A lot of good things happened last Saturday that enabled the Spartans to beat Michigan, but the euphoria will quickly be erased if the Spartans are unable to extend their win streak.
While the Spartans managed to beat Michigan, they are nevertheless 7 point underdogs at Iowa.
Iowa is reeling:
For the first time since 2000, Iowa started the season with two consecutive losses and enter the game with an upside down record of 0-2.
More problematically, a major controversy is swirling around their program. Of course, when you have a team with more than 100 athletes recruited from all across the country, there are always extraneous issues that occur between Coaches and young athletes, but Iowa is reeling due to extraordinary allegations of racial discrimination and “bullying”, controversies not normally associated with Head Coach, Kirk Ferentz and his “squeaky clean” program, yet the allegations are underscored by 8 former players seeking $20 Million in reparations.
In 21 years of coaching at Iowa, nothing of that magnitude has ever been alleged about Kirk Ferentz or his staff.
After all, Kirk Ferentz is perceived to be a model of stability, and a model of doing things the right way. We certainly don’t associate “winning at all cost” with Kirk Ferentz. In the big picture, Kirk Ferentz has won more than 60% of his games with nary a whisper of impropriety or misconduct, and since 2001, Ferentz has only failed twice to qualify for Bowl games.
Yet where there is smoke, there is usually fire, and everyone is asking “what’s going on at Iowa?”.
In another controversy, after losing to Northwestern just last weekend, Iowa’s highly regarded WR, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, was suspended after he was arrested for driving while intoxicated at more than 70 MPH in a 30 MPH zone at approximately 3:00 AM last Sunday morning, so the compilation of these issues are distractions that fester and rip at the fabric of a team and make it exceedingly difficult to keep everyone focused on the task at hand.
So, is it fair to ask the question: “has Kirk Ferentz lost his team?”.
In spite of the controversy and in spite of their 0-2 record, Iowa is playing solid, if not great football. Iowa’s margin of loss after two games is a mere 5 points: including a 20-24 loss at Purdue, as well as a 20-21 loss at home to Northwestern, and those opponents enjoy a cumulative won/lost record of 4-0.
So, it would be a mistake to dismiss Iowa.
Iowa will bring pressure:
While Michigan was unable to put Defensive pressure on Rocky Lombardi last weekend, that arguably won’t be the case when the Spartans play at Iowa.
Iowa’s Defense is yielding just 124 Yards Rushing per game, including 3 Sack’s, 6 Tackles for loss and 23 Points per game, so in spite of Iowa’s off field issues, it would be a huge mistake to underestimate Iowa as long as Kirk Ferentz is their Head Football Coach.
Will the real Spartans stand up?
Are the Spartans the team that gained just 50 ‘net’ Yards Rushing, committed 7 Turnovers, yielded 38 Points and seemed discombobulated from start to finish in their 38-27 loss to Rutgers?
Or, are the Spartans the team that compiled nearly 450 Yards of Total Offense, including 323 Yards Passing at nearly 20 Yards per completion, and played with purpose without a single Turnover in their 27-24 victory on the road at Michigan?
Will the real Spartans please stand up?
A victory vs Michigan was joyous for all, but it hides a lot of blemishes, and it would be fair to say the Spartans are a long way from a finished product. Without dissecting a lot of stats, a major problem stands out after two games: the Spartans Rushing Offense ranks a dismal #108 in the land by way of averaging just 88 Yards per game, and when we put that into perspective, those stats are worse than the controversial Rushing Offense that ranked a dismal #113 in the land last year and averaged just 127 Yards per game.
And when measured within the Big Ten, the Spartans Rushing Offense ranks #13 with an average of just 88 Yards per game, while the Top 4 teams in the Big Ten all average more than 200 Yards per game, so the gap is huge.
Of course, the Spartans Passing Offense took the pressure off the Rushing Offense by posting 323 Yards and 3 Touchdowns at Michigan. In fact, the Spartans Passing Offense has exceeded all expectations after two games by averaging more than 320 Yards per game but is it sustainable?
At the bottom line:
After just two games, there are no longer any mysteries regarding “how” the Spartans will deploy their Passing Offense.
While the Spartans Passing Offense surprised Michigan with a “little known” Quarterback, throwing to a cadre of “unknown” Receivers, including Ricky White, Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor, there is a “book” on their tendencies now.
So, the Spartans Passing Offense will arguably continue to be productive, but it is highly unlikely they will average more than 300 Yards Passing at 20 Yards per completion for the entire season, so the Spartans must find some consistent production from their Rushing Offense, certainly north of 150 Yards per game, and they need to start today!
But Iowa Rushing Defense will have their own plan to be disruptive.
In spite of two losses, Iowa Defense remains formidable, yielding just 124 Yards Rushing and just 23 Points per game.
So, the Spartan Offense will arguably need to stay free of Turnovers at Iowa and post at least 150 Yards Rushing, and if they do, then they will put themselves in good position to hang a “W” at Iowa City.
Thank you for reading, and I always welcome your comments and opinions.
