Note: this is another in a series of articles trying to assess and define Mel Tucker’s coaching administration, and this missive discusses recruiting methodology. I hope you find it informative.
Recruiting the “backyard” has been a staple of college football since its inception.
Of course, trying to define the “backyard” is a bit arbitrary, but in essence it means recruiting players from a 250-mile radius of campus or essentially a day trip by car.
In the case of Michigan State University, the 250-mile radius includes the lower peninsula of Michigan including but not limited to Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids, Saginaw, and Traverse City, as well as eastern half of the Upper Peninsula.
The 250-mile radius also includes out of state metropolitan areas such as Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Chicago, Illinois; Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio; as well as Indianapolis, Indiana.
So, as defined herein, the 250-mile radius from East Lansing is a target rich environment for recruiting.
Moreover, there is a practicality to the 250-mile recruiting radius and I would argue the 250 mile radius takes into account players that are familiar with the region and its culture; familiar with the school; familiar with the football program; understand the rivalries; are prepared for unstable fall weather; and an important component is the fact that 250 miles is a manageable day trip by car that enables family and friends to visit on game day.
Simply put, inasmuch as players from within a 250-mile radius are generally familiar with the region and its culture, they are most likely to “stay the course” in the face of adversity.
Yet, in the last 3 recruiting cycles (2021, 2022, and 2023) Mel Tucker and his staff have essentially ignored players within the 250-mile footprint and gone all over the map recruiting 57 players from 18 states.
While 14 (or 25%) of Mel Tucker recruits hail from Michigan, on the other hand just 2 players hail from Ohio and just 1 recruit hails from Indiana. Otherwise 72% of Mel Tucker’s players were recruited from beyond the 250-mile recruiting radius including 8 from Georgia, 5 from Texas, 4 from Florida, 3 from Arizona, 3 from California and 2 from Nevada.
So, let’s examine: the efficiency of Mel Tucker’s recruiting strategy including both conventional recruiting as well as Transfer Portal, and here is that summary:
- 57 players were acquired via conventional/High School recruiting.
- 36 players “transferred in” via Transfer Portal*
- 59 players “transferred out” via Transfer Portal*
*Given that players entering or withdrawing from the Transfer Portal are in constant flux, I put forth these totals with possibility of 5% error.
In total, Mel Tucker recruited 93 players by way of HS recruiting and/or the Transfer Portal, yet 59 players “transferred out” which netted 34 players in 3 recruiting cycles or just 12 players per cycle. That’s a tiny number and unsustainable for roster building.
Moreover, how can anyone make sense of roster chaos that belies consistency and continuity?
If you are seeking to understand how Mel Tucker’s recruiting methodology translates to the football field, well the answer is not well.
In 3 years of Big Ten competition, Mel Tucker has posted a dismal 12-13 W/L record in Big Ten competition, or just 7-10 vs Big Ten East competition. In fact, last season, Mel Tucker was just 1-5 vs Big Ten East opponents!
And for every player such as Kenneth Walker III who was acquired via the Transfer Portal and contributed mightily to the Spartans posting an 11-2 W/L record in 2021, there were players such as Drew Jordan, Jarrett Horst and Harold Joiner who arrived with great fanfare via the “Portal”, yet whose contributions have been unremarkable at best.
In fact, I would characterize Jarrett Horst (O-Tackle) as an unmitigated and undisciplined liability due his unwarranted “wrestling matches” at the Line of Scrimmage that resulted in incessant and flagrant infractions that either stalled drives or stopped drives. Of course, Horst has moved on.
Meanwhile, Transfer Portal acquisitions such as Itayvion Brown, Khary Crump and Jacoby Windmon “unfavorably” distinguished themselves in a post-game melee at Michigan Stadium last season that led to each being suspended for the final 4 games of the season…and frankly their contributions in Big Ten competition could best be characterized as “ordinary”.
And let’s not forget Quavarius Crouch who “transferred in” with great fanfare in 2021, then “transferred out” in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Spartans 2024 Recruiting class is shockingly bad, given the fact it was ranked #73 in the land on June 13, so let’s put that into perspective.
As at June 13, Mel Tucker’s 2024 recruiting class ranked worse than Rutgers (#24) …Miami of Ohio (#39) …Toledo (#57) …North Texas (#65)…Florida Atlantic (#69)…and Appalachian State (#72), and it also means Mel Tucker’s 2024 class was “dead ass last” in the Big Ten on that date.
Of course, 2024 recruiting is still in flux, but the Spartans aren’t exactly experiencing a rush of top tier recruits. In fact, it is reported Mel Tucker got commitments from two D-Backs on June 14, one of which (Reggie Powers) is ranked “3-Stars” while the other (Camren Campbell) is “unranked”.
If you are curious, “Unranked” means “no-star” ranking, and that means Campbell doesn’t rise to the minimum standard to be evaluated by recruiting services.
By any measure, neither of the aforementioned recruits could be described as “can’t miss recruits”, so let’s ask this question: how much do you think the two aforementioned D-Backs will improve Mel Tucker’s Pass Defense which has consistently ranked amongst the worst in the country for the past 3 seasons?
Clearly, top tier recruits are not clamoring to be on Mel Tucker’s team and Mel Tucker is seemingly taking any recruit who is looking for a home!
Mel Tucker needs a road map of the Midwest.
Let’s be clear, Mel Tucker earns nearly $10 Mn per year, but his prodigious salary isn’t evident in the W/L column.
After all, Mel Tucker has posted 2 losing seasons in the past 3 years.
Moreover, I would argue Mel Tucker hasn’t demonstrated a capacity for building a championship caliber coaching staff and he certainly hasn’t demonstrated he can conceive and deploy a coherent recruiting strategy.
In fact, Mel Tucker’s recruiting strategy is decidedly opposite from Mark Dantonio’s successful “inside/out” recruiting protocol.
During Mark Dantonio’s halcyon days from 2010 to 2015, he recruited 125 players, including 46 from Michigan and 35 from Ohio, or about 65% of all recruits hailed from Michigan and Ohio.
Further to that point only about 34% of Dantonio players were recruited from beyond the 250-mile recruiting footprint and we can comfortably characterize Mark Dantonio’s recruiting strategy as highly productive.
In the 6 years cited (2010 to 2015) Dantonio successfully recruited players from within the 250-mile recruiting footprint who distinguished themselves in the Big Ten and many distinguished themselves in the NFL as well, including but not limited to:
- Defensive stalwarts: Lawrence Thomas…Max Bullough…Riley Bullough…William Gholston…Marcus Rush…Joel Heath…Taiwan Jones…Damon Knox…Chris Frey and Trae Waynes.
- O-Line: Jack Allen…Brian Allen…and Jack Conklin
- Quarterback: Connor Cook…
- Tight End: Josiah Price
- Running Backs: LJ Scott…Le’Veon Bell…Nick Hill…and Jeremy Langford
- Receivers: Tony Lippett…and Aaron Burbridge…
And that’s the short list of players recruited from within the 250 Mile footprint and a salient point that needs to be made is there were very few defections during Dantonio’s tenure and his tenure was underscored as a model of roster consistency and continuity.
Of course, Dantonio went beyond the 250 mile footprint if and when he identified a “can’t miss prospect” such as Darqueze Dennard…Shilique Calhoun…Paul Lang…Felton Davis…or Brian Lewerke, nevertheless 65% of Dantonio’s recruits were identified, scouted and recruited from within the trusted 250 mile recruiting footprint.
I would also argue, Dantonio’s recruits were conspicuously loyal because Dantonio’s staff knew the players, had close relationships with their HS Coaches and in turn, Dantonio’s prospective recruits knew Dantonio and his staff by way of “camping” at Michigan State over several summers.
Meanwhile, Mel Tucker has been meandering all over the recruiting map:
By contrast to Dantonio, Mel Tucker has meandered all over the lot chasing recruits across the country.
In fact a “whopping” 72% of Mel Tucker recruits hail from beyond the 250 Mile recruiting footprint, and lack of loyalty is clear.
After posting a dismal 5-7 record in 2022, 21 players opted to Transfer “out” including but not limited to highly regarded 4-Star receivers Germie Bernard who opted for University of Washington, and Keon Coleman who opted for Florida State.
It’s worth noting, Bernard (originally from Nevada) opted to return west and committed to the University of Washington, while, Keon Coleman (originally from Louisiana) opted to return to the southeast and took his skills to Florida State.
If you’re curious regarding Bernard’s attraction to UW, well last season UW boasted #1 Pass Offense in the land when measured amongst 130 FBS Schools, averaging an incredible 370 YPG. UW also boasted the #2 Offense in the land averaging 515 Yards and 40 PPG.
Bernard clearly envisioned himself playing in Washington’s high powered Pass Offense for Head Coach Kalen DeBoer who has championship credentials. Bernard made a reasonable assumption that playing for Kalen DeBoer would bolster his resume, and improve his NFL stock.
After all, UW compiled an 11-2 record last season in DeBoer first season and UW is expected to compete for PAC 12 title in 2023 complemented by a CFP invitation.
As noted, Keon Coleman (originally from Louisiana) opted to return to the southeast and took his skills to Florida State, where last season, Florida State posted a solid 10-3 record including victories over LSU, Miami, and Oklahoma.
Moreover, FSU Head Coach, Mike Norvell had unprecedented success at Memphis, and he is replicating that magic at FSU.
Last season, FSU Offense averaged 485 Yards per game while its Pass Offense averaged more than 270 YPG and Coleman sees himself flourishing in a program guided by Mike Norvell.
Meanwhile, Florida State boasts a Top 15 preseason ranking and is expected to compete for ACC Title and that would portend a CFP invitation.
As Wide Receivers with NFL aspirations, both Bernard and Coleman arguably grew frustrated with Mel Tucker’s “low octane” Offense that averaged less than 330 YPG and less than 20 PPG in Big Ten competition last season while posting a 3-6 Big Ten record including a 10th place finish.
Moreover, not a single analyst in the land believes Michigan State will compete for a title of any kind in 2023, consequently Bernard and Coleman understood the implications and opted to leave Mel Tucker to play for coaches with decidedly greater upside.
At the bottom line: Mel Tucker is squandering scholarships and Spartan fans deserve better:
Another notable defection was Hampton Fay originally from Texas who entered the Transfer Portal and opted for University of Oklahoma which means Hamp Fay will return close to home.
As a High School senior in Ft. Worth, Texas in 2021, Hampton Fay was listed as 6’5” and 210#, and he was Mel Tucker’s first QB recruit. Yet in 2 years, Hamp Fay never played a down for the Spartans.
Interestingly, by all accounts, Mel Tucker went after Hamp Fay hard. In fact, Tucker declared Fay “the future of Spartan Football”! Hmmmm…
But let’s ask this question: given that Fay played High School football more than 1200 miles from East Lansing, how well did Mel Tucker know and understand Hamp Fay?
How well did Mel Tucker know Fay’s High School Coach and how much discussion did they have regarding Fay’s development?
After all, Fay was a WR as a Freshman and Sophomore, played just 3 games as a QB as a Junior before suffering a season ending shoulder injury and then only logged 7 games as a Senior. Hamp Fay’s body of work as a Quarterback totaled just 10 games!
So, Fay was injured most of his Junior and Senior seasons, nevertheless Mel Tucker declared Hamp Fay as “the future of Spartan Football” but how could he make such a declarative statement if Fay only logged 10 games as a Quarterback?
And what input did Jay Johnson have, after all Johnson is Mel Tucker’s Offensive Coordinator who is earning more than $1Mn per hear?
Sadly, I will argue that Mel Tucker and Jay Johnson “squandered” a valuable scholarship on Hampton Fay.
I would also argue they “squandered” a valuable scholarship on former QB hopeful, Anthony Russo as well. Remember him? Russo was a Transfer from Temple but logged just 23 snaps for the Spartans and his tenure could best be described as non productive.
Meanwhile, in the same class that Hamp Fay and Anthony Russo were recruited by Mel Tucker, Jim Harbaugh reeled in JJ McCarthy from IMG and in turn, McCarthy guided the Wolverines to a Big Ten title and an invitation to the CFP last season.
So, Mel Tucker and Jay Johnson “spun the wheel of fortune” on an “oft injured” 3-Star Quarterback from Texas who only logged 10 games in High School as well as a pedestrian Quarterback transfer from Temple with very little Big Ten potential, so Mel Tucker and Jay Johnson came up empty handed.
In closing, I would argue Mel Tucker’s recruiting methodology is more akin to schools such as Wyoming that due to geographic isolation are forced to recruit whomever they can, and wherever they can, and while that methodology is satisfactory in the Mountain West Conference, by contrast, Mel Tucker’s recruiting methodology is not consistent with a program poised to compete for Big Ten and National Titles.
So, from my chair, it is simply beyond my capacity to comprehend Mel Tucker ever posting a winning record in the Big Ten East…and Spartan fans deserve better.
Thank you for reading.
Dayne Thomas
Will2Win.blog
Thank you for reading. I always welcome your comments and opinions and of course you can always click on Will2Win.blog to read previous articles and related stories.
