We had modest expectations, yet even modest expectations were unfulfilled as the season spun out of control and now we are left with more questions than answers.
The Spartans 39-24 loss at Penn State last Saturday was a microcosm of the season as hope turned to despair.
In the 2nd Half, when it mattered most, the Spartans Offense posted just 24 Yards Rushing, converted just 1 of 8, 3rd Downs, and got outscored 29-3.
I don’t intend to recap the game because everyone knows the story, but the Spartans finished the abbreviated regular season with a dismal 2-5 record, and that means they finished in a 3 way tie for last place in the Big Ten, sharing last place with Illinois and Nebraska.
Needless to say, a last place finish is not what we expected from a new coaching staff. Curiously, some have called Spartan Football a rebuilding project, yet I take great exception to that premise.
While Mark Dantonio’s last three seasons weren’t championship caliber, nevertheless the Spartans still managed to compile a respectable won/lost record of 24-15 (62%), including 2 Bowl victories.
Of course, as recently as 2015, the Spartans won a Big Ten title and earned an invitation to the College Football Playoff, and while the Spartans trended down since 2015, the foundation of the program was stable, certainly more stable than the program Mark Dantonio inherited in 2006.
Nevertheless, Mark Dantonio was caught in a time warp as he continued to deploy a Jim Tressel style, ball control football Offense and failed to adapt to 21st Century Offensive concepts utilized by Urban Meyer, Ryan Day, Dabo Swinney and others. It was clear, Mark Dantonio didn’t have an appetite to change Offensive philosophies.
So, the writing was on the wall…
Mark Dantonio knew it was time, and he stepped down last February and a new Coaching staff was hired. We were told the new coaching staff had the experience, the resources and the wherewithal to correct course, reset the compass, “fix” a dismal Offense and compete for Championships.
But that’s not what happened…
Did you think the Offense would regress?
Well, it did…
As noted, 2019 was not a beacon of success for Dantonio’s legacy and his program was headed in the wrong direction underscored by some of the worst Offensive stats of his tenure.
Yet, not only was the new Coaching staff unable to fix the Offense, rather the Offense regressed to unprecedented levels. Take a look:
Spartan Offense, 2019 to 2020:
- Rushing Offense declined from 127 Yards per game in 2019, to just 88 YPG in 2020 (-39 YPG)
- Total Offense declined from 372 YPG in 2019, to just 325 YPG in 2020 (-47 YPG)
- Scoring Offense declined from 22 Points per game in 2019, to just 18 PPG in 2020 (-4 PPG)
- 3rd Down Conversions declined from .365 per game in 2019, to just .321 in 2020 (-0.44)
We were abundantly aware that Mark Dantonio’s Offense in 2019 was struggling, but the offensive decline from 2019 to 2020 should be considered a “multiple alarm fire” because it demonstrates the new Offensive Coordinator, Offensive Line Coach, Run Game Coordinator, and Running Back Coach don’t have a coherent plan to “fix” what was considered a feeble Offense, and the proof lies in the fact the Offensive production regressed in every major statistical category.
Unfortunately, the Defense regressed as well…
It hasn’t been talked about, but we need to ask “why” the new coaching staff “shoe horned” a 4-2-5 Defensive scheme into a Defensive system that had performed admirably for the past decade?
After all, by changing the Defensive scheme to a 4-2-5 from a more conventional 4-3-4, it transformed a “Front 7” into a “Front 6”, took a body out of the middle, and in the “run first” Big Ten, the numbers favored opponents.
Moreover, in spite of dismal Offensive production over the past 3 years, the Spartans Rushing Defense, under the direction of Mike Tressel (D-Coordinator and Linebacker Coach) with ample help from Ron Burton (Defensive Line Coach) performed above the call of duty.
Let’s remember, the Rushing Defense was amongst the best in the land over the past 3 years, in fact when the Offense slumped, the Rushing Defense stood tall yielding an average of just 95 Yards (2017)…78 Yards (2018)…and 114 Yards (2019) and that translated to national Rankings of #2, #1, and #16 from 2017 to 2019 respectively.
In fact, for the better part of the past decade, the Spartan Rushing Defense has been a Top 15 performer when measured against 130 D-1 Schools.
Meanwhile the Spartan Scoring Defense has been exceedingly stingy as well, yielding an average of just 20 points…17 points…and 23 points from 2017 to 2019.
So, we have to ask the question again, why in the world would the new coaching staff adopt a 4-2-5 Defensive scheme in the “run first” Big Ten, when it is generally agreed upon that a 4-2-5 is better adapted to “Pass First” conferences such as Big 12 and PAC 12?.
It’s my point of view that adopting a 4-2-5 wasn’t to fit Defensive personnel, rather it was a forced change to accommodate familiarity of the Defensive coaches who were more familiar with the 4-2-5, yet it didn’t work inasmuch as the Defense regressed in every meaningful statistical category…let’s take a look:
Defense:
- Rushing Defense: yielded 162 Yards per game in 2020, compared to just 114 Yards per game in 2019 (48 YPG)
- Total Defense: yielded 391 Yards per game in 2020, compared to 322 YPG in 2019 (69 YPG)
- Scoring Defense: yielded 34 Points per game in 2020, compared to just 23 Points per game in 2019 (11 PPG)
- 3rd Down Conversions: increased from .348 in 2019, to .398 in 2020, an increase of (0.50)
A “key” Defensive stat is the fact opponents were able to convert 3rd Downs at a rate of nearly 40%, which is anything but lockdown.
Overall, when we take into account Spartans Offensive decline as well as the Defensive decline in 2020, it renders a differential of 116 Yards and 15 Points per game in favor of Spartan opponents…and that’s how the Spartans find themselves in last place in the Big Ten.
We didn’t expect a lot, but we expected better:
No one expected the Spartans would win a Big Ten title in 2020, yet we did expect measurable improvement, especially improvement as it relates to fixing one of the worst Offenses in the country, and yet the Spartan Offense regressed in virtually every facet.
There were some Offensive bright spots in 2020 of course: there is a promising Quarterback, and there are promising, game breaking receivers.
Yet, there are “fundamental” problems of incredible magnitude given the fact the Spartans Rushing Offense averaged less than 90 Yards Rushing per game and finished the regular season with its worst Rushing production since 1947 (that’s more than 70 years). It’s shocking, but only 4 schools in the country were worse.
Of course, everyone who reads this is abundantly aware that if you can’t run the football in the Big Ten, you can’t win Big Ten football games.
Of course, almost every day during the season we were served accounts from “Spartan Beat Writers” regarding the difficult transition inherited by the Spartans new coaching staff, recounting their late start in February, as well as issues related to the pandemic, etc, etc, etc.
And while a late start would be challenging for any new coaching staff, let us not embarrass the dignity of Spartan Football by embracing a point of view to rationalize declining performance.
Coaching is a results oriented business, and the Spartans new coaching staff is getting paid Top 15 compensation with the expectation they have the wherewithal to overcome a measure of adversity.
Yet, If we are going to embrace the problems related to a late start, then we must embrace the incredible coaching performance of Karl Dorrell.
Who is Karl Dorrell? He’s the coach who took the reins at Colorado after Mel Tucker departed for Michigan State.
Needless to say, Karl Dorrell started even later than Mel Tucker, yet Karl Dorrell managed to post a 4-1 regular season record at Colorado with signature victories vs UCLA, Stanford, and San Diego State and thereby finished #2, PAC 12.
Of course, the won/lost record improved from 5-7 (42%), to 4-1 (80%), yet in addition, Colorado averaged an impressive 218 Yards Rushing in 2020, an improvement of 68 YPG from the team Karl Dorrell inherited from Mel Tucker.
In fact, Karl Dorrell improved Colorado in virtually every major statistical category Offensively and Defensively from the team he inherited from Mel Tucker.
And how about Greg Schiano at Rutgers?
Greg Schiano was hired just two months before Mel Tucker, yet Schiano inherited a program that lost 21 consecutive Big Ten games, nevertheless Schiano started the 2020 season by beating Mel Tucker and Michigan State 38-27 at Spartan Stadium.
No one expected heroics from the Spartans new coaching staff, but we certainly didn’t expect to regress Offensively, and Defensively and thereby fall to the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
At the bottom line (Spartan coaching staff got a Big Ten wakeup call)
I want to be respectful to the Spartans new Coaching staff, but they have an enormous amount of work ahead.
The numbers don’t lie, and a last place finish in the Big Ten is the only number Spartan stakeholders need to remember…
After all, we’re not drawing a comparison to Alabama, or Clemson or Ohio State…
Rather, we are comparing the Spartans first year coaching staff to the first year tenure of Karl Dorrell at Colorado who improved the 5-7 team he inherited from Mel Tucker, to 4-1 in his first year including a 2nd Place finish in the PAC 12.
And we are comparing the Spartans first year coaching staff to the results of Greg Schiano, because it was Schiano who inherited a program that had lost 21 consecutive Big Ten games, yet Schiano beat the Spartans, and finished ahead of Michigan State in the Big Ten standings.
We are also comparing the Spartans new coaching staff to first year coaching staffs who posted records of .500 and above, including Boston College, Missouri, Washington and Ole Miss to name a few!
In that context, it does not reflect well upon the Spartans new coaching staff who inherited a team that posted a record of 7-6 in 2019, yet regressed and posted a dismal record of 2-5 in 2020 and finished last place in the Big Ten.
So, the Spartan coaching staff have one last chance to redeem themselves and show improvement when they travel to College Park, MD this Saturday to play Maryland in the so called Champions Week.
What is the likelihood the Spartans can beat Maryland on the road? Well Maryland beat Penn State 35-19, while the Spartans lost at Penn State 39-24, so you be the judge.
Tomorrow is early signing day for the 2021 recruiting class, yet the recruiting class is currently ranked an unflattering #42 in the country, and #10 Big Ten and if history is our guide, many of those prospective recruits will arguably decline the Spartans offer and go elsewhere given the Spartans last place finish in the Big Ten underscored by the coaching staffs two year won/lost record of just 7 wins and 12 losses.
Let’s hope the Spartans coaching staff can find a way to win at Maryland, and if they do, it will also offer a measure of hope to those who follow the Spartans, because so far, the Spartans new coaching staff has raised more questions than answers.
Thank you for reading, and I always welcome your comments and opinions.
