Change is in the air…
Mark Dantonio inherited a wobbly team from John L Smith that compiled an upside down record of 14-21 (40%) in Smith’s final 3 seasons, yet in his first season, Mark Dantonio compiled a record of 7-6 including a Bowl Trip and then went on to become the winningest coach in Michigan State history.
In February, Mel Tucker inherited a team from Mark Dantonio that compiled a solid record of 24-15 (62%) in Dantonio’s final 3 seasons including 2 Bowl victories, yet in his first season, Mel Tucker compiled an upside down record of 2-5 (.285) including a 13th place finish in the Big Ten…and so, Mel Tucker decided to clean house.
Fair enough…
Mel Tucker is Head Football Coach and he is entitled to clean house, but what is his plan? How does Mel Tucker intend to correct course and build a championship caliber football team?
Of course, Mel Tucker said repeatedly upon arriving at Michigan State that he intended to “change the culture” but what does that mean? He didn’t say “upgrade the player personnel” or “change the system”, he said “change the culture” which implies there were roster problems of misfits and malcontents. However, if that was the case, it was a closely guarded secret.
At any measure, I trust we contemplated that “changing the culture” meant an orderly transition of player personnel by way of systematic attrition, yet I don’t think anyone contemplated a colossal evacuation of player assets.
After all, an “eye glazing” 13 players formerly recruited by Mark Dantonio have decided (or were encouraged) to ply their trade elsewhere vis a vis the so called “Transfer Portal” in the past week or so.
By position group, the departing players include: 1 QB, 1 Long Snapper, 1 Offensive Linemen, 1 Corner Back/Wide Receiver, 1 H-Back, 2 Running Backs, 2 Cornerbacks and 4 Linebackers. If you are counting “Stars assigned by Recruiting Services”, then the departing players include one (1) walk on; ten (10) “3-Stars”; and two (2) “4-Stars”. (Note: Stars are assigned by Recruiting Services from 1 to 5, with “5-Stars” being best).
An unofficial interpretation of the 5 Star ranking system suggests that “unranked or 1-Star players” could be considered apprentices whose likelihood of success at Power 5 schools is uncertain; or 2&3 Star players could be considered journeyman players that become the cement that hold a program together; while 4& 5 Star players are generally considered to be the playmakers, the game breakers, the game changers.
There are always surprises, such as “walk-ons” that become game changing playmakers, or 4 or 5 Star players that fail to live up to their 4/5 Star billing, nevertheless the ranking system is generally reliable. That’s because of metrics.
The Recruiting Services compile a dossier on virtually every High School player in America and thereby trace virtually every metric including physical attributes such as height, weight and speed, as well as game skills including Rushing yardage, Passing yardage, Receiving yardage, Sack’s, Tackles for Loss, etc, etc, etc. So, during the recruiting process, there are precious few mysteries regarding prospective recruits, including coachability.
Nevertheless, an astounding 13 players that were deemed worthy of playing and competing at Michigan State, have turned in their scholarships and it doesn’t appear anyone pleaded for them to stay.
So, what’s next?
The story of Julian Barnett and Devontae Dobbs:
To put a portion of this narrative into perspective, the Spartans have only recruited ten (10) “4 Star” players since 2017…or a meager average of just 2 per year.
So, not only are “4&5” Star players a precious commodity, but the Spartans struggle to get their fair share. In fact, just two 4-Star players were recruited in 2019 and they were Julian Barnett and Devontae Dobbs, yet the Spartans lost both Barnett and Dobbs into the Transfer Portal in the past week.
For his part, Julian Barnett (6’2” & 190#) was a multi-talented athlete and rated the #8 Cornerback in the country. Meanwhile, Devontae Dobbs (6’5” & 305#) was rated the #1 Offensive Guard prospect in the country. By any measure, being rated Top 10 in the country at a respective position is “heady” stuff. Interestingly, there were several Recruiting Services that rated Dobbs a “5-Star” prospect, and let’s make this clear, Offensive Linemen are rarely anointed with 5-Stars and yet Devontae Dobbs was given that ranking consideration.
At any measure, during the 2019 recruiting cycle, the Spartans competed for the services of Barnett and Dobbs against some of the top college football programs in the country including but not limited to Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The recruiting battle for Barnett & Dobbs was regarded as one of the most hotly contested recruiting battles of recent years highlighted by some of the best college football coaches in the country competing for two players from unbeaten Belleville (Michigan) which is just 80 miles down the road from East Lansing. It’s also noteworthy, that Belleville was unbeaten in one of the most competitive football conferences in Michigan, which meant Barnett & Dobbs were playing against some of the best High School teams, and some of the best players in the State of Michigan.
By most accounts, Barnett & Dobbs were judged to be “can’t miss” prospects.
To his credit, Mark Dantonio won the “recruiting sweepstakes” for Barnett & Dobbs, relying heavily upon Michigan State’s successful record from 2010 to 2015. Mark Dantonio also benefitted from his impeccable relationship with high school coaches not only in Michigan but throughout the Midwest, and of course, Mark Dantonio smartly leveraged the proximity card, given the fact Belleville is just a 90 minute drive from East Lansing.
To most high school prospects, playing college football in their backyard is on their list of considerations, especially when friends and family can attend on gameday. So proximity was a distinct advantage for the Spartans and conversely a distinct disadvantage for Alabama and Clemson, and to a lesser degree a disadvantage for Notre Dame and Ohio State!
Nevertheless, it still takes time for 4&5 Star players to find their way and fit into a “system”, especially Offensive Linemen. It would be fair to argue that developing Offensive Linemen is the most challenging position group because every Offensive Lineman is just one component of a 5 player choreography, whereby 5 players need to move as one to be successful.
Yet, both Barnett & Dobbs earned playing time as true freshmen. Barnett played in all 13 games as a Wide Receiver while earning 4 starts. On the other hand, Dobbs played in 4 games toward the end of the season, while earning one “start” at Left Tackle.
Of course, that was then, and this is now: Mark Dantonio departed, and Mel Tucker arrived, and 2020 was an entirely different story for Barnett & Dobbs.
Barnett, earned precious little playing time after he was switched from Wide Receiver to Cornerback, while Dobbs suffered the indignity of “not suiting” for a single game in 2020 on a team with one of the worst Rushing Offenses in the country! For the #1 player in the country at his position group, not dressing was an indignity of immense proportions.
Ay any measure, all the resources that were expended to recruit Barnett and Dobbs as well as 11 other players have been discarded like last Friday’s Christmas wrappings.
Needless to say, some attrition is expected every year, but the loss of 13 underclassmen transcends extraordinary. In pragmatic terms, it is a massive loss of administrative time, recruiting time, travel time, coaching time, tutoring, mentoring…and of course, it’s a financial loss of Room, Board, Books and Tuition, all of which have been summarily discarded.
So, did Barnett, Dobbs and 11 others arbitrarily leave the program or were they “encouraged” to leave?
Needless to say, we don’t know because we are not privy to that information, yet given the fact that Mel Tucker repeatedly declared he intended to “change the culture”, it would be a fair assumption that Barnett & Dobbs as well as 11 other players were “encouraged” to ply their trade elsewhere.
But let’s remember, if the coaching staff is entitled to clean house, then Spartan stakeholders are entitled to be given an explanation regarding an overview of the plan going forward.
It would also be fair for Spartan stakeholders to ask the question: who was right regarding the skill set of Barnett & Dobbs? Should we trust Nick Saban (Alabama), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Urban Meyer/Ryan Day (Ohio State), Brian Kelly (Notre Dame) and Mark Dantonio (Michigan State) all of whom competed for the talents of Barnett & Dobbs? Or should we trust the talent assessment of Mel Tucker and his staff?
We won’t know for certain until at least next season, but we do know this: within one week of declaring for the “Transfer Portal”, both Barnett and Dobbs were welcomed at Memphis, one of the best “Group of 5” schools in the country. A school that compiled a record of 28-11 (72%) in the past 3 years. In fact, in 2019 Memphis was the darling of the football world posting a record of 12-2 including “back to back” signature victories vs highly regarded Cincinnati (one victory during the regular season, and once in the AAC Playoffs).
And since we are talking about the loss of player assets, let’s add Recruiting into the mix as well. Mel Tucker only signed 19 recruits in December, which is a small recruiting class, a recruiting class ranked an uninspiring #40 in the country, and #9 Big Ten.
It should also be noted that Mel Tucker’s staff spoke confidently about recruiting Audric Estine a highly regarded 4-Star Running Back from New Jersey, yet just 2 days prior to the early signing period on December 16, Notre Dame poached Audric Estine from under the gaze of Spartan coaches.
So, when we take into account a net loss of 13 scholarship players into the “Transfer Portal” along with a small recruiting class, there are gaping roster holes at virtually every position group!
Some will judge the problems of 2020 harmlessly, defending it as a program in transition.
Yet as I focus upon Mel Tucker’s 5-7 record at Colorado, combined with a record of 2-5 at Michigan State, underscored by an incredible loss of player personnel, it fills me with an abundance of apprehension especially when we don’t have a definition of “changing the culture”.
At the bottom line (a prescription for rebuilding the roster):
In full disclosure, the Spartans have added 4 players to their roster via the same Transfer Portal including, 1 QB, 1 Offensive Lineman, 1 Running Back and 1 Defensive End.
Nevertheless, there is still a net loss of 9 players (over and above graduation as well as those who declared for the NFL) which means the Spartans need to fill a gaping hole in their roster if they hope to compete with the best.
Let’s start with this assumption: Job #1 is fixing a broken Rushing Offense that finished with historically bad production in 2020.
The Spartan Rushing Offense compiled just 91 Yards Rushing per game, the lowest Rushing production since 1947…that’s more than 70 years…and only 5 schools in the country were worse in 2020.
Moreover, the meager Rushing Production is an alarm that the Spartans Offensive Line is unable to control the Line of Scrimmage: that could be due to a lack of talent…it could be due to a lack of coaching fundamentals…or it could be due to both.
At any measure, if the Spartans hope to compete for championships then they need to consistently control the Offensive Line of Scrimmage and the best place to start is to err on the side of recruiting an abundance of Offensive Linemen.
The lessons we learn in “Football 101” tell us even the best Quarterbacks are unable to throw efficiently, and the best Running Backs are unable to find “daylight” if their Offensive Line is unable to control the Line of Scrimmage.
Curiously, since 2017, the Spartans have only recruited two (2) “4-Star” Offensive Lineman, including Kevin Jarvis in 2017, complemented by Devontae Dobbs in 2019: of course Devontae Dobbs just transferred.
Compare the Spartans recruitment of “4 or 5 Star” Offensive Linemen with Ohio State and Wisconsin the two most efficient Rushing Offenses in the Big Ten:
- Since 2017, Wisconsin has recruited eight (8) “4-Star, Offensive Linemen.
- Since 2017, Ohio State has recruited nine (9) “4-Star” Offensive Linemen…and five (5) “5-Star” Offensive Linemen.
Further to that point, since 2017, Wisconsin has averaged 225 Yards Rushing per game, while Ohio State has averaged 239 Yards Rushing per game.
By comparison, since 2017 the Spartans have averaged a dismal 128 Yards Rushing per game, or essentially 100 Rushing Yards less per game than either Ohio State or Wisconsin. That’s a deficit of more than 4500 Rushing Yards over 4 years when compared to either Ohio State or Wisconsin, and that is simply shocking.
It also underscores “why” the Spartans aren’t competing for Championships!
Everyone knows the importance of “building the trenches” yet when the recruiting cycle comes along, coaching staffs frequently forget the fundamentals as they focus upon recruiting Quarterbacks, Running Backs & Wide Receivers, yet once again, “Football 101” teaches us that even the best Quarterbacks and Running Backs struggle if their Offensive Line is unable to control the Line of Scrimmage.
So, the Spartans need to get busy recruiting 4&5 Star Offensive Linemen either through the Transfer Portal, or by way of conventional Recruiting…or both.
And let’s hold the Offensive coaching staff accountable as well, because we saw the Spartan Offense “out schemed” throughout the 2020 season, starting with Rutgers, whereby their Nose tackle single handedly destroyed the Spartans Offensive Line in the first game of the season.
At any measure, Mel Tucker is in the spotlight, but the spotlight comes with winning expectations.
If Mel Tucker produces a winning record in 2021, then all the problems of 2020 will be forgiven and forgotten, including a dismal 2-5 record, a 13th place finish in the Big Ten, and the extraordinary departure of 13 players via the “Transfer Portal”.
Yet, if Spartan football declines again next season, then Spartan stakeholders will quickly remember the turmoil of 2020 and they are unlikely to be forgiving.
After all, with a dismal won/lost record of just 7 wins & 12 losses in the past two years, at two different schools, in two different conferences, Mel Tucker needs to prove he can post a winning record.
Let’s wish Mel Tucker a prosperous 2021.
And Happy New Year to all my readers. I hope we are all blessed with a better tomorrow.
Thank you for reading and I always welcome your comments and opinions!
