The Spartans have painfully regressed over the past 4 seasons and posted a dismal Big Ten record of just 17 wins, offset by 19 losses, so it would be a huge understatement to say changes are needed to correct course, but what can we expect in terms of new position coaches, coordinators and recruits?
Unfortunately, in terms of coaching changes, Mark Dantonio appears to be staying the course, because the “optimum” time for Mark Dantonio to make meaningful changes has come and gone.
The “early signing period” for recruits commences today, and for better or worse, the fact Mark Dantonio hasn’t announced any meaningful coaching changes is a “key indicator” that organizational changes are highly unlikely. The “early signing period” opens today and concludes on Friday, December 20, and it is expected that 80% of all recruits in the land will confirm their commitments between today and Friday.
There is no perfect time to make coaching changes of course because it is a bit of a Catch 22, yet between the end of the regular season and the “early signing period” is a sweet spot.
If a program reorganizes their coaching staff between the end of the regular season and the “early signing period” there will be some recruiting fallout, yet new position coaches and/or coordinators would enjoy the benefit of working with current players during preparation for a Bowl game, in this case, the Pinstripe Bowl.
It also means, if a coaching staff were to undergo organizational change prior to the “early signing period”, it not only means the program would lose a fair share of prospective recruits who were most familiar with the outgoing staff, but it also places a bowl victory at risk, yet the benefit would be an early start for coaches and players in preparing for next season.
On the other hand, it would be incredibly unsettling and disingenuous to sign recruits during the “early signing period” and then reorganize the coaching staff a month or so thereafter, so the optimum time to execute coaching changes is between the end of the regular season and the “early signing period” and yet the Spartans have remained resolute, steadfast and non-committal. Translation? Don’t expect any changes to the coaching staff, and don’t expect Spartan Football to improve in 2020.
In fact, given the fact the Spartans will commence 2020 with an untested Quarterback, an unsettled Offensive Line, a virtual makeover to the entire Defensive unit, and one of the worst incoming recruiting classes during Mark Dantonio’s tenure, it’s a safe bet the Spartans will regress further in 2020…and if you didn’t think that possible, the stars are quickly aligning.
Let’s look at Spartans 2020 recruiting class:
Recruiting is the lifeblood of college football and yet the Spartans 2020 recruiting class is perhaps the least distinguished during Mark Dantonio’s tenure.
The current recruiting class is ranked a dismal #39 nationally by “Scout. Com” (aka 24/7 Sports) and correspondingly the Spartans rank a deplorable #11 amongst 14 Big Ten teams. In that context, the Spartans 2020 recruiting class would be the least distinguished recruiting class since 2007.
The 2007 recruiting class also ranked #11 when measured against Big Ten teams, but that was Mark Dantonio’s first class, nevertheless he still managed to recruit 4 “4-Stars” players. Problematically this is the first year during Mark Dantonio’s 13 year tenure whereby he has failed to recruit at single “4 Star” player. Make no mistake, recruiting has regressed.
Let’s look historically at Mark Dantonio’s recruiting classes in 3 segments: the formative years 2007 to 2009…the Trophy years 2010 to 2015…and the post trophy years 2017 to 2019. Note: I have excluded 2016 recruiting class inasmuch as that class is a statistical anomaly due to an extraordinary number of suspensions and dismissals due to disciplinary action.
Immediately below are the Spartans average Big Ten recruiting rankings since 2007 according to Scout.com (keep in mind, the lower the numeric value, the higher the quality of recruits):
- 2007-2009: average Big Ten recruiting ranking #8
- 2010-2015: average Big Ten recruiting ranking #4.5
- 2017-2019: average Big Ten recruiting ranking #6.3
Clearly, the Trophy Years from 2010 to 2015 were the most successful in terms of recruiting, and it’s worth noting the Spartans averaged nearly four “4-Stars” in each recruiting class since 2007, in fact the Spartans even recruited 4 “4-Stars” in Mark Dantonio’s first season. So when we consider the 2020 recruiting class is ranked #11 when measured against 14 Big Ten teams (bottom 25th percentile) and when we consider this is Mark Dantonio’s first recruiting class without a single “4-Star” player, the alarm bells start to ring.
Let’s make this clear, within virtually every collegiate roster, 3 Star players are the cement, the glue that holds each team together. The 3-Stars are the journeymen, the “carry the mail” players that form the nucleus, yet Championship teams need 4 and 5 Star playmakers to make a championship run, yet the Spartans were unable to recruit a single “4-Star” in 2020.
By comparison, Ohio State’s 2020 recruiting class is ranked #1 in Big Ten and their class includes two “5-Stars” and fourteen “4-Stars”. Down the road, Michigan is ranked #2 Big Ten including thirteen “4-Stars” and twelve “3-Stars”; Penn State has eleven “4-Stars” and Nebraska will sign seven “4-Stars”; Purdue and Wisconsin will sign three each; while Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota will sign a pair of “4-Stars”, and yet the Spartans are ranked #11 in the Big Ten with zero “4-Stars”?
We need to ask a lot of tough questions:
- Has the Spartan coaching staff lost their appetite, energy and enthusiasm for recruiting?
- Have potential High School recruits tuned out the message of the Spartan coaching staff?
- Have the Spartans Offensive and Defensive schemes proven to be unattractive and/or undesirable for incoming recruits?
- Or has the Spartans poor performance over the past 4 seasons, including a dismal Big Ten record of 17-19 simply rendered Spartan Football as an undesirable destination?
Rest assured, there are a myriad more questions, yet the preceding are the most salient and those are the questions the AD needs to be asking?
If the Spartans hope to improve their performance on the field, they need a new Offensive philosophy and they need playmakers, yet no meaningful coaching changes are anticipated and the 2020 recruiting class is arguably the least distinguished since during Mark Dantonio’s tenure, and this fact is abundantly clear: teams don’t win Big Ten titles with recruiting classes ranked at the bottom of the conference.
Who is advising Mark Dantonio?
To restate the case, a recruiting class ranked #11 in the Big Ten with zero “4-Star” recruits in absolutely unacceptable for a university with the incredible resources of Michigan State University.
John Hannah wouldn’t approve and neither would Biggie Munn, so why would the current President and AD sit and watch and hope for good things to materialize without some measure of intervention? After all, the Spartans should be in the Big Ten Championship hunt each and every season and yet in 3 of the past 4 seasons, the Spartans have been given a humbling and humiliating early exit. By all measures, Spartan Football is becoming irrelevant.
With the “early signing period” commencing today, the AD, the Head Coach and the recruiting coordinator should have been meeting every day since the close of the season to discuss “how in the world” has recruiting fallen to such extraordinarily low levels, and how do we correct course?
They should be asking: How do we improve our our recruiting strategy?” Can we take advantage of the Transfer Portal?
This year’s Heisman Trophy Winner, Joe Burrow utilized the “Transfer Portal” and transferred from Ohio State to LSU just last season. Not only is Joe Burrow an outstanding football player but by all accounts he is a player of exceedingly high character. He is the type of leader every team would want on their roster. Did the Spartans recruiting coordinator advise Mark Dantonio to pursue Joe Burrow or wasn’t it discussed?
I’ll make this assumption: the Spartans didn’t even attempt to pursue Joe Burrow, but how could LSU pursue a Heisman candidate, while the Spartans remained inert?
Moreover, as it relates to the Transfer Portal, the Spartans are minus 8, meaning 8 players have transferred out via the “Transfer Portal”, while Zero players have transferred in. Something is wrong with that ratio.
At the bottom line:
This is a friendly reminder to the Board of Trustees, the President, the AD and the Coaching Staff that they are responsible for overseeing Spartan Football the most visible symbol of Michigan State University. Football is the touchstone, the rallying point and it belongs to the students, ticket holders, donors and more than 500,000 alumni and those partisans are exceedingly unhappy with the downward trend of Spartan Football.
There is an unflattering definition for doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result…there is also an unflattering definition for doing nothing…so the Board, the President, the AD and the coaching staff better take notice, because they are being measured by the standard set by President Hannah and Biggie Munn. If measured today, they are all failing badly, consumed by day to day activity in their personal silos.
At the bottom line, the administration better develop a corrective action plan and fast before Spartan partisans force the issue with not so congenial action!
