I have profound respect for Mark Dantonio and he will always have a slice of immortality as “the winning-est football coach in Michigan State history”.
Yet, Spartan Football has declined measurably since 2015 compiling an upside down Big Ten record of just 15 wins & 19 losses. So Mark Dantonio’s statement that he plans to be back next year because he wants to “complete the circle”, while admirable, it raises a profound philosophical question: what changes must Mark Dantonio execute to “complete the circle” and fulfill, his unfulfilled dreams?
When Mark Dantonio started at Cincinnati nearly 20 years ago, he had a grand plan: he built a staff in his own likeness, and together they climbed a mighty mountain. For the most part, that staff is still intact. It’s not by accident that Mark Dantonio found success, because there is value in staff continuity. I have always defined the value of organizational continuity in simple terms: continuity begets efficiency, and efficiency begets consistency, and consistency leads to success.
In the case of Mark Dantonio and his staff, continuity has facilitated 3 Big Ten Championship, 5 Bowl victories and a trip to the College Football Playoff…but the landscape has changed.
At some point, continuity falls behind the curve:
The landscape of college football has changed and it continues to change at lightning speed: today, college football is an “arms race”.
A college football mantra that once promised “our Defense will keep us in the game until our Offense scores enough points” is obsolete. The old mantra has been replaced with a new mantra that promises “our high octane offense will outscore your Defense, regardless”.
It’s interesting to note, the Top 5 Offenses in the land all average more than 45 points per game, and from number 5 to number 1, the names of those teams are the same names we see at the top of the weekly football polls: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU and Ohio State. You have to scroll down the list to #110 to find the Spartans Offense.
To put the Spartans situation into perspective, Ohio State averages 52 Points per game, 30 points more than the Spartans. Think about that? Ohio State is averaging 52 Points per game, while the Spartans are averaging 22 Points per game. Shockingly there is a 30 point scoring differential between Ohio State and Michigan State.
Keep in mind, while Michigan State’s Offense has changed minimally since 2007, Ohio State has continuously fine-tuned their product. Since 2010, Ohio State has transitioned through 3 highly successful coaching administrations: from Jim Tressel to Urban Meyer, and now Ryan Day. And each administration is better than the last. Tressel and Meyer each won National Titles while Ryan Day is in the National Title hunt in just his first season as Head Coach.
Ohio State has morphed from a methodical ball control offense under Jim Tressel, into a “high octane” offense under Urban Meyer, and now it’s running on Jet Fuel under the guidance of Ryan Day. While Jim Tressel was incredibly successful at Ohio State from 2001 to 2010, his product would be virtually unrecognizable in Columbus today.
The Spartans are falling behind in the Arms Race:
While the Spartans Offense is averaging just 22 Points per game, on the other side of the Line of Scrimmage, the Spartans Defense is yielding an average of nearly 26 Points per game: that’s an upside down ratio, a losing ratio.
So there should be no shock that the Spartans have posted an upside down record of just 2 wins and 5 losses in Big Ten competition this season. But even more problematically, the Spartans have posted an upside down Big Ten record of 15-19 since the start of the 2016 season.
After earning an invitation to the College Football Playoffs in 2015, the goals of Spartans Football have diminished to levels unthought of just 4 years ago. Now, the Spartans are simply hoping to become Bowl eligible, but that’s exactly where the Spartans started in 2007, isn’t it?.
If the Spartans beat both Rutgers and Maryland in the final two regular season games, it would culminate in a Big Ten record of just 4 wins-and 5 losses.
So, if Michigan State hopes to compete in the “arms race” and not get left behind, and if they hope to rally donors, and if they hope to bring 75,000 fans consistently to Spartan Stadium, then fixing Spartan Football will become a dramatic philosophical makeover, from Ball Control to High Octane.
Yet, at 63 years of age will Mark Dantonio have the energy and the appetite to implement a total makeover?
What are the goals?
Once again, Mark Dantonio told us on Tuesday that he doesn’t intend to step down, which is both noble and admirable, but if Mark Dantonio continues at Michigan State, then what are the expectations? What are the goals?
By every measure, the minimum threshold for Spartan Football should be a base line of 8 wins and 4 losses overall, including a minimum of 5 wins and 4 losses in Big Ten competition. Which means anything above that threshold passes muster, while any record below that threshold would be considered substandard.
Every program in the country implement a grading scale for every facet of the game, up to an including a grading scale for wins & losses. If I were grading wins & losses, then 12 wins earns an “A; 10 wins earns a “B”; and 8 wins earns a “C”; meanwhile 7 wins or below would not pass muster. Of course, this is a simplistic grading scale for the purpose of this narrative only.
Yet, by the preceding grading scale, the Spartans have only earned a passing grade in just 1 season since 2015. So, if Mark Dantonio returns next season, what are the expectations? Can he achieve a minimum passing grade of 8 wins & 4 losses given that he must deploy an inexperienced Quarterback, an inexperienced Offensive Line, and essentially implement a complete makeover of his Defensive unit?
And if the overall goal is competing for Championships, then how likely is it the Spartans will contend for a Big Ten Championship in the next two years? Three years? Four years? Five years? What will it take for the Spartans to contend?
When we consider that Ohio State has transitioned through 3 coaching administrations just since 2010, it is clear that a total makeover of Spartan Football is needed to keep pace in the Arms Race, but at 63 does Mark Dantonio have an appetite to execute the necessary changes?
At the bottom line:
Mark Dantonio is a hero at Michigan State for what he accomplished from 2007 to 2015.
But 50,000 students, 500,000 alumni as well as Spartan fans around the world have expectations, and they want to be proud of Spartan Football, but there is a sense Spartan Football is falling behind in the “Arms Race”.
I trust Mark Dantonio will meet with the AD and President at the end of the season for a formal review of football operations, but what advice will the AD and President impart to help Mark Dantonio improve the product and “complete the circle”? After all, with respect to the impeccable academic credentials of both the President and the AD, there is nothing in their respective resumes to suggest they have the expertise and wherewithal to oversee such a review of football operations.
So, if the AD and the President don’t have the experience and wherewithal to oversee a formal review of football operations, then what?
Without a strategic, philosophical and tactical makeover, Spartan Football will continue to fall behind in the Arms Race and the likelihood that Spartan Football will compete for a Big Ten Championship in the next 3 years is exceedingly dim. So, if the goal of competing for a Big Ten Championship isn’t realized in the near term, or worse, if Spartan Football continues to regress, then the fan base will morph from supportive to exceedingly angry.
So, here is a thought…
Perhaps it makes sense for Mark Dantonio to contemplate a 1 year exit strategy, and thereby announce that he will step down at the end of the 2020 season!
An exit strategy would enable Mark Dantonio to exit with dignity…and on his own terms. It would also enable Spartan Football to implement a seamless and coherent succession plan for the first time since “Biggie” Munn passed the baton to “Duffy” Daugherty, more than 65 years ago.
After all, there never is a good time to depart an organization, yet assuredly it is best to leave with one’s dignity intact.
A 1 year exit strategy would provide Mark Dantonio an opportunity to say proper good byes to fans and alumni. It would be an opportunity to say: “…we have given our all: 3 Big Ten Titles, 5 Bowl Victories…a Rose Bowl, and a trip to the College Football Playoff”.
An exit strategy would enable Mark Dantonio to say to the Michigan State community and the coaching fraternity in general that “…we are leaving the organization in a better place than we found it, yet it’s time to pass the baton”.
An exit strategy would enable Mark Dantonio and his staff to exit with dignity and comfortably transition into the next phase of their lives.
Yet, if Mark Dantonio and the Athletic Administration opt for a longer term, then exiting the program with dignity may not be an option if a remarkable turnaround isn’t achieved commencing next season.
After all, it’s always best to leave with the crowd asking for more!
