coaching career, he coached 5 years at Alabama State from 2001 to 2005 and Alabama State (an FCS school) won a Southwest Athletic Conference Title in 2004. Kapilovic also coached 2 years at Missouri State, his Alma Mater in 2006 & 2007 but during his tenure, Missouri State compiled an upside down record of 8-14.
Thereafter, Kapilovic became an Offensive Line Coach and “Run Game Coordinator” on Larry Fedora’s staff for 11 years from 2008 to 2018, including stints at Southern Mississippi from 2008 to 2011, and then at University of North Carolina from 2012 to 2018.
Let’s take a look…
At Southern Mississippi, Fedora and his staff (including Chris Kapilovic), compiled a respectable record of 34-19 overall including 20-12 in Conference USA highlighted by a Conference USA Title in 2011 (Conference USA is a Group of 5 football conference).
Then Larry Fedora took the reins as Head Football Coach at North Carolina from 2012 to 2018: UNC is a member of the ACC, a Power 5 conference and once again, Chris Kapilovic was Offensive Line Coach and “Run Game Coordinator”. During their tenure at North Carolina, Fedora and his staff compiled an overall record of 45-43 (a tick above .500) including an overall ACC record of 28-28 (.500).
Fedora and his staff posted 4 winning seasons at North Carolina offset by 3 losing seasons. Their tenure included a “high water” mark of 11-3 in 2015 including an ACC (Coastal Division) Title, but that was offset by a “low water” mark of 2-9 in 2018. They also posted an upside down record of 1-3 in Bowl Games.
In fact, Fedora and his staff struggled mightily in their final two seasons, posting an overall record of 5-18, including an dismal ACC record of 2-18 and no Bowl appearances. With that as a backdrop, Fedora and his entire coaching staff, including Chris Kapilovic were fired one day after the final game of 2018.
Then Chris Kapilovic joined Mel Tucker at Colorado for just one season and they posted a record of 5-7.
So, as we try to project Chris Kapilovic impact as Offensive Line Coach and Run Game Coordinator at Michigan State, the Rushing stats posted at UNC from 2012 to 2018 as well as the Rushing stats posted at Colorado in 2019 will be instructive. Although Kapilovic has coached football since 2001, nevertheless 11 of those seasons were at FCS Schools or non-Power 5 Schools, so to ensure we compare “apples with apples”, and “oranges with oranges”, we will focus upon Kapilovic tenure over the last 8 seasons at Power 5 schools including North Carolina and Colorado to see if we can draw some reasonable conclusions
But first, let’s check the competitive Power 5 landscape.
200 Yard Rushing Club:
If a team wants to “consistently” compete for Division Titles, Conference Titles and consistently get invited to the College Football Playoffs, then the “200 Yard Rushing Club” isn’t an arbitrary wish, rather it’s a “must have”…a “minimum threshold”.
And let me be clear, when I say minimum, I am saying that 200 Yards Rushing usually gets a team into Championship contention. A team that averages 200 Yards Rushing per game is “usually” capable of controlling the Line of Scrimmage, controlling the clock, and moving the chains with consistency against most teams but it doesn’t guarantee anything. The 200 Yard Rushing Club is simply the first step toward controlling the Line of Scrimmage and that’s the first step toward winning Championships.
And here are some stats to support the value of 200 Yards Rushing per game, starting with the Big Ten: Wisconsin won the Big Ten West last season and averaged 233 Yards Rushing at 5.4 Yards per attempt. Meanwhile Ohio State won the Big Ten East and averaged 267 Yards Rushing at 5.6 Yards per attempt.
In fact, Wisconsin has exceeded 200 Yards Rushing each season since 2011, with a “high water” mark of 320 Yards Rushing in 2014, and moreover, since 2011, Wisconsin has appeared in 6 of 9 Big Ten Championship games, the most of any school in the Big Ten.
Further to that point, immediately below is a list of Power 5 Conference Champions in 2019, all of which are members of the “200 Yard Rushing Club”, listed from high to low:
- Ohio State (Big Ten East) averaged 267 Yards Rushing per game at 5.6 Yards per
- Georgia (SEC East) averaged 242 Yards Rushing per game at 5.27 Yards per
- Clemson (ACC) averaged 240.4 Yards Rushing per game at 6.37 Yards per
- Oklahoma (Big 12) averaged 240.2 Yards Rushing at 5.95 Yards per
- Wisconsin (Big Ten West) averaged 233 Yards Rushing at 5.4 Yards per
- Utah (PAC 12 South) averaged 201 Yards per game at 4.77 Yards per
Virtually every Power 5 Conference Champion eclipsed 200 Yards Rushing per game with the rare exception of LSU and Oregon.
Of course, LSU was a total anomaly: although LSU averaged 167 Yards Rushing per game in 2019 which only ranked #60 in the land, yet everyone who is casually familiar with College Football is abundantly aware that LSU enjoyed the benefit of a dynamic Passing Offense in 2019 that averaged 437 Yards Passing per game at 11 Yards per attempt…(14 Yards per completion)…while completing an “eye glazing” 75% of their passes. With that as a backdrop, LSU averaged an incredible 570 Yards per game and posted an unbeaten record of 15-0 on their way to a National Title.
So, the LSU model is clear: if a team is unable to run for 200 Yards or more per game (for whatever reason), then they better be capable of throwing for 400 Yards or more per game if they hope to win conference and National Championships, and of course LSU did exactly that.
So, that brings us back to Chris Kapilovic:
The challenge of rebuilding the Spartans Rushing Offense is clear, but can Chris Kapilovic reestablish a Championship caliber Rushing Offense at Michigan State?
Let’s take a look at the Rushing stats posted by Chris Kapilovic at North Carolina from 2012 to 2018 as well as Colorado in 2019 (National Ranking of Rushing Offense is identified in parenthesis):
- 2012…194* Yards per game (#50* estimated)
- 2013…148 Yards per game (#84)
- 2014…151 Yards per game (#81)
- 2015…224 Yards per game (#18)
- 2016…145 Yards per game (#100)
- 2017…144 Yards per game (#89)
- 2018…193 Yards per game (#44)
- 2019…150 Yards per game (#79)
*NCAA stats prior to 2013 are itemized in what the NCAA refers to as “old system” which means the statistical rankings are less defined than a newer system commencing in 2013. In that regard, I gathered the best data available and the Rushing stats for 2012 are presented with 98% degree of confidence, nevertheless the National Ranking was not specified, so I extrapolated the data and estimated the National Ranking to be #50.
So, what do we take away from the preceding stats?
Chris Kapilovic as Offensive Line Coach and “Run Game Coordinator” at North Carolina averaged 224 Yards Rushing in 2015 (#18 in the land) and that paved the way for an ACC Coastal Division title. Kapilovic also posted solid Rushing totals in 2012 and 2018 averaging 193 Yards per game and UNC earned a Co-Coastal Division Championship in 2012 as well. Yet, in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019 Kapilovic and his Rushing Offense averaged less than 150 Yards Rushing per game and conference Championships were conspicuously missing.
I won’t pass judgement on whether Chris Kapilovic is capable of building a Championship Rushing Offense at Michigan State or not, but he has a tall task ahead.
At the bottom line:
The challenge is clear and the implications are clear: if the Spartans hope to consistently compete for Division Titles, Conference Titles and earn invitations to the College Football Playoff, then they must arrive at a level whereby they consistently pound out 200 Yards Rushing per game as a measure of controlling the Line of Scrimmage and achieving a balance between Running and Passing.
Problematically, Chris Kapilovic inherits a Spartan Rushing Offense that has averaged just 149 Yards per game since 2015, conspicuously shy of the 200 Yard Rushing threshold. So, is Chris Kapilovic the man to correct course?
Perhaps, but we need to be mindful that Chris Kapilovic has only posted one season in Power 5 Football whereby he has eclipsed 200 Yards Rushing and in 3 of the past 5 seasons Chris Kapilovic hasn’t exceeded 150 Yards Rushing either, so he has a tall ladder to climb.
The challenge is clear and Chris Kapilovic has his work cut out, yet he has the title: he is “Run Game Coordinator”, he has the authority, and he will enjoy virtually total oversight as it relates to recruiting and coaching the Offensive Line.
He will also enjoy advantages at Michigan State that he didn’t enjoy at either North Carolina or Colorado, inasmuch as the Spartans are renowned for running the football in a run oriented conference, and it will arguably be easier to recruit “top tier” Offensive Linemen to Michigan State, an historically “power oriented” Big Ten football program than either North Carolina or Colorado.
As another benefit, recruits are seeking Championship opportunities and in that context the Spartans have posted 4 Division Titles, 3 Big Ten Titles and a trip to the College Football Playoffs since 2010.
And as it relates to getting a “jump start”, Kapilovic inherits 10 Offensive Linemen who earned at least one start in 2019, so the pantry isn’t bare, yet Kapilovic needs to mold that talent into Championship caliber that can consistently pave the way for 200 Yards Rushing, because as cited earlier, 200 Yards Rushing isn’t any arbitrary wish, rather it is a vital step toward controlling the Line of Scrimmage and winning championships, and that’s the bar that has been set for Chris Kapilovic.
Let’s hope Chris Kapilovic is able to establish a 2020 version of “Pound Green-Pound” and if he consistently delivers 200 Yards Rushing per game, then Championships will follow!
We’ll look at Jay Johnson the Spartans new Offensive Coordinator in my next Blog.
