Note: this is another in a series of articles trying to assess and define the Mel Tucker coaching administration. This missive discusses the disparity between compensation, rank amongst peers and recruiting. I think this missive is self-explanatory, and I hope you find it informative.
Mel Tucker was hailed by Spartan fans like a shooting star flying across the sky after posting an 11-2 record in 2021, naturally the fanfare included an abundance of accolades and like all “falling stars” was accompanied by plenty of “oohs and aahs”.
Nevertheless, MT’s star burned brightly for a while, but like all falling stars, his flame has essentially faded into nothingness.
It’s abundantly true: “one winning season does not a championship career make” …and so it is when evaluating Mel Tucker.
After all, other than 2021, Mel Tucker’s cumulative W/L record is a meager 12-19 (38%) overall, including just 8-17 (32%) against PAC 12 and Big Ten conference opponents. Hardly, Championship caliber.
And those facts are not lost on football analysts.
In the latest ranking of 69 “Power 5” Head Football Coaches from ACC, Big 10, Big 12, PAC 12 and SEC, Mel Tucker is ranked #47 out of 69, or the bottom 30th percentile. That also places MT in the bottom 30 percentile of Big Ten coaches as well. A far cry from Tucker’s heady days of hosting recruits while smoking cigars and sporting exotic cars.
In fact, Mel Tucker is sandwiched between little known Joey McGuire from Texas Tech (ranked #46), and Dana Holgorsen from Houston (ranked #48). Let’s be honest, McGuire and Holgorsen are not exactly household names in the coaching profession, yet that is where Mel Tucker finds himself.
And that ranking that places MT between McGuire and Holgorsen is decidedly notable because McGuire and Holgorsen earn less than half of Mel Tucker’s estimated $10 Mn per year compensation…and that underscores that Tucker’s compensation is totally out of step with logic.
Compensation absurdity:
When we dive into coaching compensation, NBC reported in Sept 2022 that Mel Tucker is the 6th highest paid coach in the land.
Yet, when we put that into perspective, only Nick Saban (Alabama), Kirby Smart (Georgia), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Lincoln Riley (formerly Oklahoma now USC) and Brian Kelly (formerly Notre Dame now LSU) earn more.
And here is the absurdity: each of those coaches have made multiple appearances to the College Football Playoff including the fact Saban, Swinney, and Smart have each claimed multiple National Titles.
Meanwhile, Mel Tucker claims multiple losing season, 3 in fact over the past 4 years yet earns nearly $10 Mn per year?
When assessing Mel Tucker, NBC declared:
“…it’s clear one of the highest paid coaches in college football isn’t one of the best in the sport (unquote).
NBC further declared….
” …. there is more than enough evidence to suggest Tucker is one of the most overpaid coaches in college football…” (unquote).
Equally egregious is the fact Mel Tucker is the highest paid coach in the Big Ten, compensated more than Ryan Day (Ohio State) and Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) both of whom have achieved multiple invitations to the CFP.
And let’s underscore one more point: Luke Fickell earns $2Mn less per year than Mel Tucker despite the fact Fickell made history by taking Cincinnati (a non-Power 5 School) to the CFP.
Think about that?
The resources at Cincinnati pale in comparison to Michigan State, yet Luke Fickell took Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, and during his tenure, at Cinci’ Fickell posted an overall W/L record of 57-18 (76%) including two Top 25 finishes, a Top 10 finish, a Top 5 finish and a trip to the College Football Playoff.
By comparison, in 4 years as Head Football Coach (1 at Colorado and 3 at Michigan State), Mel Tucker has posted 3 losing seasons in just 4 years with a #3 finish in Big Ten East as his “high water mark”.
There is something horribly wrong with that compensation model!
At the bottom line (no one believes Mel Tucker can reach the Promised Land and Spartan fans deserve better)
Mel Tucker has lost the confidence of football observers around the country and no one believes Mel Tucker can reach the Promised Land…so what are we doing?
He’s not only ranked a lowly #47 amongst 69 Power 5 coaches, but analysts predict the Spartans will finish no better than 5-7 overall this season or 3-6 in Big Ten competition.
The most optimistic prediction is 6-6 overall and 4-5 Big Ten, but why should we expect a better result than last season?
I would argue there is absolutely no reason to believe the Spartans will post a better record than the dismal 3-6 W/L record they posted in the Big Ten last season.
Let’s remember, embedded within the Spartan 3-6 Big Ten W/L record is the fact their W/L record vs Big Ten East opponents was just 1-5, and strikingly their only victory in Big Ten East was a narrow 6-point victory over last place Rutgers.
Fast forward to April 2023, and we watched Payton Thorne (the Spartans 2 year starting Quarterback) walk away after Spring Practice and he was joined by 4-Star WR Keon Coleman both of whom opted for the Transfer Portal. Clearly, Thorne and Coleman had lost confidence in Mel Tucker.
Meanwhile 4-Star WR, Germie Bernard acted more quickly and opted for the Transfer Portal shortly after the conclusion of the Spartans dismal 2022 season.
And in terms of attrition WR, Jayden Reed opted for the NFL and that means the entire battery of Quarterback and game changing WR’s walked away from Mel Tucker.
So, any semblance of continuity in the Spartans Pass Offense in 2023 has been scuttled.
Consequently, the Spartans will start the 2023 season with an inexperienced QB…a cadre of inexperienced WR’s…a collection of inexperienced Running Backs…and those inexperienced players will be anchored by a dysfunctional Offensive Line.
2022 Offense: Let’s remember, the Spartan Offense was woeful last season: when measured in Big Ten competition, the offense averaged just 19.8 PPG (ranked #10 amongst 14 Big Ten teams) while the Rush Offense (the gauge of a team’s ability to control the Offensive Line of Scrimmage), ranked “dead ass last” by way of averaging just 95 YPG.
2022 Defense: Meanwhile, the Spartan Defense was equally woeful. When measured in Big Ten competition, the Defense yielded 31 PPG (ranked #12 amongst 14 Big Ten teams), while its Rush Defense (the gauge of a team’s ability to control the Defensive Line of Scrimmage) yielded an eye glazing 210 YPG Rushing and ranked “dead ass last”!
So, let’s look at the “key” statistical results from last season when measured in Big Ten competition:
- Spartans Rush Offense averaged 95 YPG…Spartans Rush Defense yielded 210 YPG (plus 113 YPG for opponents)
- Spartans Offense averaged 327 YPG…Spartans Defense yielded 437 YPG (plus 110 YPG for opponents).
- Spartans Offense averaged 20 PPG…Spartans Defense yielded 31 PPG (plus 11 PPG for opponents)
Simply stated, the preceding stats underscore “dysfunctionality” and let’s remember Mel Tucker didn’t go to the Transfer Portal and recruit the next Joe Burrow to lead his Offense in 2023.
As noted earlier, Mel Tucker will commence the season with an inexperienced QB…a cadre of inexperienced WR’s…a collection of inexperienced Running Backs…and anchored by a dysfunctional Offensive Line orchestrated by Running Game Coordinator, Chris Kapilovic.
Given the fact the Spartans Rush Offense averaged just 95 YPG in Big Ten competition or “dead ass last” in the Big Ten, we can fairly ask the question: “What does Chris Kapilovic do for a living?”
Meanwhile, Defensively, two simple words underscore one of the most dysfunctional Defenses in Spartans Football history, and those words are “Scottie Hazelton” who carries the title, Spartans Defensive Coordinator.
Hazelton has orchestrated perhaps “the worst” Spartan Defense in Spartan Football history.
Immediately below are Spartan Defensive rankings compiled against 14 Big Ten teams:
- Rush Defense #14…yielded 210 YPG (dead ass last)
- Pass Defense #13…yielded 229 YPG
- Total Defense #13…yielded 437 YPG
- Scoring Defense #12…yielded 31 PPG
Let me ask this rhetorical question: How does one put a “Happy Face” on this product? And let’s ask another question: what does Scottie Hazelton do for a living?
I would argue, only Spartan fans who are intoxicated drinking Mel Tucker Kool Aid, believe Michigan State will be improved this season.
Other than Central Michigan (MAC), and Richmond (FCS/Colonial Athletic Assn), no other games look decidedly winnable.
In my view, Mel Tucker has proven to be an utter disappointment, in fact I would argue Mel Tucker has been an utter failure, and along with Offensive Coordinator, Jay Johnson: Run Game Coordinator, Chris Kapilovic; and Defensive Coordinator, Scottie Hazelton collectively they have proven to be “over their head” in Big Ten competition which makes a mockery of Spartan Football.
And at this writing, Mel Tucker’s 2024 recruiting class is ranked #67 or near the bottom of all Power 5 schools, naturally there will be some changes over time, but it’s an early and ominous indictor that Mel Tucker has not dazzled HS prospects.
So, when taken all together, I think the facts alert us that Michigan State Football under Mel Tucker is not trending north.
And how long is Alan Haller prepared to keep Spartan Football on “auto pilot”, doing the same thing, with the same coaches and expecting a better result?
Unless Alan Haller is prepared to “fire the entire staff” and start anew…then Spartan fans will get an interminable diet of losing seasons.
After all, losing doesn’t get better with time and I would argue a 2-7 Big Ten season is arguably the best outcome in 2023 with possible (not certain) victories at Rutgers and/or at Indiana, yet let’s not forget, Mel Tucker lost to Indiana at Spartan Stadium in 2OT last fall.
I wish I could be optimistic, but Mel Tucker has compiled woeful stats and earned his losing record.
Spartan fans deserve better…
Dayne Thomas
Will2Win.blog
Thank you for reading. I always welcome your comments and opinions and of course you can always click on Will2Win.blog to read previous articles and related stories.
