Note: this is another in a series of articles trying to assess and define Mel Tucker’s coaching administration. This missive takes an in depth look at 2024 recruiting. I hope you find it informative.
It may sound far away, but the 2024 recruiting cycle is nearly done.
In fact, June marked the last big opportunity for schools to host recruits on campus until the fall. That means on December 20, 2023 which is less than 6 months from now, prospective recruits will sign National Letters of Intent (LOI) for 2024. Yet most top tier players are already committed to the school of their choice.
Problematically, in the 2024 recruiting race, Mel Tucker is way back in the pack given his recruiting class ranks #56 in the land when measured against 130 D-1/FBS Schools: that means #14 within the Big Ten.
But wait a minute…we were told Mel Tucker was a master recruiter yet evidence seems to be pointing in the other direction. As it relates to 2024, Mel Tucker has only gotten commitments from 10 recruits which means virtually every Big Ten team has assembled a better recruiting class.
To bring Mel Tucker’s dismal recruiting achievements into focus, we should make note of Michigan which is the school Spartan fans love to hate. Yet, in the past two years Michigan has won two consecutive Big Ten Championships, earned an invitation to two consecutive College Football Playoffs and achieved two Top 5 finishes.
And while Mel Tucker is floundering, Jim Harbaugh is gaining momentum and essentially making a mockery of Mel Tucker’s recruiting efforts.
For what it’s worth, Michigan’s 2024 recruiting class is ranked #4 in the land when measured against 130 D-1/FBS Schools, and when measured against 16 Big Ten teams (including USC and UCLA which officially enter Big Ten competition in 2024) Michigan ranks #2 with 24 recruits including sixteen (16) 4-Stars: a quick calculation tells us more than 66% of Michigan’s 2024 recruiting class is comprised of 4-Star players.
Let’s remember, 4-Star players are the “playmakers and game changers of the future”, players who possess bona fide NFL skills, so Jim Harbaugh is assembling an impressive recruiting class which assuredly will make multiple championship runs in the next 4 years.
On the other hand, Mel Tucker seems to have lost his way on the recruiting trail given the fact his 2024 class is ranked #56 when measured against 130 D-1/FBS schools and #14 within the Big Ten. More problematically, Mel Tucker has only acquired one (1) 4-Star player.
Old days of recruiting are gone
The old days of recruiting are gone.
By the “old days” I mean the time when prospective recruits awaited February in the year of their HS graduation, and then dutifully “faxed” their “Letter of Intent” on national signing day. Yet those days are gone and the historic February signing date has been replaced by “early signing” in the third week of December.
So, as we look at 2024 most of the best players have already given verbal commitments to the football program of their choice and therefore recruits can focus upon their senior seasons with minimal distraction. In turn, championship caliber programs already have commitments from the majority of the players they will enroll in fall of 2024
By all measures, today’s savvy recruits, namely 5-Star and 4-Star players are well versed on the rules of the recruiting road. They fundamentally understand their value as a player and that means they essentially control the recruiting process. They pick and choose the recruiting visits they like most and commit to the coaching staffs they like best
Said another way, the best players are not going “hat in hand” looking for a football home, rather the best recruits are seeking football programs and coaching staffs which consistently compete at the highest level, and coaching staffs with the best record preparing players for the NFL.
At this point in the recruiting cycle, the best players have visited a multitude of Power 5 schools; done extensive research on the respective coaching staffs and given their “verbal commitment” to the programs they like best, yet Mel Tucker has just one (1) 4-Star player.
We should also note Mel Tucker has lost more 4-Star players than he has acquired; notably, he lost two (2) 4-Star recruits who decommitted in the Spring about the time that Payton Thorne and Keon Coleman entered the Transfer Portal.
The players who decommitted include Jamari Howard, a 4-Star, CB from Miami, and Nick Marsh, a 4-Star, WR from River Rouge and the loss of Nick Marsh was extraordinarily distasteful because River Rouge is virtually in Mel Tucker’s back yard.
Yet, to offset the loss of Howard and Marsh, Mel Tucker, seemingly desperate, got commitments from Camren Campbell an “Unranked”, CB from Tampa, Florida, and Reggie Powers a middling 3-Star, Safety from Dayton, Ohio but let’s be honest, we could easily argue Mel Tucker came up short with that transaction.
Yet, on June 27, Mel Tucker said: “We’re starting to get some real momentum in recruiting…”, but hold on, that statement doesn’t square with the facts cited herein.
In fact, it would be fair to declare it will be virtually impossible for Mel Tucker to close the gap against the best Big Ten teams given that most top tier players are already committed and given the fact Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC all rank within the Top 10 recruiting classes in the country.
In that context we can note: Michigan has sixteen (16) 4-Star players…Penn State has thirteen (13)…USC has twelve (12)…Ohio State has eleven (11)…and even Nebraska and Purdue have commitments from four (4) 4-Stars each.
So, it would be fair to describe Mel Tucker’s recruiting predicament as desperate given that Mel Tucker has only acquired one (1) 4-Star player, yet lost two (2) 4-Stars due to decommitment.
Maybe we should ask Mel Tucker: “what are we doing”?
Mel Tucker is pinning his recruiting hopes on long shots.
With most of the best players of 2024 already off the table, Mel Tucker is pinning his hopes on long shots, but so far his batting average is lower than the legendary Mendoza Line.
If this was Baseball, Mal Tucker is swinging for the fences but missing by a mile. As noted, MT has just 10 verbal commitments including just one (1) 4-Star. So, now with the game on the line, MT is swinging wildly for the fences.
Let’s take a look at longshot recruits Mel Tucker recently hosted on campus and for the record, I extracted most of the following details from the highly regarded On3 recruiting service:
- Jamari Howard, (4-Star, CB) from Miami. Howard committed to Mel Tucker months ago but then decommitted after Thorne and Coleman opted for the Transfer Portal. It’s notable that MT is still chasing Howard, yet it’s no surprise that Howard (originally from Miami), is leaning heavily toward Florida State which according to On3 is odds on favorite to land Howard at 31% while the Spartans are technically out of the race.
- Nick Marsh (4-Star, WR) from River Rouge, committed to Mel Tucker months ago, then decommitted. Marsh is now leaning heavily toward Penn State which according to On3 is odds on favorite to land Marsh at 93% confidence. In turn, the Spartans rate a meager 3% chance. I would argue, the loss of Marsh is an Ominous indictment of Mel Tucker given he was unable to earn commitment from a homegrown product. It’s also embarrassing that by all accounts Nick Marsh will choose Penn State and James Franklin over Michigan State.
- Tarrion Grant (4-Star, CB) from Murfreesboro, TN is being recruited by 12 heavy weights including but not limited to LSU, Miami, Michigan, Tennessee, Wisconsin as well as Coach Prime at Colorado. Yet, On3 rate Louisville as favorites to land Grant while the Spartans are rated just 19%.
- David Stone (5-Star, DL) 6’4” and 280# is Top 5 overall prospect. By all measures, David Stone is a bona fide NFL prospect. He is originally from Oklahoma City and played his first two years at Dei City HS in OKC. Stone is currently enrolled at powerful IMG Academy in Bradenton, FL. He is being recruited by Florida, Miami, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Michigan State, yet it’s no surprise Oklahoma is odds on favorite at 79% to land Stone, while Spartans are rated just 15%.
- Jason Brown (4-Star, RB) from Seattle, WA. According to On3, Oregon is odds on favorite to land Brown at 30%, while University of Washington is a close second at 21%. Both Oregon and Washington are in Brown’s backyard while the Spartans (3 time zones to the east) are rated less than 18%
- DeAndre Carter (4-Star, OL) from Santa Ana, CA, is enrolled at powerful Mater Dei in Santa Ana. Carter is a massive specimen at 6’4”/340#. He is being recruited by Alabama, Auburn, Texas, USC and Michigan State. Of course, USC is in his backyard and considered odds on favorite by On3 to land Carter at 41% while the Spartans are considered to have just 12% chance.
With most top tier recruits already off the table for 2024, I cited 6 top tier recruits whom Mel Tucker is still chasing. In fact most of the aforementioned recruits were hosted by Mel Tucker on June 23 and 24, but none bought into Mel Tucker’s recruiting pitch.
Of course, the aforementioned recruits could change recruiting preferences between now and December, but let’s be honest, each of the aforementioned recruits is leaning toward programs whereby they have historical roots or programs in their respective backyards, so it would be considered the longest of long shots for Mel Tucker to land “any” of the aforementioned prospects.
At the bottom line “how do we paint a happy face on Spartan recruiting”?
This is Mel Tucker’s 4th year at Michigan State, and in 4 recruiting cycles including 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, Mel Tucker has recruited seventeen (17) 4-Star players, yet we should note Mel Tucker lost Germie Bernard and Keon Coleman into the Transfer Portal after last season.
That means MT has only netted fifteen (15) 4-Star players in 4 recruiting cycles and by no means can that be construed as building a championship roster. Meanwhile, the idiosyncratic Jim Harbaugh, the coach Spartan fans love to hate, has recruited forty (40)…count ‘em FORTY…4-Star players in the last 4 recruiting cycles, including sixteen (16) 4-Stars in 2024 alone.
We can also note Harbaugh has recruited two (2) 5-Star players, while Mel Tucker has yet to recruit a single 5-Star.
When we look at the big picture, the facts tell us Jim Harbaugh has tweaked and tinkered and methodically crafted a Championship caliber coaching staff; he has also built a championship caliber recruiting portfolio, posted 5 double digit winning seasons including three Big Ten East titles, posted two Big Ten titles and logged two consecutive appearances in the CFP.
Meanwhile, Mel Tucker has posted 2 losing seasons in the past 3 years and I would argue his recruiting portfolio is going in reverse.
All of that underscores the fact Jim Harbaugh is arguably poised for a championship run of major proportions, while I would argue that based upon the recruiting data cited herein, Mel Tucker is poised for consecutive finishes in the bottom tier of the Big Ten.
I would also argue Mel Tucker needs a remedial class in building a championship caliber coaching staff and Mel Tucker also needs instruction how to build a championship caliber recruiting portfolio.
I hate to be cynical but there have been too many unfulfilled promises. The future is now and I stand in support of Spartan fans across the land who deserve better than Mel Tucker is giving them.
Thank you for reading.
Dayne Thomas
Will2Win.blog
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