The un-ranked Spartans will play #8 Wisconsin in the unfriendly confines of legendary Camp Randall Stadium.

It’s a venue whereby good teams go to die because Wisconsin rarely loses at home. This season, Wisconsin is a perfect 5-0 overall, including 4-0 at Camp Randall and 2-0 vs Big Ten competition. Meanwhile the unranked Spartans have a record of 4-2 overall including 1-1 on the road and 2-1 Big Ten, and now the Spartans play on the road at #8 Wisconsin.

Wisconsin isn’t just winning, they are mauling their opponents. After 5 games, the Badgers rank #1 in four “key” Defensive categories, as well as #1 in Turnover Margin, #1 in Time of Possession, and #2 Rushing Defense when measured against 129 Division 1 schools. Take a look:

• #1 Total Defense…yielding 178 Yards per game
• #1 Passing Defense…yielding 131 Yards per game
• #1 Scoring Defense…yielding 5.8 Points per game
• #1, 3^rd Down Conversion Defense…yielding 16% conversions
• #1 in Turnover Margin…+1.4
• #1 Time of Possession…37 minutes and change
• #2 Rushing Defense…yielding 48 Yards per game

Yet Wisconsin’s hasn’t exactly played a daunting schedule inasmuch as they have only played two Power 5 opponents, and their opponents have an cumulative upside down record of 12-14.

Wisconsin is formidable but not unbeatable:

Wisconsin has beaten South Florida which posted a record of 2-3…Central Michigan 3-3…Michigan 4-1…Northwestern 1-4…and Kent State 2-3, but Wisconsin’s 24-15 victory vs Northwestern is instructive because Northwestern is a common opponent between Michigan State and Wisconsin.

Wisconsin beat Northwestern of course, but it wasn’t exactly an afternoon at the beach. Wisconsin had a narrow 7-3 lead at the Half…and led just 14-3 after 3 Quarters and before posting a 24-15 victory. Yet to their credit, Northwestern is the only team that has kept Wisconsin below the 25 point threshold which is meaningful inasmuch as Wisconsin is averaging more than 43 points per game.

Northwestern Defense yielded just 130 Yards Rushing and a meager 113 Yards Passing to high powered Wisconsin, the lowest production for Wisconsin this season and it underscores Northwestern’s formidable Defense and it also underscores Wisconsin vulnerabilities.

Although Northwestern has posted a dismal record of 1-4 so far, nevertheless they have played one of the more difficult schedules in the first half of the season, playing four (4) Power 5 opponents including @Stanford, Michigan State, @Nebraska and of course @Wisconsin. In spite of their daunting schedule, Northwestern is yielding just 19 points per game and indeed they held high powered Wisconsin to just 24 points at Camp Randall Stadium.

Of course, by comparison the Spartans beat Northwestern 31-10, posting a 21 point victory margin, and it’s worth noting the Spartans led 31-3 late into the game until yielding a single TD to Northwestern with just 2:41 remaining.

Comparative scores are an imprecise measuring tool at best, yet comparative stats vs common opponents are part of the statistical calculus for any game. A victory vs a common opponent, in this case, the Spartans 31-10 victory at Northwestern, compared to Wisconsin’s 24-15 victory vs Northwestern “at home”, suggests #8 Wisconsin will have their hands full when they host the un-ranked Spartans.

This is a “favorable” match-up for the Spartans Defense: a “sweet spot” for the Spartans Front 7 if you will.

Wisconsin Offense is essentially a “north/south” Offense, with minimal playmaking capability at Quarterback. As we know, the Spartans Defense struggled mightily against playmaking Quarterback’s deployed by Arizona State, Indiana and Ohio State, and while Wisconsin’s Offense is efficient, it can’t be construed as dynamic, nor do they have an uncanny ability to turn broken plays into positive yards. Wisconsin’s Passing Offense ranks #99 in the country by way of averaging a tick over 200 Yards per game: yet against Big Ten competition, Wisconsin’s Passing Offense ranks a dismal #12 at just 120 Yards per game.

Moreover, I think the Spartans Passing Offense which is averaging 260 Yards per game will be the first viable test for Wisconsin’s Passing Defense. While Wisconsin Passing Defense ranks #1 against all opponents, yet when measured in Big Ten competition, their Passing Defense ranks #8 in the Big Ten yielding more than 200 Yards per game, so it would be fair to say, Wisconsin has had their way against three non-Power 5 opponents, yet their Passing Defense against Big Ten opponents illustrates a measurable Defensive weakness.

At the bottom line…who wants it more?

Wisconsin enjoys an advantage at Camp Randall Stadium

In fact, ever since Barry Alvarez accepted the Head Coaching job at Wisconsin in 1990, and then became AD in 2004, Wisconsin has been one of the most consistent programs in the country, and Camp Randall Stadium has become one of the most intimidating venues in all of college football: Wisconsin rarely loses at Camp Randall. Yet, on the Spartans last visit to Camp Randall Stadium in 2012 the Spartans were having an up and down season with Andrew Maxwell at Quarterback, yet posted a 16-13 victory.

The odds makers have installed Wisconsin as a 10.5 point favorite, and of course, the game will be played at Camp Randall Stadium, but the Spartans are desperate…and this is a must win game. Let’s not forget, the Spartans have only lost two games and those two losses were at the hands of two ranked opponents: #18 Arizona State, and #3 Ohio State, so the Spartans are still a formidable football team.

If the Spartans beat Wisconsin they can salvage the season, yet if the wheels come off the cart at Camp Randall Stadium and the Spartans falter, the season could slide into the abyss.

The Spartans are desperate and filled with pride, and so I think the Spartans will rise up, exert their “Will2Win” and hang a “W” at Camp Randall.

 

Bonus Coverage: Jim Harbaugh says his Offense is hitting its stride:

As we know, last winter Jim Harbaugh decided to convert his Offense from “Power Pro Set”, to a more nuanced Offense with “Spread” characteristics, and so he hired a first year Offensive Coordinator, who had never called Offensive plays to install a system he refers to as “Speed in Space”.

Well, how is that system working out?

In the words of Jim Harbaugh, his “Speed in Space” Offense is hitting its stride, so OK…let’s take a look.

• In the opening game vs Middle Tennessee State, the Wolverines rolled up 233 Yards Rushing…220 Yards Passing…453 Yards total and scored 40 points. I guess we would say after the first game of the season, so far so good for “Speed in Space”?
• But then Michigan hosted Army, and against a decidedly smaller, slower and less athletic team, “Speed in Space” managed just 108 Yards Rushing and 340 Yards total, and “Speed in Space” needed two Overtimes to compile 24 points.
• Then Michigan played Wisconsin and managed just 40 Yards Rushing, 299 Yards total and scored 14 points.
• Note: I will respectfully omit Michigan stats compiled against Rutgers as being “statistically meaningless” inasmuch as Rutgers is a rudderless ship that just fired their Head Coach, and Rutgers is arguably amongst the worst football teams in the country, so let’s move on to Michigan’s game against Iowa.
• Michigan posted just 267 Yards against Iowa, and scored a meager 10 points.

And while Jim Harbaugh said his “Speed in Space” Offense is hitting its stride, and while Shea Patterson, Michigan’s Quarterback agreed with his coach, Shea Patterson said: “Right where we want to be…Just getting better and learning and growing every single week”.

Hmmm, the coach and the Quarterback said all is well, so let’s look at the stats:

Michigan opened the season by compiling 453 Yards of Total Offense against Middle Tennessee, then fell to 340 yards against Army…299 Yards vs Wisconsin…and finally 267 Yards vs Iowa, so I’m uncertain where Jim Harbaugh studied statistics, but that’s a linear decline of 186 Yards since the beginning of the season, or an average decline of nearly 50 yards per game.

And when it comes to scoring, Michigan posted 40 points vs Middle Tennessee…then 24 points vs Army…14 Points vs Wisconsin…and 10 Points vs Iowa. That’s a decline of 30 points or an average decline of 7.5 points per game.

Shea Patterson went on to say: “I think there’s a lot that you guys don’t see…the sky’s really the limit for this offense. It’s just a matter of time”, (I guess that’s Patterson’s way of saying he’s smarter than everyone) to which I say, really? Actually Shea, I think we see, what you don’t see, and that is a flailing Offense that is a long, long, long way from hitting any kind of stride.

Nevertheless, tomorrow Michigan will do what Michigan does best, and that is beat the daylights out of an inferior opponent. Tomorrow that opponent is 2-3 Illinois whereby Michigan is a 23 point favorite. But in the next two weeks, Michigan will play @#10 Penn State, followed by #9 Notre Dame…and then finish the season against Michigan State, @Indiana, and finish against #3 Ohio State.

I predict “Speed in Space” will continue to do, what “Speed in Space” does best: beat the daylights out of inferior opponents, and lose to ranked opponents. Meanwhile the unranked Spartans will enjoy the opportunity hand Harbaugh another loss at the Big House.